August 1, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 22

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.57 8.49 1.10
Cowboys 5.79 6.90 -1.10
Sharks 4.27 5.84 -1.60
Broncos 3.76 4.36 -0.60
Raiders 2.92 9.94 -7.00
Panthers 2.58 6.08 -3.50
Roosters 2.27 -1.17 3.40
Eels 0.68 -0.81 1.50
Sea Eagles -1.33 -2.98 1.60
Dragons -1.45 -7.74 6.30
Rabbitohs -2.85 -1.82 -1.00
Warriors -3.32 -6.02 2.70
Titans -3.91 -0.98 -2.90
Wests Tigers -4.30 -3.89 -0.40
Bulldogs -5.42 -1.34 -4.10
Knights -11.30 -16.94 5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 27 16 – 8 12.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 28 12 – 26 -1.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos Jul 28 28 – 14 -2.10 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Dragons Jul 29 21 – 14 -8.80 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jul 29 18 – 32 -0.10 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 29 22 – 16 -1.20 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 30 40 – 6 10.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 4 – 26 8.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 03 Eels -2.60
2 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Aug 04 Dragons 4.90
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 04 Storm -0.30
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 05 Warriors -4.00
5 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 05 Broncos -4.20
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 05 Sharks 4.90
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 06 Roosters -0.10
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 Panthers 10.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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