Posts written by David Scott (393)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 27, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Broncos 6.01 4.36 1.60
Cowboys 4.35 6.90 -2.60
Roosters 4.24 -1.17 5.40
Raiders 3.89 9.94 -6.10
Panthers 3.80 6.08 -2.30
Sea Eagles 3.65 -2.98 6.60
Sharks 1.80 5.84 -4.00
Warriors -1.53 -6.02 4.50
Dragons -2.40 -7.74 5.30
Eels -2.50 -0.81 -1.70
Rabbitohs -3.08 -1.82 -1.30
Bulldogs -3.84 -1.34 -2.50
Titans -4.16 -0.98 -3.20
Wests Tigers -8.61 -3.89 -4.70
Knights -11.10 -16.94 5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Jun 23 21 – 14 6.20 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 23 14 – 26 1.10 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 24 14 – 12 4.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 24 20 – 30 3.50 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 24 25 – 24 0.20 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Jun 25 32 – 28 13.80 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jun 25 18 – 35 5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 29 Eels 4.80
2 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 30 Titans 1.70
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jun 30 Broncos 2.10
4 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 01 Roosters 5.90
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 01 Sea Eagles 5.20
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 01 Raiders 3.00
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 02 Knights 1.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 02 Panthers -3.40

 

June 21, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.48 8.49 -1.00
Raiders 4.96 9.94 -5.00
Broncos 4.94 4.36 0.60
Cowboys 4.58 6.90 -2.30
Roosters 4.17 -1.17 5.30
Panthers 3.58 6.08 -2.50
Sharks 3.50 5.84 -2.30
Sea Eagles 1.95 -2.98 4.90
Warriors -1.60 -6.02 4.40
Dragons -1.61 -7.74 6.10
Eels -2.50 -0.81 -1.70
Rabbitohs -3.08 -1.82 -1.30
Bulldogs -3.76 -1.34 -2.40
Titans -5.19 -0.98 -4.20
Wests Tigers -7.57 -3.89 -3.70
Knights -11.88 -16.94 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 36 – 20 3.70 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 17 23 – 22 7.50 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 24 – 22 16.90 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 18 24 – 10 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Jun 23 Warriors 6.20
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 23 Wests Tigers 1.10
3 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 24 Cowboys 4.50
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 24 Raiders 3.50
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 24 Roosters 0.20
6 Dragons vs. Knights Jun 25 Dragons 13.80
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jun 25 Sharks 5.00

 

June 13, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.01 8.49 -0.50
Raiders 4.96 9.94 -5.00
Broncos 4.94 4.36 0.60
Sharks 4.67 5.84 -1.20
Roosters 4.17 -1.17 5.30
Cowboys 4.05 6.90 -2.90
Panthers 3.58 6.08 -2.50
Sea Eagles 1.95 -2.98 4.90
Dragons -0.54 -7.74 7.20
Warriors -1.60 -6.02 4.40
Eels -3.57 -0.81 -2.80
Bulldogs -3.76 -1.34 -2.40
Rabbitohs -4.06 -1.82 -2.20
Titans -4.21 -0.98 -3.20
Wests Tigers -8.74 -3.89 -4.80
Knights -11.88 -16.94 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Storm Jun 08 13 – 18 1.20 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jun 09 18 – 14 19.80 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 09 24 – 18 13.80 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 10 12 – 34 5.60 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Jun 10 24 – 20 1.70 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 10 6 – 32 -0.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jun 11 18 – 40 -7.10 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 12 16 – 2 -2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 Rabbitohs 3.70
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 17 Storm 7.50
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 Sharks 16.90
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 18 Eels 0.50

 

June 7, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 16 Game, Hurricanes vs Chiefs

Team Ratings for Round 16 Game, Hurricanes vs Chiefs

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

This week is pretty crazy, just one game from round 16 when round 15 has not been completed and won’t be for a month.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.92 13.22 4.70
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Lions 10.96 7.64 3.30
Chiefs 8.49 9.75 -1.30
Brumbies 3.44 3.83 -0.40
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Sharks 1.52 0.42 1.10
Stormers 0.53 1.51 -1.00
Waratahs -0.50 5.81 -6.30
Bulls -5.20 0.29 -5.50
Jaguares -5.38 -4.36 -1.00
Force -8.85 -9.45 0.60
Cheetahs -9.83 -7.36 -2.50
Reds -10.78 -10.28 -0.50
Kings -13.53 -19.02 5.50
Rebels -15.58 -8.17 -7.40
Sunwolves -18.38 -17.76 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 02 34 – 29 14.60 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 03 25 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 03 46 – 31 12.70 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 03 32 – 3 21.60 TRUE
5 Force vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 12 – 34 -22.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16, Hurricanes vs. Chiefs

Here are the predictions for the Round 16 game this week. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 09 Hurricanes 12.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.50 8.49 -1.00
Broncos 5.57 4.36 1.20
Sharks 5.18 5.84 -0.70
Raiders 5.17 9.94 -4.80
Panthers 3.37 6.08 -2.70
Sea Eagles 3.19 -2.98 6.20
Roosters 3.00 -1.17 4.20
Cowboys 2.07 6.90 -4.80
Dragons 0.73 -7.74 8.50
Eels -1.60 -0.81 -0.80
Titans -2.11 -0.98 -1.10
Warriors -3.71 -6.02 2.30
Rabbitohs -4.69 -1.82 -2.90
Bulldogs -5.04 -1.34 -3.70
Wests Tigers -7.57 -3.89 -3.70
Knights -13.12 -16.94 3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Knights Jun 02 40 – 12 23.30 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Warriors Jun 02 32 – 24 5.70 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jun 03 16 – 12 13.30 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Broncos Jun 03 18 – 16 0.70 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Jun 03 20 – 8 6.80 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jun 04 21 – 20 1.60 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Jun 04 0 – 38 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Storm Jun 08 Sharks 1.20
2 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jun 09 Sea Eagles 19.80
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 09 Broncos 13.80
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 10 Titans 5.60
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Jun 10 Panthers 1.70
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 10 Cowboys -0.20
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jun 11 Roosters -7.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 12 Dragons -2.30

May 30, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.97 13.22 4.70
Crusaders 14.19 8.75 5.40
Highlanders 11.22 9.17 2.10
Lions 9.87 7.64 2.20
Chiefs 8.35 9.75 -1.40
Blues 3.23 -1.07 4.30
Brumbies 3.00 3.83 -0.80
Sharks 1.52 0.42 1.10
Stormers 0.53 1.51 -1.00
Waratahs -0.36 5.81 -6.20
Bulls -5.20 0.29 -5.50
Jaguares -5.38 -4.36 -1.00
Force -8.90 -9.45 0.60
Cheetahs -9.83 -7.36 -2.50
Reds -11.35 -10.28 -1.10
Kings -12.44 -19.02 6.60
Rebels -15.14 -8.17 -7.00
Sunwolves -18.38 -17.76 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs May 26 16 – 16 -1.80 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Force May 26 26 – 40 3.10 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs May 27 17 – 38 -2.30 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 27 44 – 28 15.50 TRUE
5 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 27 19 – 41 -25.80 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 27 20 – 34 -19.90 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 27 22 – 10 3.50 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Brumbies May 27 15 – 39 -1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 02 Blues 18.60
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 03 Crusaders 6.50
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 03 Chiefs 12.70
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 03 Brumbies 21.60
5 Force vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 Hurricanes -22.90
6 Jaguares vs. Kings Jun 30 Jaguares 11.10
7 Lions vs. Sunwolves Jul 01 Lions 32.30
8 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 01 Stormers -6.90
9 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 01 Sharks 10.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.07 8.49 -1.40
Broncos 5.69 4.36 1.30
Sharks 5.18 5.84 -0.70
Raiders 5.11 9.94 -4.80
Sea Eagles 3.25 -2.98 6.20
Roosters 2.88 -1.17 4.00
Cowboys 1.65 6.90 -5.30
Dragons 1.48 -7.74 9.20
Panthers 0.45 6.08 -5.60
Titans -1.68 -0.98 -0.70
Eels -1.80 -0.81 -1.00
Bulldogs -2.12 -1.34 -0.80
Warriors -3.50 -6.02 2.50
Rabbitohs -4.69 -1.82 -2.90
Wests Tigers -8.31 -3.89 -4.40
Knights -12.69 -16.94 4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 26 16 – 22 1.90 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Broncos May 27 28 – 10 -9.40 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 27 9 – 8 12.60 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 28 24 – 16 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Knights Jun 02 Storm 23.30
2 Eels vs. Warriors Jun 02 Eels 5.70
3 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jun 03 Dragons 13.30
4 Roosters vs. Broncos Jun 03 Roosters 0.70
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Jun 03 Cowboys 6.80
6 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jun 04 Sea Eagles 1.60
7 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Jun 04 Bulldogs 0.90

 

