ITM Cup Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 16.54 | 18.09 | -1.50 |
| Tasman | 9.46 | 5.78 | 3.70 |
| Auckland | 4.43 | 4.92 | -0.50 |
| Taranaki | 3.85 | -3.89 | 7.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 3.14 | 2.75 | 0.40 |
| Counties Manukau | 3.13 | 2.40 | 0.70 |
| Otago | -0.99 | -1.45 | 0.50 |
| Wellington | -1.84 | 10.16 | -12.00 |
| Waikato | -4.62 | -1.20 | -3.40 |
| Northland | -5.01 | -8.22 | 3.20 |
| Manawatu | -6.33 | -10.32 | 4.00 |
| Southland | -6.66 | -5.85 | -0.80 |
| North Harbour | -7.20 | -9.77 | 2.60 |
| Bay of Plenty | -9.96 | -5.47 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Canterbury | Sep 24 | 29 – 24 | -27.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Northland | Sep 25 | 27 – 30 | -0.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Auckland | Sep 26 | 35 – 22 | 1.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waikato vs. Manawatu | Sep 27 | 20 – 22 | 7.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Counties Manukau vs. Wellington | Sep 27 | 55 – 7 | 2.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 27 | 28 – 25 | -10.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Tasman vs. Otago | Sep 28 | 32 – 24 | 15.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Canterbury vs. Southland | Sep 28 | 26 – 28 | 34.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington | Oct 01 | Hawke’s Bay | 9.00 |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Oct 02 | Auckland | 13.00 |
| 3 | Northland vs. North Harbour | Oct 03 | Northland | 6.20 |
| 4 | Southland vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 04 | Counties Manukau | -5.80 |
| 5 | Bay of Plenty vs. Otago | Oct 04 | Otago | -5.00 |
| 6 | Canterbury vs. Tasman | Oct 04 | Canterbury | 11.10 |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 05 | Hawke’s Bay | -5.50 |
| 8 | Wellington vs. Taranaki | Oct 05 | Taranaki | -1.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »