July 4, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.92 13.22 4.70
Lions 14.18 7.64 6.50
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Chiefs 8.49 9.75 -1.30
Brumbies 3.44 3.83 -0.40
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Stormers 0.48 1.51 -1.00
Sharks 0.12 0.42 -0.30
Waratahs -0.50 5.81 -6.30
Bulls -3.81 0.29 -4.10
Jaguares -6.17 -4.36 -1.80
Force -8.85 -9.45 0.60
Cheetahs -9.77 -7.36 -2.40
Reds -10.78 -10.28 -0.50
Kings -12.74 -19.02 6.30
Rebels -15.58 -8.17 -7.40
Sunwolves -21.60 -17.76 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 02 34 – 29 14.60 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 03 25 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 03 46 – 31 12.70 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 03 32 – 3 21.60 TRUE
5 Force vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 12 – 34 -22.90 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Kings Jun 30 30 – 31 12.20 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Sunwolves Jul 01 94 – 7 33.30 TRUE
8 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 01 34 – 40 -6.90 TRUE
9 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 01 17 – 30 10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Brumbies -10.70
3 Force vs. Rebels Jul 07 Force 10.20
4 Waratahs vs. Jaguares Jul 08 Waratahs 9.70
5 Bulls vs. Kings Jul 08 Bulls 12.40
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jul 08 Stormers 26.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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