Posts written by David Scott (369)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 21, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.79 13.22 4.60
Chiefs 10.88 9.75 1.10
Crusaders 7.98 8.75 -0.80
Lions 7.32 7.64 -0.30
Highlanders 7.27 9.17 -1.90
Brumbies 4.06 3.83 0.20
Stormers 2.68 1.51 1.20
Waratahs 1.75 5.81 -4.10
Blues 0.98 -1.07 2.10
Sharks 0.70 0.42 0.30
Bulls -1.40 0.29 -1.70
Jaguares -1.70 -4.36 2.70
Force -8.10 -9.45 1.40
Cheetahs -8.14 -7.36 -0.80
Reds -9.75 -10.28 0.50
Rebels -11.97 -8.17 -3.80
Kings -17.66 -19.02 1.40
Sunwolves -19.78 -17.76 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 17 33 – 24 10.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs Mar 17 14 – 27 -19.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 34 – 21 23.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 18 41 – 15 12.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 18 12 – 28 3.50 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Reds Mar 18 44 – 14 19.80 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Kings Mar 18 19 – 17 24.60 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Cheetahs Mar 18 41 – 14 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Force Mar 24 Crusaders 20.10
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 24 Waratahs -10.20
3 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 25 Blues 6.40
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 25 Brumbies 0.80
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers Mar 25 Stormers -18.50
6 Kings vs. Lions Mar 25 Lions -21.50
7 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Mar 25 Sharks -5.30
8 Jaguares vs. Reds Mar 25 Jaguares 12.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 8.94 9.94 -1.00
Storm 8.44 8.49 -0.00
Sharks 5.65 5.84 -0.20
Broncos 5.58 4.36 1.20
Cowboys 4.58 6.90 -2.30
Panthers 4.51 6.08 -1.60
Roosters 0.98 -1.17 2.10
Eels 0.20 -0.81 1.00
Bulldogs -1.04 -1.34 0.30
Rabbitohs -2.01 -1.82 -0.20
Sea Eagles -2.63 -2.98 0.30
Titans -2.70 -0.98 -1.70
Dragons -4.15 -7.74 3.60
Wests Tigers -6.57 -3.89 -2.70
Warriors -7.48 -6.02 -1.50
Knights -14.34 -16.94 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 16 14 – 12 7.20 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Mar 17 24 – 12 10.10 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Eels Mar 17 26 – 14 -1.50 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Mar 18 18 – 24 -9.50 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 18 12 – 14 8.80 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 8 – 30 16.50 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 46 – 6 15.20 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 19 10 – 16 16.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 23 Rabbitohs 0.50
2 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 24 Panthers 22.30
3 Broncos vs. Raiders Mar 24 Broncos 0.10
4 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 25 Sea Eagles 1.90
5 Eels vs. Sharks Mar 25 Sharks -2.00
6 Titans vs. Cowboys Mar 25 Cowboys -3.80
7 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Mar 26 Storm -11.50
8 Dragons vs. Warriors Mar 26 Dragons 7.30

 

March 14, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.98 13.22 3.80
Chiefs 11.28 9.75 1.50
Highlanders 8.08 9.17 -1.10
Crusaders 8.08 8.75 -0.70
Lions 6.71 7.64 -0.90
Waratahs 2.92 5.81 -2.90
Brumbies 2.89 3.83 -0.90
Stormers 2.68 1.51 1.20
Sharks 2.05 0.42 1.60
Blues 0.88 -1.07 2.00
Bulls -0.76 0.29 -1.00
Jaguares -2.83 -4.36 1.50
Cheetahs -7.01 -7.36 0.40
Force -8.10 -9.45 1.40
Reds -9.14 -10.28 1.10
Rebels -12.37 -8.17 -4.20
Kings -19.01 -19.02 0.00
Sunwolves -20.42 -17.76 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 10 26 – 18 -3.60 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Mar 10 25 – 17 15.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 10 37 – 14 0.40 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 11 12 – 16 -3.70 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 11 20 – 22 -14.70 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 11 38 – 31 18.80 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Stormers Mar 11 10 – 41 -16.50 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 11 36 – 24 -7.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Mar 17 Crusaders 10.70
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs Mar 17 Chiefs -19.70
3 Bulls vs. Sunwolves Mar 17 Bulls 23.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 18 Hurricanes 12.40
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 18 Waratahs 3.50
6 Lions vs. Reds Mar 18 Lions 19.80
7 Sharks vs. Kings Mar 18 Sharks 24.60
8 Jaguares vs. Cheetahs Mar 18 Jaguares 8.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.88 8.49 0.40
Cowboys 7.46 6.90 0.60
Sharks 7.40 5.84 1.60
Raiders 7.04 9.94 -2.90
Panthers 5.37 6.08 -0.70
Broncos 5.15 4.36 0.80
Eels 1.27 -0.81 2.10
Roosters 0.12 -1.17 1.30
Bulldogs -1.22 -1.34 0.10
Rabbitohs -1.70 -1.82 0.10
Titans -3.77 -0.98 -2.80
Wests Tigers -4.67 -3.89 -0.80
Sea Eagles -5.52 -2.98 -2.50
Dragons -5.91 -7.74 1.80
Warriors -7.31 -6.02 -1.30
Knights -14.65 -16.94 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 43.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 28 – 24 5.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Storm Mar 10 10 – 26 -11.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 10 20 – 21 1.70 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Titans Mar 11 34 – 26 -10.20 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 18 – 38 3.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 11 16 – 42 8.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Mar 12 2 – 36 -1.70 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Eels Mar 12 16 – 34 -1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 16 Storm 7.20
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Mar 17 Bulldogs 10.10
3 Titans vs. Eels Mar 17 Eels -1.50
4 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Mar 18 Rabbitohs -9.50
5 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 18 Panthers 8.80
6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 Cowboys 16.50
7 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 19 Raiders 15.20
8 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 19 Sharks 16.80

