Posts written by David Scott (320)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 28, 2016

Updated Super Rugby Predictions

I posted predictions for Round 15 before the international games. I have just updated the predictions because I had not taken into account that the Chiefs versus Crusaders game is to be on a neutral ground.

See the updated post atSuper 18 Predictions for Round 15

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 9.60 10.29 -0.70
Storm 8.57 4.41 4.20
Broncos 6.39 9.81 -3.40
Sharks 5.71 -1.06 6.80
Bulldogs 4.96 1.50 3.50
Raiders 2.90 -0.55 3.50
Eels 1.23 -4.62 5.90
Panthers -0.59 -3.06 2.50
Roosters -1.35 11.20 -12.60
Dragons -2.11 -0.10 -2.00
Sea Eagles -2.14 0.36 -2.50
Warriors -2.56 -7.47 4.90
Rabbitohs -3.23 -1.20 -2.00
Titans -3.37 -8.39 5.00
Wests Tigers -5.23 -4.06 -1.20
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 24 28 – 26 6.30 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 25 18 – 30 -12.00 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 25 19 – 18 14.10 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jun 25 40 – 14 -2.30 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Raiders Jun 26 22 – 30 -2.40 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 26 29 – 20 18.10 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 27 30 – 26 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 Bulldogs -3.30
2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 01 Broncos 0.80
3 Warriors vs. Titans Jul 02 Warriors 4.80
4 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 02 Panthers -1.60
5 Sharks vs. Eels Jul 02 Sharks 7.50
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 03 Raiders 23.00
7 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Cowboys -9.80
8 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 04 Sea Eagles 3.00

 

June 22, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.48 10.29 0.20
Storm 9.22 4.41 4.80
Broncos 8.30 9.81 -1.50
Sharks 6.64 -1.06 7.70
Bulldogs 3.05 1.50 1.60
Raiders 2.45 -0.55 3.00
Eels 1.23 -4.62 5.90
Panthers -0.24 -3.06 2.80
Roosters -1.35 11.20 -12.60
Dragons -2.11 -0.10 -2.00
Titans -2.92 -8.39 5.50
Sea Eagles -3.03 0.36 -3.40
Warriors -3.48 -7.47 4.00
Rabbitohs -3.57 -1.20 -2.40
Wests Tigers -5.88 -4.06 -1.80
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jun 17 12 – 30 0.80 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Storm Jun 18 20 – 10 -11.20 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 19 12 – 10 1.80 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 30 – 10 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 24 Panthers 6.30
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 25 Dragons -12.00
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 25 Sharks 14.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jun 25 Broncos -2.30
5 Titans vs. Raiders Jun 26 Raiders -2.40
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 26 Storm 18.10
7 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 27 Cowboys 16.50

 

June 15, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.68 4.41 6.30
Cowboys 10.48 10.29 0.20
Broncos 8.30 9.81 -1.50
Sharks 6.64 -1.06 7.70
Bulldogs 3.05 1.50 1.60
Raiders 2.45 -0.55 3.00
Eels -0.07 -4.62 4.60
Panthers -0.24 -3.06 2.80
Roosters -1.34 11.20 -12.50
Sea Eagles -1.67 0.36 -2.00
Rabbitohs -2.28 -1.20 -1.10
Warriors -3.49 -7.47 4.00
Dragons -3.56 -0.10 -3.50
Titans -4.27 -8.39 4.10
Wests Tigers -5.88 -4.06 -1.80
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 09 26 – 18 9.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 30 – 14 -6.70 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 11 14 – 50 -5.50 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Titans Jun 11 22 – 12 3.20 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 11 0 – 46 -3.40 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jun 12 24 – 31 3.00 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jun 13 16 – 34 -4.80 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jun 13 13 – 10 -1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jun 17 Rabbitohs 0.80
2 Dragons vs. Storm Jun 18 Storm -11.20
3 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 19 Warriors 1.80
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 Titans 0.40

 

