July 4, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.83 8.49 1.30
Cowboys 5.61 6.90 -1.30
Sharks 4.64 5.84 -1.20
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Sea Eagles 3.54 -2.98 6.50
Raiders 2.64 9.94 -7.30
Panthers 1.43 6.08 -4.70
Roosters 1.40 -1.17 2.60
Rabbitohs -0.70 -1.82 1.10
Warriors -1.42 -6.02 4.60
Eels -2.85 -0.81 -2.00
Dragons -3.07 -7.74 4.70
Titans -3.49 -0.98 -2.50
Bulldogs -3.49 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -6.91 -3.89 -3.00
Knights -12.79 -16.94 4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 29 13 – 12 4.80 TRUE
2 Titan vs. Dragons Jun 30 20 – 10 1.70 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jun 30 12 – 42 2.10 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 01 12 – 44 5.90 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 01 26 – 22 5.20 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 01 18 – 31 3.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 02 12 – 33 1.00 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 02 42 – 14 -3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Jul 07 Roosters 5.60
2 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 08 Panthers 1.40
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 08 Storm 16.20
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 09 Bulldogs 12.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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