Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
My predictions are early this week and may not appear next week unless I can get some internet access while travelling.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Blues vs. Crusaders||Feb 28||35 – 24||-7.80||FALSE|
|2||Rebels vs. Cheetahs||Feb 28||35 – 14||-2.30||FALSE|
|3||Stormers vs. Hurricanes||Feb 28||19 – 18||8.50||TRUE|
|4||Chiefs vs. Highlanders||Mar 01||21 – 19||11.70||TRUE|
|5||Waratahs vs. Reds||Mar 01||32 – 5||3.40||TRUE|
|6||Force vs. Brumbies||Mar 01||14 – 27||-6.80||TRUE|
|7||Bulls vs. Lions||Mar 01||25 – 17||10.60||TRUE|
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Hurricanes vs. Brumbies||Mar 07||Brumbies||-1.00|
|2||Reds vs. Cheetahs||Mar 07||Reds||5.60|
|3||Crusaders vs. Stormers||Mar 08||Crusaders||8.70|
|4||Force vs. Rebels||Mar 08||Force||0.90|
|5||Bulls vs. Blues||Mar 08||Bulls||8.80|
|6||Sharks vs. Lions||Mar 08||Sharks||14.00|