July 27, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 11.19 7.26 3.90
Chiefs 9.46 2.68 6.80
Highlanders 8.92 6.80 2.10
Crusaders 8.25 9.84 -1.60
Lions 6.09 -1.80 7.90
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Brumbies 2.91 3.15 -0.20
Stormers 0.12 -0.62 0.70
Sharks -0.91 -1.64 0.70
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jul 22 9 – 15 -1.50 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Jul 22 41 – 0 12.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Crusaders Jul 23 42 – 25 -0.20 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 23 21 – 60 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 30 Hurricanes 5.20
2 Lions vs. Highlanders Jul 30 Lions 1.20

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »