August 22, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.18 14.78 3.40
Taranaki 6.47 7.04 -0.60
Auckland 6.25 6.11 0.10
Tasman 6.14 9.54 -3.40
Counties Manukau 5.56 5.70 -0.10
Waikato 0.31 -0.26 0.60
Otago -0.25 -0.34 0.10
Wellington -0.35 -1.62 1.30
North Harbour -1.37 -1.27 -0.10
Bay of Plenty -4.82 -3.98 -0.80
Manawatu -4.85 -3.59 -1.30
Hawke’s Bay -6.45 -5.85 -0.60
Northland -11.53 -12.37 0.80
Southland -15.90 -16.50 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Aug 17 19 – 17 3.10 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 18 0 – 39 -1.20 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 19 24 – 16 14.70 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 19 34 – 29 11.30 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Aug 19 16 – 14 3.60 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 20 28 – 23 -4.40 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 20 29 – 41 2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 24 North Harbour -10.50
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 25 Bay of Plenty 5.60
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 25 Counties Manukau -1.30
4 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 26 Taranaki -2.80
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 Auckland 21.80
6 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 27 Tasman -7.00
7 Canterbury vs. Otago Aug 27 Canterbury 22.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »