July 12, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.96 13.22 3.70
Lions 14.18 7.64 6.50
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Chiefs 9.45 9.75 -0.30
Brumbies 2.74 3.83 -1.10
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Stormers 1.14 1.51 -0.40
Sharks 0.12 0.42 -0.30
Waratahs -1.86 5.81 -7.70
Bulls -4.61 0.29 -4.90
Jaguares -4.81 -4.36 -0.50
Force -8.93 -9.45 0.50
Cheetahs -9.77 -7.36 -2.40
Reds -10.07 -10.28 0.20
Kings -11.94 -19.02 7.10
Rebels -15.51 -8.17 -7.30
Sunwolves -22.26 -17.76 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 09 14 – 17 12.90 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Jul 07 16 – 15 -10.70 FALSE
3 Force vs. Rebels Jul 07 31 – 22 10.20 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Jaguares Jul 08 27 – 40 9.70 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Kings Jul 08 30 – 31 12.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jul 08 52 – 15 26.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Jul 14 Highlanders 25.50
2 Rebels vs. Jaguares Jul 14 Jaguares -6.70
3 Kings vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 Kings 1.30
4 Sunwolves vs. Blues Jul 15 Blues -20.90
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 15 Chiefs 10.70
6 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jul 15 Hurricanes 6.50
7 Force vs. Waratahs Jul 15 Waratahs -3.60
8 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 15 Lions -10.60
9 Bulls vs. Stormers Jul 15 Stormers -2.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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