May 16, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.03 8.49 -1.50
Sharks 6.54 5.84 0.70
Broncos 6.27 4.36 1.90
Raiders 4.62 9.94 -5.30
Roosters 2.76 -1.17 3.90
Sea Eagles 1.55 -2.98 4.50
Cowboys 1.21 6.90 -5.70
Panthers 0.41 6.08 -5.70
Dragons 0.27 -7.74 8.00
Titans 0.01 -0.98 1.00
Eels -2.20 -0.81 -1.40
Bulldogs -2.68 -1.34 -1.30
Rabbitohs -4.01 -1.82 -2.20
Warriors -4.38 -6.02 1.60
Wests Tigers -6.81 -3.89 -2.90
Knights -12.65 -16.94 4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys May 11 14 – 30 2.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Sharks May 12 14 – 18 -2.50 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs May 12 8 – 28 4.50 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Warriors May 13 36 – 28 9.00 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Titans May 13 36 – 38 12.90 FALSE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 13 14 – 24 0.50 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Raiders May 14 34 – 20 -18.70 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Eels May 14 48 – 10 3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys May 18 Sharks 8.80
2 Warriors vs. Dragons May 19 Dragons -0.70
3 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 19 Broncos 16.60
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles May 20 Titans 2.00
5 Eels vs. Raiders May 20 Raiders -3.30
6 Knights vs. Panthers May 21 Panthers -9.60
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 21 Roosters -1.90
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 21 Storm -7.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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