August 1, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.71 13.22 3.50
Crusaders 14.85 8.75 6.10
Lions 14.49 7.64 6.90
Highlanders 10.62 9.17 1.50
Chiefs 9.62 9.75 -0.10
Brumbies 1.81 3.83 -2.00
Stormers 1.38 1.51 -0.10
Sharks 0.72 0.42 0.30
Blues -0.22 -1.07 0.90
Waratahs -3.81 5.81 -9.60
Bulls -4.96 0.29 -5.20
Jaguares -5.03 -4.36 -0.70
Force -6.97 -9.45 2.50
Cheetahs -9.63 -7.36 -2.30
Reds -9.92 -10.28 0.40
Kings -12.08 -19.02 6.90
Rebels -15.29 -8.17 -7.10
Sunwolves -19.38 -17.76 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 29 27 – 13 8.00 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Hurricanes Jul 29 44 – 29 -0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Crusaders Aug 05 Lions 3.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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