July 25, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.61 13.22 4.40
Crusaders 14.49 8.75 5.70
Lions 13.59 7.64 6.00
Highlanders 10.62 9.17 1.50
Chiefs 9.98 9.75 0.20
Brumbies 1.81 3.83 -2.00
Stormers 1.38 1.51 -0.10
Sharks 0.72 0.42 0.30
Blues -0.22 -1.07 0.90
Waratahs -3.81 5.81 -9.60
Bulls -4.96 0.29 -5.20
Jaguares -5.03 -4.36 -0.70
Force -6.97 -9.45 2.50
Cheetahs -9.63 -7.36 -2.30
Reds -9.92 -10.28 0.40
Kings -12.08 -19.02 6.90
Rebels -15.29 -8.17 -7.10
Sunwolves -19.38 -17.76 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jul 21 16 – 35 -10.80 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 22 17 – 0 6.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 22 23 – 21 18.30 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 22 11 – 17 -4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 29 Crusaders 8.00
2 Lions vs. Hurricanes Jul 29 Hurricanes -0.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Wendy Stokes

    Hi. I follow your StatsChat every week (especially the Super 18 predictions).

    For your semi-final predictions can you please tell me what you mean by the Hurricanes winning by -0.00 – is that a draw?

    Thank you so much and enjoy your day.
    Warm regards
    Wendy

    4 weeks ago

    • avatar

      That was a prediction for the Hurricanes to win. I never predict a draw because the odds of that are so low.

      The negative sign indicates the Hurricanes (away team) to win, -0.00 means that the difference is zero to two decimal places, but the unrounded points calculation is negative.

      The other interpretation of this is that the odds are 50:50 on the Hurricanes winning.

      3 weeks ago