June 27, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Broncos 6.01 4.36 1.60
Cowboys 4.35 6.90 -2.60
Roosters 4.24 -1.17 5.40
Raiders 3.89 9.94 -6.10
Panthers 3.80 6.08 -2.30
Sea Eagles 3.65 -2.98 6.60
Sharks 1.80 5.84 -4.00
Warriors -1.53 -6.02 4.50
Dragons -2.40 -7.74 5.30
Eels -2.50 -0.81 -1.70
Rabbitohs -3.08 -1.82 -1.30
Bulldogs -3.84 -1.34 -2.50
Titans -4.16 -0.98 -3.20
Wests Tigers -8.61 -3.89 -4.70
Knights -11.10 -16.94 5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Jun 23 21 – 14 6.20 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 23 14 – 26 1.10 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 24 14 – 12 4.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 24 20 – 30 3.50 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 24 25 – 24 0.20 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Jun 25 32 – 28 13.80 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jun 25 18 – 35 5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 29 Eels 4.80
2 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 30 Titans 1.70
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jun 30 Broncos 2.10
4 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 01 Roosters 5.90
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 01 Sea Eagles 5.20
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 01 Raiders 3.00
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 02 Knights 1.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 02 Panthers -3.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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