Posts written by David Scott (172)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 30, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sea Eagles 9.18 9.10 0.10
Rabbitohs 7.48 5.82 1.70
Roosters 7.09 12.35 -5.30
Cowboys 4.89 6.01 -1.10
Warriors 4.38 -0.72 5.10
Storm 2.94 7.64 -4.70
Broncos 0.81 -4.69 5.50
Panthers -0.02 -2.48 2.50
Bulldogs -0.76 2.46 -3.20
Knights -1.30 5.23 -6.50
Dragons -2.44 -7.57 5.10
Titans -5.06 1.45 -6.50
Raiders -6.23 -8.99 2.80
Wests Tigers -6.81 -11.26 4.50
Sharks -7.26 2.32 -9.60
Eels -8.66 -18.45 9.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 25 16 – 12 -5.80 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 25 8 – 30 7.40 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 26 16 – 18 14.80 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 26 18 – 24 11.20 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Jul 26 12 – 20 0.50 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 12 – 22 1.90 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Jul 27 12 – 28 3.60 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 18 – 34 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 Sea Eagles 12.90
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 01 Bulldogs 3.80
3 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 02 Sharks 5.90
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Aug 02 Cowboys 14.50
5 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 02 Roosters 14.00
6 Raiders vs. Warriors Aug 03 Warriors -6.10
7 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 03 Rabbitohs 13.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Aug 04 Storm -5.20

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 10.21 1.67 8.50
Crusaders 10.20 8.80 1.40
Sharks 3.91 4.57 -0.70
Hurricanes 2.89 -1.44 4.30
Bulls 2.88 4.87 -2.00
Chiefs 2.23 4.38 -2.10
Brumbies 2.20 4.12 -1.90
Stormers 1.68 4.38 -2.70
Blues 1.44 -1.92 3.40
Highlanders -2.54 -4.48 1.90
Lions -3.39 -6.93 3.50
Force -4.67 -5.37 0.70
Reds -4.98 0.58 -5.60
Cheetahs -5.55 0.12 -5.70
Rebels -9.53 -6.36 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 26 38 – 6 7.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 26 26 – 8 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Aug 02 Waratahs 4.00

 

July 23, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sea Eagles 8.06 9.10 -1.00
Roosters 8.02 12.35 -4.30
Rabbitohs 6.67 5.82 0.90
Warriors 5.50 -0.72 6.20
Cowboys 4.07 6.01 -1.90
Broncos 3.33 -4.69 8.00
Panthers 1.50 -2.48 4.00
Storm 0.42 7.64 -7.20
Bulldogs 0.06 2.46 -2.40
Knights -2.24 5.23 -7.50
Titans -3.51 1.45 -5.00
Dragons -4.19 -7.57 3.40
Wests Tigers -5.06 -11.26 6.20
Raiders -5.42 -8.99 3.60
Sharks -8.78 2.32 -11.10
Eels -10.21 -18.45 8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jul 18 18 – 36 -6.10 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 12 – 32 -10.60 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Panthers Jul 19 32 – 12 8.90 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 19 28 – 14 9.40 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 19 28 – 22 1.40 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Titans Jul 20 8 – 22 10.00 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Jul 20 46 – 18 -6.40 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 21 12 – 21 -7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 25 Roosters -5.80
2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 25 Broncos 7.40
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 26 Panthers 14.80
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 26 Titans 11.20
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Jul 26 Bulldogs 0.50
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 Warriors 1.90
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Jul 27 Wests Tigers 3.60
8 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 Rabbitohs -7.60

