Posts written by David Scott (351)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 20, 2016

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 10.02 -0.55 10.60
Storm 9.39 4.41 5.00
Cowboys 8.68 10.29 -1.60
Panthers 6.14 -3.06 9.20
Broncos 5.20 9.81 -4.60
Sharks 4.73 -1.06 5.80
Roosters -0.08 11.20 -11.30
Eels -0.82 -4.62 3.80
Bulldogs -1.03 1.50 -2.50
Titans -1.31 -8.39 7.10
Rabbitohs -1.55 -1.20 -0.30
Sea Eagles -2.83 0.36 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.05 -4.06 0.00
Warriors -6.26 -7.47 1.20
Dragons -7.44 -0.10 -7.30
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 16 26 – 20 6.60 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Sep 17 22 – 12 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 23 Cowboys -0.90
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 24 Storm 2.40

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.91 12.85 4.10
Taranaki 7.73 8.25 -0.50
Auckland 5.86 11.34 -5.50
Tasman 4.56 8.71 -4.10
Counties Manukau 4.26 2.45 1.80
Wellington 3.26 4.32 -1.10
Otago 2.08 0.54 1.50
Waikato -0.75 -4.31 3.60
Bay of Plenty -3.87 -5.54 1.70
Hawke’s Bay -4.54 1.85 -6.40
Manawatu -4.73 -6.71 2.00
North Harbour -6.48 -8.15 1.70
Southland -12.81 -9.71 -3.10
Northland -14.98 -19.37 4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 14 29 – 30 -1.00 TRUE
2 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 15 29 – 43 -2.10 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 16 33 – 23 26.50 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 24 – 10 10.50 TRUE
5 Otago vs. North Harbour Sep 17 24 – 13 12.90 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 17 19 – 13 -22.80 FALSE
7 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 18 26 – 30 7.70 FALSE
8 Waikato vs. Taranaki Sep 18 20 – 20 -5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Bay of Plenty -4.90
2 Northland vs. Wellington Sep 22 Wellington -14.20
3 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Sep 23 Counties Manukau 9.00
4 Canterbury vs. Otago Sep 24 Canterbury 18.80
5 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 24 Taranaki 16.50
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 24 Tasman -5.10
7 North Harbour vs. Southland Sep 25 North Harbour 10.30
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Sep 25 Auckland -5.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.45 9.69 -0.20
Blue Bulls 3.91 1.80 2.10
Western Province 3.51 6.46 -2.90
Cheetahs 2.77 -3.42 6.20
Sharks 2.65 -0.60 3.30
Griquas -11.08 -12.45 1.40
Pumas -11.42 -8.62 -2.80
Cavaliers -13.34 -10.00 -3.30
Kings -17.90 -14.29 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 15 53 – 0 20.80 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 16 57 – 20 16.20 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs Sep 17 29 – 37 12.40 FALSE
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 17 31 – 23 19.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cavaliers vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 Blue Bulls -13.80
2 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 23 Western Province -11.10
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 23 Cheetahs -10.70
4 Kings vs. Lions Sep 24 Lions -23.90

 

September 14, 2016

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 9.72 -0.55 10.30
Storm 9.39 4.41 5.00
Cowboys 8.73 10.29 -1.60
Panthers 6.44 -3.06 9.50
Broncos 5.15 9.81 -4.70
Sharks 4.73 -1.06 5.80
Roosters -0.08 11.20 -11.30
Eels -0.82 -4.62 3.80
Bulldogs -1.03 1.50 -2.50
Titans -1.31 -8.39 7.10
Rabbitohs -1.55 -1.20 -0.30
Sea Eagles -2.83 0.36 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.05 -4.06 0.00
Warriors -6.26 -7.47 1.20
Dragons -7.44 -0.10 -7.30
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 126 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Titans Sep 09 44 – 28 8.40 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 10 14 – 16 9.60 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 10 16 – 10 3.20 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 11 28 – 12 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Sep 16 Cowboys 6.60
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Sep 17 Raiders 6.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.50 12.85 6.60
Taranaki 8.22 8.25 -0.00
Auckland 6.91 11.34 -4.40
Tasman 6.05 8.71 -2.70
Counties Manukau 3.20 2.45 0.80
Wellington 2.95 4.32 -1.40
Otago 2.25 0.54 1.70
Waikato -1.25 -4.31 3.10
Bay of Plenty -3.56 -5.54 2.00
Hawke’s Bay -5.61 1.85 -7.50
North Harbour -6.65 -8.15 1.50
Manawatu -7.33 -6.71 -0.60
Southland -11.74 -9.71 -2.00
Northland -16.46 -19.37 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 07 24 – 25 -8.60 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 08 30 – 14 25.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 09 52 – 25 14.70 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 09 27 – 28 5.40 FALSE
5 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 10 29 – 25 4.80 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 10 30 – 27 -0.40 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 63 – 7 23.90 TRUE
8 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 11 32 – 35 16.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Sep 14 Taranaki -1.00
2 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 15 Hawke’s Bay -2.10
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 16 Tasman 26.50
4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 16 Wellington 10.50
5 Otago vs. North Harbour Sep 17 Otago 12.90
6 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Sep 17 Canterbury -22.80
7 Auckland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 18 Auckland 7.70
8 Waikato vs. Taranaki Sep 18 Taranaki -5.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.57 9.69 0.90
Western Province 4.24 6.46 -2.20
Blue Bulls 2.78 1.80 1.00
Cheetahs 1.65 -3.42 5.10
Sharks 1.04 -0.60 1.60
Griquas -9.94 -12.45 2.50
Pumas -12.14 -8.62 -3.50
Cavaliers -13.34 -10.00 -3.30
Kings -16.30 -14.29 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 09 58 – 32 7.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cavaliers Sep 10 46 – 22 4.80 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 10 30 – 38 4.40 FALSE
4 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 10 14 – 41 -9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 15 Sharks 20.80
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 16 Blue Bulls 16.20
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs Sep 17 Lions 12.40
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 17 Western Province 19.90

 

September 7, 2016

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 10.54 -0.55 11.10
Storm 9.17 4.41 4.80
Cowboys 8.95 10.29 -1.30
Panthers 5.73 -3.06 8.80
Broncos 4.60 9.81 -5.20
Sharks 3.91 -1.06 5.00
Roosters -0.08 11.20 -11.30
Bulldogs -0.32 1.50 -1.80
Titans -0.75 -8.39 7.60
Eels -0.82 -4.62 3.80
Rabbitohs -1.55 -1.20 -0.30
Sea Eagles -2.83 0.36 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.05 -4.06 0.00
Warriors -6.26 -7.47 1.20
Dragons -7.44 -0.10 -7.30
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Sep 01 24 – 14 7.20 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 10 – 28 7.70 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 03 28 – 26 14.40 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 03 32 – 16 12.10 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 03 26 – 6 6.30 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Eels Sep 04 18 – 40 1.80 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 10 – 52 -6.90 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 36 – 6 8.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Titans Sep 09 Broncos 8.40
2 Raiders vs. Sharks Sep 10 Raiders 9.60
3 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Storm 3.20
4 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 11 Panthers 6.10

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.55 12.85 3.70
Auckland 9.26 11.34 -2.10
Taranaki 9.09 8.25 0.80
Tasman 6.35 8.71 -2.40
Counties Manukau 3.78 2.45 1.30
Wellington 2.37 4.32 -2.00
Otago 1.95 0.54 1.40
Waikato -2.91 -4.31 1.40
Hawke’s Bay -3.34 1.85 -5.20
Bay of Plenty -4.67 -5.54 0.90
North Harbour -6.57 -8.15 1.60
Manawatu -7.40 -6.71 -0.70
Southland -12.61 -9.71 -2.90
Northland -15.36 -19.37 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Aug 31 33 – 28 26.40 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Sep 01 20 – 48 2.30 FALSE
3 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 02 16 – 51 -14.10 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Taranaki Sep 03 25 – 20 0.40 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 03 21 – 17 14.90 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Canterbury Sep 03 34 – 52 -32.00 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Sep 04 32 – 33 -4.90 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 04 19 – 10 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 07 Auckland -8.60
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 08 Taranaki 25.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 09 Bay of Plenty 14.70
4 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 09 Counties Manukau 5.40
5 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 10 North Harbour 4.80
6 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 10 Tasman -0.40
7 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 11 Canterbury 23.90
8 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 11 Auckland 16.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.55 9.69 -0.10
Western Province 5.25 6.46 -1.20
Blue Bulls 1.79 1.80 -0.00
Sharks 1.79 -0.60 2.40
Cheetahs 0.90 -3.42 4.30
Griquas -11.01 -12.45 1.40
Pumas -11.15 -8.62 -2.50
Cavaliers -12.27 -10.00 -2.30
Kings -16.30 -14.29 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cavaliers vs. Pumas Sep 02 25 – 22 2.20 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Kings Sep 02 57 – 25 19.20 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 03 31 – 17 -6.50 FALSE
4 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 03 34 – 27 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Sep 09 Lions 7.80
2 Griquas vs. Cavaliers Sep 10 Griquas 4.80
3 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 10 Sharks 4.40
4 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 10 Blue Bulls -9.40

 

August 31, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 8.64 10.29 -1.70
Storm 8.21 4.41 3.80
Raiders 8.19 -0.55 8.70
Sharks 4.87 -1.06 5.90
Broncos 4.38 9.81 -5.40
Panthers 4.26 -3.06 7.30
Bulldogs 1.43 1.50 -0.10
Roosters 0.14 11.20 -11.10
Titans -0.44 -8.39 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.36 0.36 -1.70
Wests Tigers -1.70 -4.06 2.40
Eels -2.45 -4.62 2.20
Rabbitohs -3.29 -1.20 -2.10
Warriors -4.64 -7.47 2.80
Dragons -6.57 -0.10 -6.50
Knights -18.01 -5.41 -12.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 25 16 – 24 -3.50 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 26 16 – 26 9.50 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Aug 27 30 – 44 -5.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 27 14 – 15 -1.80 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 27 37 – 12 5.00 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Aug 28 24 – 36 3.20 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 12 – 34 -10.00 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 29 30 – 18 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Sep 01 Broncos 7.20
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 Bulldogs 7.70
3 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 03 Dragons 14.40
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 03 Cowboys 12.10
5 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 03 Storm 6.30
6 Warriors vs. Eels Sep 04 Warriors 1.80
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 Raiders -6.90
8 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 Panthers 8.60