Posts written by David Scott (195)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 24, 2014

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.42 5.82 5.60
Roosters 9.66 12.35 -2.70
Cowboys 9.46 6.01 3.40
Storm 4.47 7.64 -3.20
Panthers 4.45 -2.48 6.90
Broncos 3.86 -4.69 8.50
Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50
Sea Eagles 2.78 9.10 -6.30
Bulldogs 0.42 2.46 -2.00
Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50
Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50
Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40
Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30
Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90
Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20
Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 19 31 – 30 5.70 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Sep 20 17 – 18 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 26 Rabbitohs 6.30
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 27 Panthers 4.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.47 3.43 3.00
Sharks 2.98 5.09 -2.10
Lions 2.44 0.07 2.40
Cheetahs -0.88 0.33 -1.20
Blue Bulls -2.90 -0.74 -2.20
Pumas -5.72 -10.00 4.30
Griquas -7.69 -7.49 -0.20
Kings -14.04 -10.00 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 19 29 – 15 13.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 36 – 12 18.40 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 20 15 – 26 0.60 FALSE
4 Kings vs. Cheetahs Sep 20 22 – 37 -7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Sep 26 Cheetahs 7.00
2 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 27 Lions -5.10
3 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 27 Western Province -7.20
4 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 27 Sharks 22.00

 

Revised ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7

Reviewing the ratings I noticed I have been giving Wellington a ridiculously high rating given their disastrous performance this year. I discovered a problem with my code which meant I have not been updating ratings properly. I have some different code for the ITM Cup because of the strange nature of the fixtures where teams can play more than one game a week.

Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 21.23 18.09 3.10
Tasman 10.08 5.78 4.30
Auckland 5.32 4.92 0.40
Hawke’s Bay 4.02 2.75 1.30
Taranaki 2.96 -3.89 6.90
Wellington 1.25 10.16 -8.90
Counties Manukau 0.04 2.40 -2.40
Otago -1.62 -1.45 -0.20
Waikato -3.89 -1.20 -2.70
Northland -5.24 -8.22 3.00
Manawatu -7.06 -10.32 3.30
Southland -9.05 -5.85 -3.20
Bay of Plenty -9.73 -5.47 -4.30
North Harbour -10.37 -9.77 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Tasman Sep 17 14 – 38 -13.30 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 18 20 – 31 -1.40 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 19 20 – 28 -13.50 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 20 36 – 17 10.20 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 20 32 – 7 18.50 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 20 41 – 20 -0.20 FALSE
7 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 21 38 – 7 1.60 TRUE
8 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 21 20 – 42 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 24 Canterbury -27.60
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 25 Northland -0.50
3 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 26 Taranaki 1.60
4 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Waikato 7.20
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 27 Counties Manukau 2.80
6 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 27 Hawke’s Bay -10.40
7 Tasman vs. Otago Sep 28 Tasman 15.70
8 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 28 Canterbury 34.30

 

September 16, 2014

Revised Revised NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Update

Updated now to give correct teams for the game on Saturday. Thanks to ian.tinkler@xtra.co.nz for pointing out my mistake.

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.42 5.82 5.60
Roosters 10.14 12.35 -2.20
Cowboys 8.98 6.01 3.00
Storm 4.47 7.64 -3.20
Panthers 4.45 -2.48 6.90
Broncos 3.86 -4.69 8.50
Sea Eagles 3.23 9.10 -5.90
Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50
Bulldogs -0.02 2.46 -2.50
Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50
Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50
Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40
Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30
Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90
Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20
Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Sep 12 24 – 40 -6.30 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Panthers Sep 13 18 – 19 12.70 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 13 32 – 20 9.00 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Bulldogs Sep 14 4 – 24 14.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 19 Roosters 5.70
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Sep 20 Sea Eagles 3.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.10 3.43 2.70
Lions 2.37 0.07 2.30
Sharks 2.26 5.09 -2.80
Cheetahs -1.39 0.33 -1.70
Blue Bulls -2.18 -0.74 -1.40
Pumas -5.64 -10.00 4.40
Griquas -7.31 -7.49 0.20
Kings -13.52 -10.00 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Blue Bulls Sep 12 13 – 28 -5.10 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Sep 13 31 – 27 3.20 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 13 30 – 30 1.60 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 13 35 – 33 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 19 Lions 13.00
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 Western Province 18.40
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 20 Blue Bulls 0.60
4 Kings vs. Cheetahs Sep 20 Cheetahs -7.10