May 23, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 18.33 13.22 5.10
Crusaders 14.42 8.75 5.70
Highlanders 11.19 9.17 2.00
Lions 9.87 7.64 2.20
Chiefs 8.46 9.75 -1.30
Blues 3.12 -1.07 4.20
Brumbies 1.66 3.83 -2.20
Stormers 1.04 1.51 -0.50
Sharks 1.00 0.42 0.60
Waratahs -0.33 5.81 -6.10
Jaguares -4.04 -4.36 0.30
Bulls -5.55 0.29 -5.80
Force -9.93 -9.45 -0.50
Reds -10.32 -10.28 -0.00
Cheetahs -10.95 -7.36 -3.60
Kings -12.44 -19.02 6.60
Rebels -15.37 -8.17 -7.20
Sunwolves -17.26 -17.76 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 19 24 – 31 -5.80 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Blues May 19 30 – 22 1.10 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs May 20 61 – 7 30.40 TRUE
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 20 6 – 55 -12.80 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks May 20 17 – 38 -13.30 TRUE
6 Kings vs. Brumbies May 20 10 – 19 -10.30 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Bulls May 20 51 – 14 16.50 TRUE
8 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 21 50 – 23 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs May 26 Chiefs -1.80
2 Reds vs. Force May 26 Reds 3.10
3 Sunwolves vs. Cheetahs May 27 Cheetahs -2.30
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 27 Highlanders 15.50
5 Rebels vs. Crusaders May 27 Crusaders -25.80
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 27 Hurricanes -19.90
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 27 Sharks 3.50
8 Jaguares vs. Brumbies May 27 Brumbies -1.70
9 Lions vs. Kings May 28 Lions 25.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 7.78 4.36 3.40
Storm 7.07 8.49 -1.40
Sharks 6.10 5.84 0.30
Raiders 4.86 9.94 -5.10
Sea Eagles 3.25 -2.98 6.20
Roosters 3.13 -1.17 4.30
Cowboys 1.65 6.90 -5.30
Dragons 1.48 -7.74 9.20
Panthers 0.45 6.08 -5.60
Titans -1.68 -0.98 -0.70
Eels -2.44 -0.81 -1.60
Bulldogs -3.05 -1.34 -1.70
Rabbitohs -4.05 -1.82 -2.20
Warriors -5.59 -6.02 0.40
Wests Tigers -8.31 -3.89 -4.40
Knights -12.69 -16.94 4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys May 18 18 – 14 8.80 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons May 19 14 – 30 -0.70 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 19 36 – 0 16.60 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles May 20 10 – 30 2.00 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Raiders May 20 16 – 22 -3.30 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Panthers May 21 20 – 30 -9.60 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 21 18 – 24 -1.90 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 21 6 – 14 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 26 Rabbitohs 1.90
2 Warriors vs. Broncos May 27 Broncos -9.40
3 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 27 Sharks 12.60
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 28 Raiders 5.20

 

May 16, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.70 13.22 3.50
Crusaders 14.56 8.75 5.80
Highlanders 9.02 9.17 -0.10
Lions 8.64 7.64 1.00
Chiefs 8.54 9.75 -1.20
Blues 3.53 -1.07 4.60
Brumbies 1.74 3.83 -2.10
Stormers 0.63 1.51 -0.90
Sharks 0.54 0.42 0.10
Waratahs -0.91 5.81 -6.70
Jaguares -4.04 -4.36 0.30
Bulls -4.32 0.29 -4.60
Force -7.76 -9.45 1.70
Cheetahs -9.53 -7.36 -2.20
Reds -10.32 -10.28 -0.00
Kings -12.52 -19.02 6.50
Rebels -14.79 -8.17 -6.60
Sunwolves -16.80 -17.76 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Cheetahs May 12 50 – 32 16.90 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Lions May 12 6 – 13 -2.30 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 13 20 – 12 -3.50 FALSE
4 Rebels vs. Reds May 13 24 – 29 -0.40 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Highlanders May 13 10 – 17 -9.70 TRUE
6 Kings vs. Sharks May 13 35 – 32 -11.30 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Force May 13 6 – 16 10.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -2.50
2 Stormers vs. Blues May 19 Stormers 1.10
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs May 20 Hurricanes 30.20
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 20 Highlanders -12.80
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks May 20 Sharks -13.30
6 Kings vs. Brumbies May 20 Brumbies -10.30
7 Lions vs. Bulls May 20 Lions 16.50
8 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 21 Waratahs 17.40