August 8, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.95 8.49 2.50
Broncos 7.45 4.36 3.10
Raiders 4.68 9.94 -5.30
Cowboys 4.41 6.90 -2.50
Panthers 2.90 6.08 -3.20
Sharks 2.51 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.74 -0.81 2.50
Roosters 0.86 -1.17 2.00
Sea Eagles 0.08 -2.98 3.10
Dragons -2.02 -7.74 5.70
Rabbitohs -2.29 -1.82 -0.50
Wests Tigers -4.63 -3.89 -0.70
Warriors -4.87 -6.02 1.10
Bulldogs -6.48 -1.34 -5.10
Titans -7.60 -0.98 -6.60
Knights -9.75 -16.94 7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 03 4 – 20 -2.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Aug 04 24 – 26 4.90 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 04 8 – 26 -0.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 05 26 – 10 -4.00 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 05 0 – 54 -4.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 05 12 – 30 4.90 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 06 36 – 18 -0.10 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 28 – 14 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 Rabbitohs 7.70
2 Eels vs. Knights Aug 11 Eels 15.00
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Aug 11 Broncos 8.40
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 12 Dragons 9.10
5 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 12 Storm 13.60
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 12 Panthers 2.00
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 13 Raiders -5.50
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 13 Sea Eagles -1.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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