July 25, 2016

Causation implies correlation (almost)

As we all know, variables can easily be correlated when they don’t really have anything to do with each other — especially time series.  There aren’t enough types of trend over time to go around, so variables have to share. tylervigen.com takes advantage of this by making graphs of entertainingly spurious correlations:

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In the other direction, though, the correlations can be more convincing.  When you see a story claiming that WiFi and cellphones cause Alzheimer’s Disease–

Scientists are still trying to figure out just how much damage the electromagnetic signals emitted from WiFi equipment can actually do to the human brain. But by potentially preventing our brains from flushing beta-amyloid—just by being in close proximity—it’s clear these devices already have the potential for serious damage.

–it’s reassuring to remember that as WiFi has become more common, rates of dementia at a given age have gone down, not up.

It’s logically possible that dementia rates would be going down faster if not for technology, but you’d want pretty good evidence before you started believing that — starting with some sign that the people making the claims understood the basic disease trends.

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »