Posts written by David Scott (339)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 24, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.56 4.41 5.10
Cowboys 8.27 10.29 -2.00
Raiders 7.56 -0.55 8.10
Panthers 4.33 -3.06 7.40
Sharks 3.49 -1.06 4.50
Broncos 3.04 9.81 -6.80
Bulldogs 1.79 1.50 0.30
Roosters 1.52 11.20 -9.70
Titans -0.51 -8.39 7.90
Sea Eagles -0.74 0.36 -1.10
Wests Tigers -2.76 -4.06 1.30
Eels -2.91 -4.62 1.70
Warriors -3.58 -7.47 3.90
Rabbitohs -4.14 -1.20 -2.90
Dragons -6.10 -0.10 -6.00
Knights -17.16 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 18 20 – 10 3.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 40 – 10 6.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Titans Aug 20 6 – 26 -12.60 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 20 18 – 38 -5.20 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 20 34 – 6 13.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Aug 21 28 – 18 14.10 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 21 42 – 6 6.70 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 22 12 – 6 -6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -3.50
2 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 26 Storm 9.50
3 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Aug 27 Raiders -5.30
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 27 Panthers -1.80
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 27 Sharks 5.00
6 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Aug 28 Warriors 3.20
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 Rabbitohs -10.00
8 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 29 Eels 6.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.96 12.85 3.10
Auckland 8.23 11.34 -3.10
Taranaki 8.09 8.25 -0.20
Tasman 7.62 8.71 -1.10
Wellington 5.36 4.32 1.00
Otago 2.04 0.54 1.50
Counties Manukau 1.59 2.45 -0.90
Hawke’s Bay 0.81 1.85 -1.00
Waikato -3.23 -4.31 1.10
Bay of Plenty -5.38 -5.54 0.20
Manawatu -6.86 -6.71 -0.10
North Harbour -7.29 -8.15 0.90
Southland -11.22 -9.71 -1.50
Northland -19.22 -19.37 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 20 – 17 -6.60 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 19 27 – 34 -8.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 20 22 – 30 -9.80 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 20 26 – 36 1.50 FALSE
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 20 43 – 3 5.50 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 17 – 40 -6.20 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Waikato Aug 21 24 – 19 17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 25 Otago 0.70
2 Manawatu vs. Southland Aug 26 Manawatu 8.40
3 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 Auckland 31.50
4 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Waikato 8.10
5 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 Taranaki 11.30
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 28 Canterbury 12.30
7 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 Counties Manukau 11.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

PredictGames4.html

 

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.40 9.69 -0.30
Western Province 4.40 6.46 -2.10
Sharks 1.50 -0.60 2.10
Blue Bulls 0.97 1.80 -0.80
Cheetahs 0.13 -3.42 3.50
Pumas -10.40 -8.62 -1.80
Cavaliers -11.08 -10.00 -1.10
Griquas -11.68 -12.45 0.80
Kings -14.68 -14.29 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 25 – 32 9.70 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 19 30 – 24 -20.30 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 20 49 – 35 20.40 TRUE
4 Cavaliers vs. Sharks Aug 20 20 – 41 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Western Province Aug 26 Western Province -15.60
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 26 Pumas 4.80
3 Lions vs. Cavaliers Aug 27 Lions 24.00
4 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 27 Sharks 4.00

 

August 17, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.53 4.41 4.10
Raiders 7.90 -0.55 8.50
Cowboys 7.28 10.29 -3.00
Sharks 4.36 -1.06 5.40
Panthers 2.75 -3.06 5.80
Broncos 2.55 9.81 -7.30
Bulldogs 2.28 1.50 0.80
Sea Eagles 0.30 0.36 -0.10
Roosters -0.46 11.20 -11.70
Titans -1.04 -8.39 7.30
Wests Tigers -1.18 -4.06 2.90
Warriors -2.59 -7.47 4.90
Eels -3.24 -4.62 1.40
Dragons -4.12 -0.10 -4.00
Rabbitohs -5.01 -1.20 -3.80
Knights -16.62 -5.41 -11.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 11 20 – 16 5.20 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 12 38 – 16 6.60 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Aug 13 18 – 19 3.60 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 22 – 41 10.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 13 32 – 18 -8.60 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 14 6 – 42 -13.30 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 14 22 – 10 -7.40 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 15 22 – 8 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 18 Broncos 3.30
2 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 Panthers 6.90
3 Knights vs. Titans Aug 20 Titans -12.60
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 20 Storm -5.20
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 20 Cowboys 13.90
6 Raiders vs. Eels Aug 21 Raiders 14.10
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 21 Roosters 6.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 22 Sharks -6.40

