May 23, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 7.78 4.36 3.40
Storm 7.07 8.49 -1.40
Sharks 6.10 5.84 0.30
Raiders 4.86 9.94 -5.10
Sea Eagles 3.25 -2.98 6.20
Roosters 3.13 -1.17 4.30
Cowboys 1.65 6.90 -5.30
Dragons 1.48 -7.74 9.20
Panthers 0.45 6.08 -5.60
Titans -1.68 -0.98 -0.70
Eels -2.44 -0.81 -1.60
Bulldogs -3.05 -1.34 -1.70
Rabbitohs -4.05 -1.82 -2.20
Warriors -5.59 -6.02 0.40
Wests Tigers -8.31 -3.89 -4.40
Knights -12.69 -16.94 4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys May 18 18 – 14 8.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons May 19 14 – 30 -0.70 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 19 36 – 0 16.60 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles May 20 10 – 30 2.00 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Raiders May 20 16 – 22 -3.30 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Panthers May 21 20 – 30 -9.60 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 21 18 – 24 -1.90 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 21 6 – 14 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 26 Rabbitohs 1.90
2 Warriors vs. Broncos May 27 Broncos -9.40
3 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 27 Sharks 12.60
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 28 Raiders 5.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »