June 13, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.01 8.49 -0.50
Raiders 4.96 9.94 -5.00
Broncos 4.94 4.36 0.60
Sharks 4.67 5.84 -1.20
Roosters 4.17 -1.17 5.30
Cowboys 4.05 6.90 -2.90
Panthers 3.58 6.08 -2.50
Sea Eagles 1.95 -2.98 4.90
Dragons -0.54 -7.74 7.20
Warriors -1.60 -6.02 4.40
Eels -3.57 -0.81 -2.80
Bulldogs -3.76 -1.34 -2.40
Rabbitohs -4.06 -1.82 -2.20
Titans -4.21 -0.98 -3.20
Wests Tigers -8.74 -3.89 -4.80
Knights -11.88 -16.94 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Storm Jun 08 13 – 18 1.20 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jun 09 18 – 14 19.80 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 09 24 – 18 13.80 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 10 12 – 34 5.60 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Jun 10 24 – 20 1.70 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 10 6 – 32 -0.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jun 11 18 – 40 -7.10 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 12 16 – 2 -2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 Rabbitohs 3.70
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 17 Storm 7.50
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 Sharks 16.90
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 18 Eels 0.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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