Super 18 Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.92 | 13.22 | 4.70 |
| Lions | 14.18 | 7.64 | 6.50 |
| Crusaders | 13.98 | 8.75 | 5.20 |
| Highlanders | 11.43 | 9.17 | 2.30 |
| Chiefs | 8.49 | 9.75 | -1.30 |
| Brumbies | 3.44 | 3.83 | -0.40 |
| Blues | 2.65 | -1.07 | 3.70 |
| Stormers | 0.48 | 1.51 | -1.00 |
| Sharks | 0.12 | 0.42 | -0.30 |
| Waratahs | -0.50 | 5.81 | -6.30 |
| Bulls | -3.81 | 0.29 | -4.10 |
| Jaguares | -6.17 | -4.36 | -1.80 |
| Force | -8.85 | -9.45 | 0.60 |
| Cheetahs | -9.77 | -7.36 | -2.40 |
| Reds | -10.78 | -10.28 | -0.50 |
| Kings | -12.74 | -19.02 | 6.30 |
| Rebels | -15.58 | -8.17 | -7.40 |
| Sunwolves | -21.60 | -17.76 | -3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Reds | Jun 02 | 34 – 29 | 14.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Jun 03 | 25 – 22 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Waratahs | Jun 03 | 46 – 31 | 12.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Jun 03 | 32 – 3 | 21.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Force vs. Hurricanes | Jun 03 | 12 – 34 | -22.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Jaguares vs. Kings | Jun 30 | 30 – 31 | 12.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Lions vs. Sunwolves | Jul 01 | 94 – 7 | 33.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Cheetahs vs. Stormers | Jul 01 | 34 – 40 | -6.90 | TRUE |
| 9 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Jul 01 | 17 – 30 | 10.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Jul 07 | Brumbies | -10.70 |
| 3 | Force vs. Rebels | Jul 07 | Force | 10.20 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Jaguares | Jul 08 | Waratahs | 9.70 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Kings | Jul 08 | Bulls | 12.40 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Sunwolves | Jul 08 | Stormers | 26.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »