Posts written by David Scott (412)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 15, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.10 8.49 1.60
Broncos 8.52 4.36 4.20
Raiders 5.81 9.94 -4.10
Cowboys 3.91 6.90 -3.00
Panthers 3.40 6.08 -2.70
Roosters 1.71 -1.17 2.90
Sharks 1.44 5.84 -4.40
Sea Eagles -0.35 -2.98 2.60
Dragons -0.69 -7.74 7.00
Eels -0.83 -0.81 -0.00
Rabbitohs -1.77 -1.82 0.00
Wests Tigers -4.19 -3.89 -0.30
Warriors -6.01 -6.02 0.00
Bulldogs -6.99 -1.34 -5.70
Knights -7.19 -16.94 9.70
Titans -8.92 -0.98 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 28 – 14 7.70 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Knights Aug 11 10 – 29 15.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Aug 11 32 – 10 8.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 12 42 – 16 9.10 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 12 16 – 13 13.60 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 12 24 – 16 2.00 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 13 16 – 36 -5.50 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 13 30 – 26 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Titans Aug 17 Eels 11.60
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 18 Rabbitohs 8.20
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 18 Broncos 12.70
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -13.80
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 Roosters 9.40
6 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 19 Cowboys 6.00
7 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 20 Raiders 5.90
8 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 20 Sea Eagles -3.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.88 4.33 0.50
Lions 4.54 7.41 -2.90
Sharks 3.67 2.15 1.50
Western Province 2.47 3.30 -0.80
Blue Bulls 1.90 2.32 -0.40
Griquas -10.00 -11.62 1.60
Pumas -10.20 -10.63 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 12 31 – 47 6.80 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 12 45 – 34 3.90 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 12 25 – 30 20.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 18 Western Province 2.40
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 Blue Bulls 1.50
3 Griquas vs. Pumas Aug 20 Griquas 4.70

 

August 14, 2017

Belated Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

What Happened?

My apologies for the late predictions. Note first of all that they are exactly as I would have made them prior to the games being played because I just run my programs to implement the prediction algorithm. The results should help you believe that, I only got two correct.

Why did I miss this? I never expected such a schedule with some teams playing 3 games in 8 days, not to mention the Lions having only two games in 8 days apart and the Pumas only having to play 2 games.

Are there any more weeks like that? Surely this has been controversial in South Africa.

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.66 4.33 1.30
Lions 5.25 7.41 -2.20
Sharks 2.96 2.15 0.80
Blue Bulls 2.46 2.32 0.10
Western Province 1.91 3.30 -1.40
Pumas -10.20 -10.63 0.40
Griquas -10.78 -11.62 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 09 20 – 28 5.00 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 09 34 – 45 -11.40 TRUE
3 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 09 44 – 34 -9.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 12 Lions 6.80
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 12 Western Province 3.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 12 Cheetahs 20.90

 

August 8, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.95 8.49 2.50
Broncos 7.45 4.36 3.10
Raiders 4.68 9.94 -5.30
Cowboys 4.41 6.90 -2.50
Panthers 2.90 6.08 -3.20
Sharks 2.51 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.74 -0.81 2.50
Roosters 0.86 -1.17 2.00
Sea Eagles 0.08 -2.98 3.10
Dragons -2.02 -7.74 5.70
Rabbitohs -2.29 -1.82 -0.50
Wests Tigers -4.63 -3.89 -0.70
Warriors -4.87 -6.02 1.10
Bulldogs -6.48 -1.34 -5.10
Titans -7.60 -0.98 -6.60
Knights -9.75 -16.94 7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 03 4 – 20 -2.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Aug 04 24 – 26 4.90 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 04 8 – 26 -0.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 05 26 – 10 -4.00 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 05 0 – 54 -4.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 05 12 – 30 4.90 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 06 36 – 18 -0.10 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 28 – 14 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 Rabbitohs 7.70
2 Eels vs. Knights Aug 11 Eels 15.00
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Aug 11 Broncos 8.40
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 12 Dragons 9.10
5 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 12 Storm 13.60
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 12 Panthers 2.00
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 13 Raiders -5.50
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 13 Sea Eagles -1.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.78 14.78 0.00
Tasman 9.54 9.54 0.00
Taranaki 7.04 7.04 0.00
Auckland 6.11 6.11 0.00
Counties Manukau 5.70 5.70 0.00
Waikato -0.26 -0.26 0.00
Otago -0.34 -0.34 0.00
North Harbour -1.27 -1.27 0.00
Wellington -1.62 -1.62 0.00
Manawatu -3.59 -3.59 0.00
Bay of Plenty -3.98 -3.98 0.00
Hawke’s Bay -5.85 -5.85 0.00
Northland -12.37 -12.37 0.00
Southland -16.50 -16.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Aug 17 North Harbour 3.10
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 18 Canterbury -1.20
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 19 Hawke’s Bay 14.70
4 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 19 Taranaki 11.30
5 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Aug 19 Counties Manukau 3.60
6 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 20 Bay of Plenty -4.40
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 20 Manawatu 2.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.69 4.33 1.40
Lions 5.25 7.41 -2.20
Blue Bulls 2.94 2.32 0.60
Western Province 2.55 3.30 -0.70
Sharks 2.48 2.15 0.30
Pumas -10.24 -10.63 0.40
Griquas -11.42 -11.62 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 88.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 04 41 – 3 17.10 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Aug 05 54 – 22 0.40 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 05 34 – 19 17.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 09 Blue Bulls 5.00
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 09 Cheetahs -11.40
3 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 09 Western Province -9.50