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.85 12.85 0.00
Auckland 11.34 11.34 0.00
Tasman 8.71 8.71 0.00
Taranaki 8.25 8.25 0.00
Wellington 4.32 4.32 0.00
Counties Manukau 2.45 2.45 0.00
Hawke’s Bay 1.85 1.85 0.00
Otago 0.54 0.54 0.00
Waikato -4.31 -4.31 0.00
Bay of Plenty -5.54 -5.54 0.00
Manawatu -6.71 -6.71 0.00
North Harbour -8.15 -8.15 0.00
Southland -9.71 -9.71 0.00
Northland -19.37 -19.37 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 Counties Manukau -6.60
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 19 Manawatu -8.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 20 Taranaki -9.80
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 20 Hawke’s Bay 1.50
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 20 Canterbury 5.50
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 Otago -6.20
7 Tasman vs. Waikato Aug 21 Tasman 17.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.77 9.69 1.10
Western Province 5.35 6.46 -1.10
Blue Bulls 1.61 1.80 -0.20
Sharks 0.70 -0.60 1.30
Cheetahs -0.82 -3.42 2.60
Cavaliers -10.28 -10.00 -0.30
Pumas -10.40 -8.62 -1.80
Griquas -13.05 -12.45 -0.60
Kings -15.32 -14.29 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 12 68 – 26 22.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 12 46 – 24 16.10 TRUE
3 Kings vs. Cavaliers Aug 13 10 – 28 0.50 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 13 43 – 20 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 Western Province 9.70
2 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 19 Lions -20.30
3 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 20 Blue Bulls 20.40
4 Cavaliers vs. Sharks Aug 20 Sharks -7.50

 

August 10, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.48 4.41 5.10
Cowboys 8.62 10.29 -1.70
Raiders 6.95 -0.55 7.50
Sharks 5.91 -1.06 7.00
Bulldogs 2.37 1.50 0.90
Broncos 1.47 9.81 -8.30
Panthers 1.19 -3.06 4.20
Sea Eagles 0.20 0.36 -0.20
Warriors -0.60 -7.47 6.90
Wests Tigers -0.81 -4.06 3.20
Titans -1.41 -8.39 7.00
Roosters -1.80 11.20 -13.00
Eels -2.17 -4.62 2.50
Dragons -5.66 -0.10 -5.60
Rabbitohs -7.00 -1.20 -5.80
Knights -15.07 -5.41 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Broncos Aug 04 8 – 12 -4.20 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 05 10 – 9 0.60 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 06 14 – 28 -14.50 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 06 14 – 30 4.80 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 15 – 14 22.40 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 07 14 – 24 5.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 07 26 – 14 -9.40 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 08 38 – 18 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 11 Bulldogs 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 12 Broncos 6.60
3 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Aug 13 Wests Tigers 3.60
4 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 Warriors 10.40
5 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 13 Sharks -8.60
6 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 14 Panthers -13.30
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 14 Cowboys -7.40
8 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 15 Raiders 0.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.69 9.69 -0.00
Western Province 5.35 6.46 -1.10
Blue Bulls 2.90 1.80 1.10
Sharks 0.10 -0.60 0.70
Cheetahs -2.11 -3.42 1.30
Pumas -9.33 -8.62 -0.70
Cavaliers -11.31 -10.00 -1.30
Griquas -12.45 -12.45 0.00
Kings -14.29 -14.29 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 05 45 – 26 -1.20 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 05 10 – 26 -4.50 TRUE
3 Cavaliers vs. Cheetahs Aug 06 16 – 44 -3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 12 Lions 22.50
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 12 Sharks 16.10
3 Kings vs. Cavaliers Aug 13 Kings 0.50
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 13 Blue Bulls -1.50

 

August 5, 2016

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.69 9.69 -0.00
Western Province 6.46 6.46 0.00
Blue Bulls 1.80 1.80 0.00
Sharks -0.60 -0.60 0.00
Cheetahs -3.42 -3.42 -0.00
Pumas -8.62 -8.62 0.00
Cavaliers -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Griquas -12.45 -12.45 0.00
Kings -14.29 -14.29 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Kings Aug 05 Griquas 5.30
2 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 05 Western Province -1.20
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 05 Sharks -4.50
4 Cavaliers vs. Cheetahs Aug 06 Cheetahs -3.10

 

August 3, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 11.84 7.26 4.60
Chiefs 8.82 2.68 6.10
Highlanders 8.27 6.80 1.50
Crusaders 8.25 9.84 -1.60
Lions 6.74 -1.80 8.50
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Brumbies 2.91 3.15 -0.20
Stormers 0.12 -0.62 0.70
Sharks -0.91 -1.64 0.70
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 30 25 – 9 5.20 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Highlanders Jul 30 42 – 30 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Lions Aug 06 Hurricanes 9.10