Super 18 Predictions for the Semi-finals
Team Ratings for the Semi-finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 17.61 | 13.22 | 4.40 |
| Crusaders | 14.49 | 8.75 | 5.70 |
| Lions | 13.59 | 7.64 | 6.00 |
| Highlanders | 10.62 | 9.17 | 1.50 |
| Chiefs | 9.98 | 9.75 | 0.20 |
| Brumbies | 1.81 | 3.83 | -2.00 |
| Stormers | 1.38 | 1.51 | -0.10 |
| Sharks | 0.72 | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| Blues | -0.22 | -1.07 | 0.90 |
| Waratahs | -3.81 | 5.81 | -9.60 |
| Bulls | -4.96 | 0.29 | -5.20 |
| Jaguares | -5.03 | -4.36 | -0.70 |
| Force | -6.97 | -9.45 | 2.50 |
| Cheetahs | -9.63 | -7.36 | -2.30 |
| Reds | -9.92 | -10.28 | 0.40 |
| Kings | -12.08 | -19.02 | 6.90 |
| Rebels | -15.29 | -8.17 | -7.10 |
| Sunwolves | -19.38 | -17.76 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 139 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brumbies vs. Hurricanes | Jul 21 | 16 – 35 | -10.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Jul 22 | 17 – 0 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jul 22 | 23 – 21 | 18.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Chiefs | Jul 22 | 11 – 17 | -4.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Semi-finals
Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Jul 29 | Crusaders | 8.00 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Hurricanes | Jul 29 | Hurricanes | -0.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi. I follow your StatsChat every week (especially the Super 18 predictions).
For your semi-final predictions can you please tell me what you mean by the Hurricanes winning by -0.00 – is that a draw?
Thank you so much and enjoy your day.
Warm regards
Wendy
7 years ago
That was a prediction for the Hurricanes to win. I never predict a draw because the odds of that are so low.
The negative sign indicates the Hurricanes (away team) to win, -0.00 means that the difference is zero to two decimal places, but the unrounded points calculation is negative.
The other interpretation of this is that the odds are 50:50 on the Hurricanes winning.
7 years ago