Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs||Apr 18||14 – 15||4.70||FALSE|
|2||Knights vs. Broncos||Apr 18||6 – 32||9.20||FALSE|
|3||Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys||Apr 18||26 – 21||7.60||TRUE|
|4||Dragons vs. Warriors||Apr 19||20 – 10||3.40||TRUE|
|5||Sharks vs. Roosters||Apr 19||18 – 24||-5.80||TRUE|
|6||Raiders vs. Storm||Apr 20||24 – 22||-3.20||FALSE|
|7||Eels vs. Wests Tigers||Apr 21||18 – 21||-0.60||TRUE|
|8||Panthers vs. Titans||Apr 21||14 – 12||1.30||TRUE|
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Dragons vs. Roosters||Apr 25||Roosters||-7.90|
|2||Storm vs. Warriors||Apr 25||Storm||11.30|
|3||Broncos vs. Rabbitohs||Apr 25||Rabbitohs||-0.20|
|4||Sharks vs. Panthers||Apr 26||Sharks||4.60|
|5||Cowboys vs. Eels||Apr 26||Cowboys||17.10|
|6||Bulldogs vs. Knights||Apr 26||Bulldogs||11.40|
|7||Sea Eagles vs. Raiders||Apr 27||Sea Eagles||15.10|
|8||Wests Tigers vs. Titans||Apr 27||Wests Tigers||0.50|