Posts written by David Scott (287)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 28, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Team Ratings for the Rugby World Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 28.10 29.01 -0.90
South Africa 23.16 22.73 0.40
Australia 21.25 20.36 0.90
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Ireland 15.97 17.48 -1.50
Wales 13.85 13.93 -0.10
Argentina 10.87 7.38 3.50
France 8.96 11.70 -2.70
Scotland 5.94 4.84 1.10
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 South Africa vs. New Zealand Oct 24 18 – 20 -5.60 TRUE
2 Argentina vs. Australia Oct 25 15 – 29 -9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Rugby World Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Argentina Oct 30 South Africa 12.30
2 New Zealand vs. Australia Oct 31 New Zealand 6.80

 

October 21, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 28.42 29.01 -0.60
South Africa 22.84 22.73 0.10
Australia 20.85 20.36 0.50
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Ireland 15.97 17.48 -1.50
Wales 13.85 13.93 -0.10
Argentina 11.27 7.38 3.90
France 8.96 11.70 -2.70
Scotland 5.94 4.84 1.10
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 84.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 South Africa vs. Wales Oct 17 23 – 19 10.10 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. France Oct 17 62 – 13 16.60 TRUE
3 Ireland vs. Argentina Oct 18 20 – 43 7.50 FALSE
4 Australia vs. Scotland Oct 18 35 – 34 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. New Zealand Oct 24 New Zealand -5.60
2 Argentina vs. Australia Oct 25 Australia -9.60

 

ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.66 10.90 2.80
Auckland 11.17 5.14 6.00
Tasman 9.23 12.86 -3.60
Taranaki 8.54 7.70 0.80
Wellington 4.00 -4.62 8.60
Counties Manukau 2.72 7.86 -5.10
Hawke’s Bay 1.77 -0.57 2.30
Otago 0.38 -4.84 5.20
Waikato -4.56 -6.96 2.40
Bay of Plenty -6.01 -9.77 3.80
Manawatu -6.69 -1.52 -5.20
North Harbour -8.60 -10.54 1.90
Southland -10.02 -6.01 -4.00
Northland -19.56 -3.64 -15.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 16 44 – 24 2.90 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 33 – 26 12.80 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 17 46 – 20 5.40 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 17 34 – 14 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Oct 23 Hawke’s Bay 1.80
2 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 24 Canterbury 6.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 5.99 3.04 2.90
Western Province 5.35 4.93 0.40
Blue Bulls 1.71 0.17 1.50
Sharks 1.51 3.43 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.30 -1.75 -0.60
Pumas -6.66 -6.47 -0.20
Griquas -9.36 -7.81 -1.60
Kings -10.14 -9.44 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 16 18 – 23 0.40 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 17 43 – 33 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 24 Lions 4.10

 

October 13, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Current Rating Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 26.96 29.01 -2.00
South Africa 23.39 22.73 0.70
Australia 21.66 20.36 1.30
Ireland 17.35 17.48 -0.10
England 16.43 18.51 -2.10
Wales 13.30 13.93 -0.60
France 10.41 11.70 -1.30
Argentina 9.89 7.38 2.50
Scotland 5.13 4.84 0.30
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.15 -2.28 -1.90
Italy -6.37 -5.86 -0.50
Tonga -8.84 -6.31 -2.50
Japan -9.10 -11.18 2.10
USA -17.13 -15.97 -1.20
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.44 -21.20 1.80
Uruguay -31.67 -31.04 -0.60
Namibia -33.29 -35.62 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 New Zealand vs. Tonga Oct 09 47 – 9 35.30 TRUE
2 Samoa vs. Scotland Oct 10 33 – 36 -10.70 TRUE
3 Australia vs. Wales Oct 10 15 – 6 8.20 TRUE
4 England vs. Uruguay Oct 10 60 – 3 54.10 TRUE
5 Argentina vs. Namibia Oct 11 64 – 19 42.80 TRUE
6 Italy vs. Romania Oct 11 32 – 22 13.70 TRUE
7 France vs. Ireland Oct 11 9 – 24 -5.90 TRUE
8 USA vs. Japan Oct 11 18 – 28 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Wales Oct 17 South Africa 10.10
2 New Zealand vs. France Oct 17 New Zealand 16.60
3 Ireland vs. Argentina Oct 18 Ireland 7.50
4 Australia vs. Scotland Oct 18 Australia 16.50

 

ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 11.81 10.90 0.90
Tasman 10.77 12.86 -2.10
Taranaki 10.39 7.70 2.70
Auckland 9.63 5.14 4.50
Counties Manukau 2.72 7.86 -5.10
Wellington 2.64 -4.62 7.30
Hawke’s Bay 2.29 -0.57 2.90
Otago 1.73 -4.84 6.60
Waikato -4.56 -6.96 2.40
Bay of Plenty -6.54 -9.77 3.20
Manawatu -6.69 -1.52 -5.20
North Harbour -8.60 -10.54 1.90
Southland -10.02 -6.01 -4.00
Northland -19.56 -3.64 -15.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 07 36 – 54 -15.80 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 08 17 – 35 8.40 FALSE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 09 30 – 36 14.60 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Southland Oct 10 39 – 20 27.30 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Manawatu Oct 10 33 – 39 17.60 FALSE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 10 16 – 31 -0.30 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Oct 11 36 – 12 12.80 TRUE
8 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 43 – 30 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Tasman Oct 16 Auckland 2.90
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 Hawke’s Bay 12.80
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 17 Canterbury 5.40
4 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 17 Wellington 4.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 6.09 3.04 3.00
Western Province 5.08 4.93 0.10
Blue Bulls 1.98 0.17 1.80
Sharks 1.51 3.43 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.40 -1.75 -0.70
Pumas -6.66 -6.47 -0.20
Griquas -9.36 -7.81 -1.60
Kings -10.14 -9.44 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 09 24 – 25 -5.60 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Kings Oct 09 45 – 14 18.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 10 29 – 19 19.50 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Oct 10 34 – 34 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 16 Blue Bulls 0.40
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 17 Lions 12.00

 

October 8, 2015

Rugby World Cup Predictions, 09 October 2015 to 11 October 2015

Team Ratings at 09 October

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to 09 October along with the ratings at the start of the Rugby World Cup.

Rating at 09 October Rating at RWC Start Difference
New Zealand 26.72 29.01 -2.30
South Africa 23.39 22.73 0.70
Australia 21.59 20.36 1.20
Ireland 16.82 17.48 -0.70
England 16.17 18.51 -2.30
Wales 13.37 13.93 -0.60
France 10.94 11.70 -0.80
Argentina 9.69 7.38 2.30
Scotland 5.82 4.84 1.00
Fiji -2.19 -4.23 2.00
Samoa -4.83 -2.28 -2.50
Italy -6.04 -5.86 -0.20
Tonga -8.60 -6.31 -2.30
Japan -9.31 -11.18 1.90
USA -16.91 -15.97 -0.90
Georgia -17.74 -17.48 -0.30
Canada -17.89 -18.06 0.20
Romania -19.77 -21.20 1.40
Uruguay -31.41 -31.04 -0.40
Namibia -33.09 -35.62 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for previous games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Fiji Sep 18 35 – 11 29.20 TRUE
2 Tonga vs. Georgia Sep 19 10 – 17 11.20 FALSE
3 Ireland vs. Canada Sep 19 50 – 7 35.50 TRUE
4 South Africa vs. Japan Sep 19 32 – 34 33.90 FALSE
5 France vs. Italy Sep 19 32 – 10 17.60 TRUE
6 Samoa vs. USA Sep 20 25 – 16 13.70 TRUE
7 Wales vs. Uruguay Sep 20 54 – 9 51.50 TRUE
8 New Zealand vs. Argentina Sep 20 26 – 16 21.60 TRUE
9 Scotland vs. Japan Sep 23 45 – 10 14.40 TRUE
10 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 23 28 – 13 24.10 TRUE
11 France vs. Romania Sep 23 38 – 11 33.30 TRUE
12 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 24 58 – 14 64.00 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Georgia Sep 25 54 – 9 24.60 TRUE
14 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 23 – 18 12.50 TRUE
15 South Africa vs. Samoa Sep 26 46 – 6 23.90 TRUE
16 England vs. Wales Sep 26 25 – 28 11.20 FALSE
17 Australia vs. Uruguay Sep 27 65 – 3 50.30 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. USA Sep 27 39 – 16 21.40 TRUE
19 Ireland vs. Romania Sep 27 44 – 10 38.80 TRUE
20 Tonga vs. Namibia Sep 29 35 – 21 27.40 TRUE
21 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 01 23 – 13 23.80 TRUE
22 France vs. Canada Oct 01 41 – 18 29.60 TRUE
23 New Zealand vs. Georgia Oct 02 43 – 10 44.90 TRUE
24 Samoa vs. Japan Oct 03 5 – 26 7.10 FALSE
25 South Africa vs. Scotland Oct 03 34 – 16 16.00 TRUE
26 England vs. Australia Oct 03 13 – 33 3.30 FALSE
27 Argentina vs. Tonga Oct 04 45 – 16 17.00 TRUE
28 Ireland vs. Italy Oct 04 16 – 9 24.70 TRUE
29 Canada vs. Romania Oct 06 15 – 17 2.70 FALSE
30 Fiji vs. Uruguay Oct 06 47 – 15 28.60 TRUE
31 South Africa vs. USA Oct 07 64 – 0 37.90 TRUE
32 Namibia vs. Georgia Oct 07 16 – 17 -17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for 09 October to 11 October

The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the first-named team, and a negative margin a win to the second-named team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 New Zealand vs. Tonga Oct 09 New Zealand 35.30
2 Samoa vs. Scotland Oct 10 Scotland -10.70
3 Australia vs. Wales Oct 10 Australia 8.20
4 England vs. Uruguay Oct 10 England 54.10
5 Argentina vs. Namibia Oct 11 Argentina 42.80
6 Italy vs. Romania Oct 11 Italy 13.70
7 France vs. Ireland Oct 11 Ireland -5.90
8 USA vs. Japan Oct 11 Japan -7.60

 

October 7, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 12.77 7.70 5.10
Canterbury 12.56 10.90 1.70
Tasman 8.40 12.86 -4.50
Auckland 8.30 5.14 3.20
Wellington 4.76 -4.62 9.40
Hawke’s Bay 4.14 -0.57 4.70
Counties Manukau 4.05 7.86 -3.80
Otago 1.46 -4.84 6.30
Waikato -6.41 -6.96 0.50
Bay of Plenty -6.46 -9.77 3.30
Manawatu -8.81 -1.52 -7.30
North Harbour -9.59 -10.54 0.90
Southland -10.77 -6.01 -4.80
Northland -18.37 -3.64 -14.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 30 22 – 22 3.70 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Otago Oct 01 32 – 39 -7.10 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Oct 02 9 – 30 -3.30 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 03 25 – 41 3.30 FALSE
5 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Oct 03 10 – 44 -14.00 TRUE
6 Auckland vs. Northland Oct 03 64 – 21 28.00 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 28 – 35 -11.40 TRUE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Oct 04 13 – 31 -5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 07 Otago -15.80
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 08 Taranaki 8.40
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 09 Hawke’s Bay 14.60
4 Canterbury vs. Southland Oct 10 Canterbury 27.30
5 Wellington vs. Manawatu Oct 10 Wellington 17.60
6 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 10 Auckland -0.30
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Oct 11 North Harbour 12.80
8 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 11 Otago 11.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 6.36 3.04 3.30
Western Province 4.74 4.93 -0.20
Blue Bulls 2.21 0.17 2.00
Sharks 1.53 3.43 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.42 -1.75 -0.70
Pumas -6.89 -6.47 -0.40
Griquas -9.63 -7.81 -1.80
Kings -9.80 -9.44 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 02 62 – 32 4.00 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Oct 02 48 – 27 14.90 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Oct 03 37 – 37 -1.10 FALSE
4 Griquas vs. Sharks Oct 03 20 – 45 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 09 Blue Bulls -5.60
2 Western Province vs. Kings Oct 09 Western Province 18.00
3 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 10 Lions 19.50
4 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Oct 10 Sharks -0.50