June 8, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.84 10.29 0.50
Broncos 8.38 9.81 -1.40
Storm 7.85 4.41 3.40
Sharks 6.27 -1.06 7.30
Raiders 2.37 -0.55 2.90
Bulldogs 2.12 1.50 0.60
Roosters 1.49 11.20 -9.70
Eels -0.56 -4.62 4.10
Rabbitohs -0.72 -1.20 0.50
Sea Eagles -0.96 0.36 -1.30
Panthers -0.96 -3.06 2.10
Dragons -2.63 -0.10 -2.50
Titans -3.78 -8.39 4.60
Warriors -5.55 -7.47 1.90
Wests Tigers -7.43 -4.06 -3.40
Knights -15.07 -5.41 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 03 30 – 18 5.40 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 04 36 – 18 -14.30 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 04 46 – 16 28.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 04 24 – 6 10.80 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 05 32 – 18 11.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 05 28 – 29 3.80 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 06 18 – 20 -1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 09 Broncos 9.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 Rabbitohs -6.70
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 11 Warriors -5.50
4 Eels vs. Titans Jun 11 Eels 3.20
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 11 Storm -3.40
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jun 12 Sea Eagles 3.00
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jun 13 Bulldogs -4.80
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jun 13 Cowboys -1.60

 

June 1, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 15

I have updated these predictions because I had not realised that the Chiefs Crusaders game was on a neutral ground.

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.81 9.84 -0.00
Highlanders 7.08 6.80 0.30
Hurricanes 6.99 7.26 -0.30
Brumbies 5.22 3.15 2.10
Waratahs 5.13 4.88 0.30
Lions 4.88 -1.80 6.70
Chiefs 4.55 2.68 1.90
Sharks 2.86 -1.64 4.50
Stormers 0.33 -0.62 1.00
Bulls -3.03 -0.74 -2.30
Blues -4.91 -5.51 0.60
Rebels -6.09 -6.33 0.20
Cheetahs -7.01 -9.27 2.30
Jaguares -9.08 -10.00 0.90
Reds -9.34 -9.81 0.50
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -18.62 -10.00 -8.60
Kings -21.19 -13.66 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 27 27 – 20 2.90 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs May 27 45 – 25 2.50 TRUE
3 Kings vs. Jaguares May 27 29 – 22 -10.20 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Crusaders May 28 21 – 26 -12.10 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 28 66 – 5 23.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 28 31 – 24 11.40 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 28 20 – 56 -0.10 TRUE
8 Rebels vs. Force May 29 27 – 22 8.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 01 Crusaders -5.30
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jul 01 Brumbies 18.10
3 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Jul 02 Waratahs -19.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 02 Hurricanes 15.40
5 Rebels vs. Stormers Jul 02 Stormers -2.40
6 Cheetahs vs. Force Jul 02 Cheetahs 7.80
7 Kings vs. Highlanders Jul 02 Highlanders -24.30
8 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 02 Lions 5.50
9 Jaguares vs. Bulls Jul 02 Bulls -2.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.74 10.29 0.40
Broncos 10.55 9.81 0.70
Storm 7.33 4.41 2.90
Sharks 6.19 -1.06 7.20
Bulldogs 2.20 1.50 0.70
Raiders 1.89 -0.55 2.40
Roosters 1.29 11.20 -9.90
Rabbitohs -0.34 -1.20 0.90
Panthers -0.43 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 0.36 -0.80
Eels -0.56 -4.62 4.10
Dragons -2.63 -0.10 -2.50
Titans -4.16 -8.39 4.20
Wests Tigers -7.23 -4.06 -3.20
Warriors -7.72 -7.47 -0.30
Knights -14.97 -5.41 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 27 18 – 19 24.20 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys May 28 14 – 10 -12.70 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 29 32 – 20 1.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Eels May 30 18 – 20 -13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 03 Raiders 5.40
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 04 Broncos -14.30
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 04 Cowboys 28.70
4 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 04 Storm 10.80
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 05 Roosters 11.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 05 Rabbitohs 3.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 06 Sharks -1.00

 

May 25, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.23 9.84 0.40
Highlanders 7.33 6.80 0.50
Hurricanes 6.75 7.26 -0.50
Chiefs 5.60 2.68 2.90
Waratahs 4.08 4.88 -0.80
Brumbies 2.95 3.15 -0.20
Sharks 2.86 -1.64 4.50
Lions 2.72 -1.80 4.50
Stormers 0.59 -0.62 1.20
Bulls -0.87 -0.74 -0.10
Blues -5.34 -5.51 0.20
Rebels -5.87 -6.33 0.50
Cheetahs -7.27 -9.27 2.00
Jaguares -8.05 -10.00 1.90
Reds -9.34 -9.81 0.50
Force -11.03 -8.43 -2.60
Sunwolves -16.35 -10.00 -6.40
Kings -22.22 -13.66 -8.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 20 29 – 10 8.90 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 21 35 – 25 11.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels May 21 36 – 15 14.70 TRUE
4 Force vs. Blues May 21 13 – 17 -1.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Jaguares May 21 52 – 24 13.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Kings May 21 53 – 0 25.30 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Stormers May 21 17 – 13 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 27 Hurricanes 2.90
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs May 27 Waratahs 2.50
3 Kings vs. Jaguares May 27 Jaguares -10.20
4 Blues vs. Crusaders May 28 Crusaders -12.10
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 28 Brumbies 23.30
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 28 Stormers 11.40
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 28 Lions -0.10
8 Rebels vs. Force May 29 Rebels 8.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 12.27 9.81 2.50
Cowboys 11.90 10.29 1.60
Storm 7.33 4.41 2.90
Sharks 6.19 -1.06 7.20
Bulldogs 2.97 1.50 1.50
Roosters 1.29 11.20 -9.90
Raiders 1.12 -0.55 1.70
Eels 0.22 -4.62 4.80
Rabbitohs -0.34 -1.20 0.90
Panthers -0.43 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 0.36 -0.80
Dragons -3.79 -0.10 -3.70
Titans -4.16 -8.39 4.20
Warriors -7.72 -7.47 -0.30
Wests Tigers -8.95 -4.06 -4.90
Knights -15.75 -5.41 -10.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 19 34 – 24 2.40 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 20 19 – 18 2.90 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 21 20 – 12 10.10 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Raiders May 21 12 – 38 -1.50 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 21 20 – 12 10.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Titans May 22 24 – 28 8.50 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 22 32 – 20 3.50 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Storm May 23 6 – 18 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 27 Broncos 24.20
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys May 28 Cowboys -12.70
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 29 Raiders 1.10
4 Knights vs. Eels May 30 Eels -13.00

 

May 18, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.63 9.84 -0.20
Highlanders 7.33 6.80 0.50
Hurricanes 6.75 7.26 -0.50
Chiefs 5.22 2.68 2.50
Waratahs 4.69 4.88 -0.20
Brumbies 2.95 3.15 -0.20
Lions 1.82 -1.80 3.60
Sharks 1.19 -1.64 2.80
Stormers 0.72 -0.62 1.30
Bulls -1.01 -0.74 -0.30
Rebels -5.49 -6.33 0.80
Blues -5.50 -5.51 0.00
Jaguares -7.15 -10.00 2.80
Cheetahs -7.27 -9.27 2.00
Reds -9.27 -9.81 0.50
Force -10.87 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -16.42 -10.00 -6.40
Kings -20.56 -13.66 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 13 34 – 26 0.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 13 22 – 30 -4.50 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 14 29 – 14 20.70 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Bulls May 14 31 – 8 7.90 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 14 17 – 17 -14.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings May 14 34 – 20 17.20 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Blues May 14 43 – 5 7.70 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 14 22 – 25 -4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 20 Crusaders 8.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 21 Reds 11.20
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels May 21 Chiefs 14.70
4 Force vs. Blues May 21 Blues -1.40
5 Lions vs. Jaguares May 21 Lions 13.00
6 Sharks vs. Kings May 21 Sharks 25.30
7 Bulls vs. Stormers May 21 Bulls 1.80