Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Quarter Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.
| Current Rating | Rating at RWC Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 26.96 | 29.01 | -2.00 |
| South Africa | 23.39 | 22.73 | 0.70 |
| Australia | 21.66 | 20.36 | 1.30 |
| Ireland | 17.35 | 17.48 | -0.10 |
| England | 16.43 | 18.51 | -2.10 |
| Wales | 13.30 | 13.93 | -0.60 |
| France | 10.41 | 11.70 | -1.30 |
| Argentina | 9.89 | 7.38 | 2.50 |
| Scotland | 5.13 | 4.84 | 0.30 |
| Fiji | -2.19 | -4.23 | 2.00 |
| Samoa | -4.15 | -2.28 | -1.90 |
| Italy | -6.37 | -5.86 | -0.50 |
| Tonga | -8.84 | -6.31 | -2.50 |
| Japan | -9.10 | -11.18 | 2.10 |
| USA | -17.13 | -15.97 | -1.20 |
| Georgia | -17.74 | -17.48 | -0.30 |
| Canada | -17.89 | -18.06 | 0.20 |
| Romania | -19.44 | -21.20 | 1.80 |
| Uruguay | -31.67 | -31.04 | -0.60 |
| Namibia | -33.29 | -35.62 | 2.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand vs. Tonga | Oct 09 | 47 – 9 | 35.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Samoa vs. Scotland | Oct 10 | 33 – 36 | -10.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Australia vs. Wales | Oct 10 | 15 – 6 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | England vs. Uruguay | Oct 10 | 60 – 3 | 54.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Argentina vs. Namibia | Oct 11 | 64 – 19 | 42.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Italy vs. Romania | Oct 11 | 32 – 22 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | France vs. Ireland | Oct 11 | 9 – 24 | -5.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | USA vs. Japan | Oct 11 | 18 – 28 | -7.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Quarter Finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa vs. Wales | Oct 17 | South Africa | 10.10 |
| 2 | New Zealand vs. France | Oct 17 | New Zealand | 16.60 |
| 3 | Ireland vs. Argentina | Oct 18 | Ireland | 7.50 |
| 4 | Australia vs. Scotland | Oct 18 | Australia | 16.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Just one error: Argentina will win. By 14.
9 years ago
Hi,
What makes you say this? Show your work.
9 years ago
Ireland won’t be able to count with some of their best players, and they didn’t showed so much against the poorest french and Italian sides of the world cup history. The irish defense has not been challenged by aggressive attack yet.
In the other hand, Argentina’s game has grown a lot during the rwc, since they narrow lost to ABs.
But the main reason is that I’m a Pumas fan :)
9 years ago
Take a look at the RWC website. France and Italy has some of the poorest numbers in meters, carries, and tackles (france) for tier 1 countries. Also considering they’re defence oriented teams playing in counter attack position.
9 years ago
Going with “Current Highest Rugby Ranking” as a predictor, Ireland would win by around 10 (based on a general regression on results between all countries).
But, leaning a little harder on the regression residuals, Argentina are scoring better in their matches by about 15 points in pool play than the ranking difference indicates they should while Ireland are as expected or fractionally worse. So a slight nod to Argentina, but the result will be due to a single scoring opportunity.
Similarly, the expected result of S.A. vs Wales based solely on current ranking is Wales by 2, however South Africa’s ranking is much lower than their scoring suggests it should be (basically, because they played the vastly improved Japanese side so gave some of their rank to Japan) and that scoring above what is expected shifts it strongly into a South African win.
9 years ago
23 points dofference just because the yellow card. Should be 40.
9 years ago