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 9.66 1.67 8.00
Crusaders 8.78 8.80 -0.00
Sharks 5.34 4.57 0.80
Hurricanes 2.89 -1.44 4.30
Bulls 2.88 4.87 -2.00
Brumbies 2.76 4.12 -1.40
Chiefs 2.23 4.38 -2.10
Stormers 1.68 4.38 -2.70
Blues 1.44 -1.92 3.40
Highlanders -2.54 -4.48 1.90
Lions -3.39 -6.93 3.50
Force -4.67 -5.37 0.70
Reds -4.98 0.58 -5.60
Cheetahs -5.55 0.12 -5.70
Rebels -9.53 -6.36 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Jul 19 32 – 30 5.00 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Highlanders Jul 19 31 – 27 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 26 Crusaders 7.40
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 26 Waratahs 9.40

 

July 17, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sea Eagles 7.87 9.10 -1.20
Roosters 6.97 12.35 -5.40
Warriors 5.98 -0.72 6.70
Rabbitohs 5.76 5.82 -0.10
Cowboys 2.96 6.01 -3.10
Bulldogs 2.96 2.46 0.50
Broncos 2.85 -4.69 7.50
Panthers 2.54 -2.48 5.00
Storm -0.05 7.64 -7.70
Knights -0.14 5.23 -5.40
Dragons -4.01 -7.57 3.60
Raiders -4.94 -8.99 4.10
Titans -5.61 1.45 -7.10
Sharks -7.67 2.32 -10.00
Wests Tigers -7.96 -11.26 3.30
Eels -9.30 -18.45 9.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 11 40 – 8 17.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Eels Jul 12 48 – 0 14.10 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 4 – 6 2.40 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Raiders Jul 13 20 – 36 8.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 13 18 – 31 -0.70 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 14 35 – 34 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jul 18 Cowboys -6.10
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 Rabbitohs -10.60
3 Roosters vs. Panthers Jul 19 Roosters 8.90
4 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 19 Storm 9.40
5 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 19 Broncos 1.40
6 Knights vs. Titans Jul 20 Knights 10.00
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Jul 20 Bulldogs -6.40
8 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 21 Sea Eagles -7.40

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 9.66 1.67 8.00
Crusaders 8.78 8.80 -0.00
Sharks 5.92 4.57 1.40
Brumbies 2.97 4.12 -1.10
Hurricanes 2.89 -1.44 4.30
Bulls 2.88 4.87 -2.00
Chiefs 2.02 4.38 -2.40
Stormers 1.68 4.38 -2.70
Blues 1.44 -1.92 3.40
Highlanders -3.12 -4.48 1.40
Lions -3.39 -6.93 3.50
Force -4.67 -5.37 0.70
Reds -4.98 0.58 -5.60
Cheetahs -5.55 0.12 -5.70
Rebels -9.53 -6.36 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 11 8 – 11 2.70 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Jul 11 47 – 25 8.50 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Rebels Jul 11 40 – 7 14.20 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 12 34 – 8 12.80 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 12 3 – 34 -9.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Cheetahs Jul 12 60 – 25 0.80 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 12 10 – 29 0.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Jul 19 Brumbies 5.00
2 Sharks vs. Highlanders Jul 19 Sharks 13.00

 

July 9, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 6.97 12.35 -5.40
Sea Eagles 6.56 9.10 -2.50
Rabbitohs 5.76 5.82 -0.10
Warriors 3.11 -0.72 3.80
Cowboys 2.96 6.01 -3.10
Panthers 2.96 -2.48 5.40
Bulldogs 2.50 2.46 0.00
Broncos 2.43 -4.69 7.10
Storm 0.40 7.64 -7.20
Knights -1.29 5.23 -6.50
Titans -3.51 1.45 -5.00
Dragons -4.01 -7.57 3.60
Eels -6.44 -18.45 12.00
Sharks -6.52 2.32 -8.80
Wests Tigers -6.64 -11.26 4.60
Raiders -7.04 -8.99 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 04 23 – 16 -1.10 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 05 27 – 24 -3.80 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 05 28 – 30 22.20 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 06 10 – 26 -2.60 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jul 07 10 – 14 17.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 11 Sea Eagles 17.70
2 Warriors vs. Eels Jul 12 Warriors 14.10
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 Storm 2.40
4 Titans vs. Raiders Jul 13 Titans 8.00
5 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 13 Knights -0.70
6 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 14 Panthers 5.00

