Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
|Bay of Plenty||-4.43||-5.54||1.10|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||North Harbour vs. Tasman||Oct 12||27 – 27||-8.30||FALSE|
|2||Taranaki vs. Auckland||Oct 13||35 – 32||6.90||TRUE|
|3||Manawatu vs. Otago||Oct 14||14 – 21||0.80||FALSE|
|4||Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury||Oct 15||33 – 21||-7.70||FALSE|
|5||Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty||Oct 15||24 – 26||3.70||FALSE|
|6||Wellington vs. Waikato||Oct 15||24 – 28||5.20||FALSE|
|7||Tasman vs. Southland||Oct 16||56 – 0||25.20||TRUE|
|8||Northland vs. North Harbour||Oct 16||28 – 44||-3.00||TRUE|
Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals
Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Otago vs. Bay of Plenty||Oct 21||Otago||9.10|
|2||Wellington vs. North Harbour||Oct 22||Wellington||6.50|
|3||Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau||Oct 23||Canterbury||12.10|
|4||Taranaki vs. Tasman||Oct 23||Taranaki||3.60|