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60
Tasman 12.10 5.78 6.30
Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00
Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 2.07 2.75 -0.70
Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00
Auckland 0.31 4.92 -4.60
Otago -1.62 -1.45 -0.20
Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20
Bay of Plenty -4.12 -5.47 1.30
Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60
Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90
Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90
North Harbour -14.19 -9.77 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 23 – 40 11.80 FALSE
2 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 11 39 – 31 19.80 TRUE
3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 12 24 – 13 -0.70 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 12 46 – 12 15.50 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 13 12 – 27 -0.40 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Northland Sep 13 36 – 34 7.80 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Sep 14 26 – 21 2.60 TRUE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 14 41 – 0 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Tasman Sep 17 Tasman -13.30
2 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 18 Taranaki -1.40
3 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 19 Canterbury -13.50
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 10.20
5 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 20 Auckland 18.50
6 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 20 Southland -0.20
7 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 21 Otago 1.60
8 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 21 Wellington 0.10

 

September 9, 2014

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.41 12.35 -0.90
Rabbitohs 10.49 5.82 4.70
Cowboys 8.66 6.01 2.60
Storm 7.40 7.64 -0.20
Broncos 4.18 -4.69 8.90
Sea Eagles 4.15 9.10 -4.90
Panthers 3.18 -2.48 5.70
Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50
Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50
Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50
Bulldogs -2.95 2.46 -5.40
Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40
Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30
Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90
Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20
Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 22 – 18 5.80 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 05 22 – 12 7.10 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 06 26 – 10 -1.40 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Eels Sep 06 33 – 20 3.10 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 30 – 16 7.80 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 07 40 – 10 1.40 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 07 19 – 18 -1.50 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 22 – 6 2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Sep 12 Rabbitohs -1.80
2 Roosters vs. Panthers Sep 13 Roosters 12.70
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 13 Cowboys 9.00
4 Storm vs. Bulldogs Sep 14 Storm 14.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.17 3.43 2.70
Lions 2.29 0.07 2.20
Sharks 2.14 5.09 -2.90
Cheetahs -1.27 0.33 -1.60
Blue Bulls -2.81 -0.74 -2.10
Pumas -5.58 -10.00 4.40
Griquas -7.37 -7.49 0.10
Kings -12.89 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Kings Sep 05 49 – 14 22.50 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 06 17 – 31 12.40 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Sep 06 18 – 21 16.90 FALSE
4 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 06 36 – 26 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Blue Bulls Sep 12 Blue Bulls -5.10
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Sep 13 Griquas 3.20
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Sep 13 Cheetahs 1.60
4 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 13 Lions 1.10

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60
Tasman 12.10 5.78 6.30
Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00
Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 1.75 2.75 -1.00
Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00
Auckland 0.31 4.92 -4.60
Otago -1.29 -1.45 0.20
Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20
Bay of Plenty -4.12 -5.47 1.30
Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60
Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90
Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90
North Harbour -14.19 -9.77 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 03 29 – 27 2.90 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 04 16 – 23 -17.00 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 05 23 – 16 15.30 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 05 23 – 21 -6.80 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 06 31 – 30 -3.90 FALSE
6 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 06 41 – 19 5.60 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Sep 07 26 – 10 -7.60 FALSE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Sep 07 21 – 14 5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 Otago 11.80
2 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 11 Tasman 19.80
3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 12 Manawatu -0.70
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 12 Canterbury 15.50
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 13 Auckland -0.40
6 Southland vs. Northland Sep 13 Southland 7.80
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Sep 14 Waikato 2.60
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 14 Hawke’s Bay 7.00

 

September 2, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.62 12.35 -0.70
Rabbitohs 10.28 5.82 4.50
Cowboys 8.03 6.01 2.00
Storm 7.09 7.64 -0.50
Sea Eagles 4.77 9.10 -4.30
Broncos 4.50 -4.69 9.20
Warriors 4.09 -0.72 4.80
Panthers 1.92 -2.48 4.40
Dragons 0.35 -7.57 7.90
Bulldogs -2.68 2.46 -5.10
Knights -2.73 5.23 -8.00
Eels -7.17 -18.45 11.30
Raiders -8.58 -8.99 0.40
Titans -8.67 1.45 -10.10
Sharks -9.35 2.32 -11.70
Wests Tigers -15.25 -11.26 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 14 – 21 -8.90 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 29 30 – 22 8.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Eels Aug 30 42 – 12 4.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 27 – 12 10.20 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 30 24 – 12 8.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Titans Aug 31 42 – 0 12.20 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 31 26 – 25 8.90 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Sharks Sep 01 20 – 19 26.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 Roosters 5.80
2 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 05 Storm 7.10
3 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 06 Sharks -1.40
4 Raiders vs. Eels Sep 06 Raiders 3.10
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Cowboys 7.80
6 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 07 Knights 1.40
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 07 Bulldogs -1.50
8 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 Panthers 2.30