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 8.40 1.67 6.70
Crusaders 7.96 8.80 -0.80
Sharks 4.75 4.57 0.20
Hurricanes 2.89 -1.44 4.30
Stormers 2.85 4.38 -1.50
Brumbies 2.13 4.12 -2.00
Blues 1.82 -1.92 3.70
Bulls 1.76 4.87 -3.10
Chiefs 1.63 4.38 -2.70
Highlanders -2.30 -4.48 2.20
Cheetahs -3.62 0.12 -3.70
Reds -3.72 0.58 -4.30
Force -3.84 -5.37 1.50
Lions -5.31 -6.93 1.60
Rebels -8.41 -6.36 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 04 24 – 16 0.20 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 04 34 – 17 5.70 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 05 21 – 13 8.80 TRUE
4 Force vs. Reds Jul 05 30 – 20 1.30 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jul 05 16 – 0 1.90 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 05 27 – 20 -7.70 FALSE
7 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jul 06 44 – 16 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 11 Blues 2.70
2 Brumbies vs. Force Jul 11 Brumbies 8.50
3 Bulls vs. Rebels Jul 11 Bulls 14.20
4 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 12 Crusaders 12.80
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 12 Waratahs -9.60
6 Lions vs. Cheetahs Jul 12 Lions 0.80
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 12 Stormers 0.60

 

July 3, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.09 12.35 -3.30
Rabbitohs 7.67 5.82 1.90
Sea Eagles 7.35 9.10 -1.70
Cowboys 3.63 6.01 -2.40
Warriors 3.11 -0.72 3.80
Broncos 2.43 -4.69 7.10
Panthers 1.72 -2.48 4.20
Bulldogs 1.71 2.46 -0.80
Storm 0.40 7.64 -7.20
Knights -1.29 5.23 -6.50
Dragons -4.68 -7.57 2.90
Titans -5.41 1.45 -6.90
Wests Tigers -5.41 -11.26 5.90
Eels -6.44 -18.45 12.00
Raiders -7.04 -8.99 2.00
Sharks -8.63 2.32 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 117 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jun 27 24 – 16 1.50 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 27 22 – 24 19.30 FALSE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 28 19 – 18 7.40 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Jun 28 20 – 18 0.00 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 29 30 – 20 4.80 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Knights Jun 29 10 – 16 0.70 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Storm Jun 30 24 – 12 -3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 04 Sea Eagles -1.10
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 05 Cowboys -3.80
3 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 05 Roosters 22.20
4 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 06 Panthers -2.60
5 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jul 07 Rabbitohs 17.60

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.02 8.80 -0.80
Waratahs 7.48 1.67 5.80
Sharks 5.65 4.57 1.10
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.44 4.80
Bulls 2.62 4.87 -2.30
Brumbies 2.13 4.12 -2.00
Stormers 1.98 4.38 -2.40
Blues 1.76 -1.92 3.70
Chiefs 1.13 4.38 -3.20
Highlanders -1.37 -4.48 3.10
Reds -3.16 0.58 -3.70
Force -4.40 -5.37 1.00
Cheetahs -4.52 0.12 -4.60
Lions -6.02 -6.93 0.90
Rebels -7.70 -6.36 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 27 29 – 25 -0.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Jun 27 20 – 36 -0.10 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jun 28 16 – 9 -3.40 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jun 28 39 – 8 4.80 TRUE
5 Force vs. Blues Jun 28 14 – 40 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jul 04 Chiefs 0.20
2 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 04 Lions 5.70
3 Crusaders vs. Blues Jul 05 Crusaders 8.80
4 Force vs. Reds Jul 05 Force 1.30
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jul 05 Stormers 1.90
6 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 05 Sharks -7.70
7 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Waratahs 12.90