 

August 1, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.71 13.22 3.50
Crusaders 14.85 8.75 6.10
Lions 14.49 7.64 6.90
Highlanders 10.62 9.17 1.50
Chiefs 9.62 9.75 -0.10
Brumbies 1.81 3.83 -2.00
Stormers 1.38 1.51 -0.10
Sharks 0.72 0.42 0.30
Blues -0.22 -1.07 0.90
Waratahs -3.81 5.81 -9.60
Bulls -4.96 0.29 -5.20
Jaguares -5.03 -4.36 -0.70
Force -6.97 -9.45 2.50
Cheetahs -9.63 -7.36 -2.30
Reds -9.92 -10.28 0.40
Kings -12.08 -19.02 6.90
Rebels -15.29 -8.17 -7.10
Sunwolves -19.38 -17.76 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 29 27 – 13 8.00 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Hurricanes Jul 29 44 – 29 -0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Crusaders Aug 05 Lions 3.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 22

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.57 8.49 1.10
Cowboys 5.79 6.90 -1.10
Sharks 4.27 5.84 -1.60
Broncos 3.76 4.36 -0.60
Raiders 2.92 9.94 -7.00
Panthers 2.58 6.08 -3.50
Roosters 2.27 -1.17 3.40
Eels 0.68 -0.81 1.50
Sea Eagles -1.33 -2.98 1.60
Dragons -1.45 -7.74 6.30
Rabbitohs -2.85 -1.82 -1.00
Warriors -3.32 -6.02 2.70
Titans -3.91 -0.98 -2.90
Wests Tigers -4.30 -3.89 -0.40
Bulldogs -5.42 -1.34 -4.10
Knights -11.30 -16.94 5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jul 27 16 – 8 12.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Sharks Jul 28 12 – 26 -1.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos Jul 28 28 – 14 -2.10 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Dragons Jul 29 21 – 14 -8.80 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jul 29 18 – 32 -0.10 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 29 22 – 16 -1.20 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Jul 30 40 – 6 10.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 4 – 26 8.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 03 Eels -2.60
2 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Aug 04 Dragons 4.90
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 04 Storm -0.30
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 05 Warriors -4.00
5 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 05 Broncos -4.20
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 05 Sharks 4.90
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 06 Roosters -0.10
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 Panthers 10.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 6.15 7.41 -1.30
Cheetahs 5.69 4.33 1.40
Western Province 2.77 3.30 -0.50
Blue Bulls 2.05 2.32 -0.30
Sharks 1.80 2.15 -0.30
Pumas -10.45 -10.63 0.20
Griquas -10.75 -11.62 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 28 48 – 43 22.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Jul 29 29 – 0 15.80 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jul 30 30 – 17 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 04 Sharks 17.10
2 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Aug 05 Blue Bulls 0.40
3 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 05 Western Province 17.70

 

July 25, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.61 13.22 4.40
Crusaders 14.49 8.75 5.70
Lions 13.59 7.64 6.00
Highlanders 10.62 9.17 1.50
Chiefs 9.98 9.75 0.20
Brumbies 1.81 3.83 -2.00
Stormers 1.38 1.51 -0.10
Sharks 0.72 0.42 0.30
Blues -0.22 -1.07 0.90
Waratahs -3.81 5.81 -9.60
Bulls -4.96 0.29 -5.20
Jaguares -5.03 -4.36 -0.70
Force -6.97 -9.45 2.50
Cheetahs -9.63 -7.36 -2.30
Reds -9.92 -10.28 0.40
Kings -12.08 -19.02 6.90
Rebels -15.29 -8.17 -7.10
Sunwolves -19.38 -17.76 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jul 21 16 – 35 -10.80 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 22 17 – 0 6.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 22 23 – 21 18.30 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 22 11 – 17 -4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 29 Crusaders 8.00
2 Lions vs. Hurricanes Jul 29 Hurricanes -0.00