 

March 7, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.67 13.22 4.40
Chiefs 10.59 9.75 0.80
Crusaders 8.84 8.75 0.10
Highlanders 8.06 9.17 -1.10
Lions 7.90 7.64 0.30
Waratahs 4.27 5.81 -1.50
Brumbies 3.33 3.83 -0.50
Stormers 1.81 1.51 0.30
Blues 0.90 -1.07 2.00
Sharks 0.69 0.42 0.30
Bulls -0.76 0.29 -1.00
Jaguares -4.02 -4.36 0.30
Cheetahs -6.31 -7.36 1.10
Force -8.54 -9.45 0.90
Reds -9.91 -10.28 0.40
Rebels -12.37 -8.17 -4.20
Kings -18.14 -19.02 0.90
Sunwolves -21.13 -17.76 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Force vs. Reds Mar 02 26 – 19 4.60 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 03 41 – 26 12.90 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 04 71 – 6 29.80 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 04 27 – 30 3.50 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 04 22 – 27 8.20 FALSE
6 Sunwolves vs. Kings Mar 04 23 – 37 3.10 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Waratahs Mar 04 55 – 36 6.10 TRUE
8 Stormers vs. Jaguares Mar 04 32 – 25 10.20 TRUE
9 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 04 34 – 28 -3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 10 Hurricanes -3.60
2 Brumbies vs. Force Mar 10 Brumbies 15.40
3 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Sharks 0.40
4 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 11 Highlanders -3.70
5 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 11 Crusaders -14.70
6 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 11 Cheetahs 18.80
7 Kings vs. Stormers Mar 11 Stormers -16.50
8 Jaguares vs. Lions Mar 11 Lions -7.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 9.62 9.94 -0.30
Storm 8.46 8.49 -0.00
Cowboys 7.22 6.90 0.30
Broncos 5.39 4.36 1.00
Sharks 4.82 5.84 -1.00
Panthers 2.92 6.08 -3.20
Roosters 0.21 -1.17 1.40
Eels -0.06 -0.81 0.70
Bulldogs -1.31 -1.34 0.00
Wests Tigers -2.23 -3.89 1.70
Titans -2.36 -0.98 -1.40
Rabbitohs -3.48 -1.82 -1.70
Sea Eagles -3.73 -2.98 -0.80
Dragons -4.58 -7.74 3.20
Warriors -6.89 -6.02 -0.90
Knights -16.07 -16.94 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 37.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Broncos Mar 02 18 – 26 5.00 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 03 6 – 12 -6.30 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 03 18 – 34 5.60 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 04 42 – 10 -10.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 04 20 – 16 0.50 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Roosters Mar 04 18 – 32 3.70 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 05 26 – 22 14.90 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 05 12 – 20 1.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 Roosters 5.00
2 Warriors vs. Storm Mar 10 Storm -11.30
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 10 Broncos 1.70
4 Knights vs. Titans Mar 11 Titans -10.20
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 11 Sea Eagles 3.30
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Mar 11 Raiders 8.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Mar 12 Panthers -1.70
8 Dragons vs. Eels Mar 12 Eels -1.00

 

February 28, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.56 13.22 2.30
Chiefs 10.47 9.75 0.70
Highlanders 8.45 9.17 -0.70
Crusaders 8.45 8.75 -0.30
Lions 7.13 7.64 -0.50
Waratahs 5.05 5.81 -0.80
Brumbies 4.12 3.83 0.30
Stormers 2.00 1.51 0.50
Blues 1.02 -1.07 2.10
Sharks -0.10 0.42 -0.50
Bulls -0.21 0.29 -0.50
Jaguares -4.22 -4.36 0.10
Cheetahs -6.85 -7.36 0.50
Force -8.68 -9.45 0.80
Reds -9.76 -10.28 0.50
Rebels -10.26 -8.17 -2.10
Kings -19.16 -19.02 -0.10
Sunwolves -20.10 -17.76 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Blues Feb 23 18 – 56 -3.10 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 15 – 24 2.90 FALSE
3 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 24 28 – 26 -6.70 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 17 – 83 -27.00 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 25 17 – 13 8.90 TRUE
6 Waratahs vs. Force Feb 25 19 – 13 18.80 TRUE
7 Cheetahs vs. Lions Feb 25 25 – 28 -11.50 TRUE
8 Kings vs. Jaguares Feb 25 26 – 39 -10.70 TRUE
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 25 37 – 24 4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Force vs. Reds Mar 02 Force 4.60
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 03 Chiefs 12.90
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 04 Hurricanes 29.80
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 04 Highlanders 3.50
5 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 04 Brumbies 8.20
6 Sunwolves vs. Kings Mar 04 Sunwolves 3.10
7 Lions vs. Waratahs Mar 04 Lions 6.10
8 Stormers vs. Jaguares Mar 04 Stormers 10.20
9 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 04 Bulls -3.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 9.94 9.94 -0.00
Storm 8.49 8.49 0.00
Cowboys 6.90 6.90 -0.00
Panthers 6.08 6.08 -0.00
Sharks 5.84 5.84 -0.00
Broncos 4.36 4.36 -0.00
Eels -0.81 -0.81 -0.00
Titans -0.98 -0.98 -0.00
Roosters -1.17 -1.17 -0.00
Bulldogs -1.34 -1.34 -0.00
Rabbitohs -1.82 -1.82 -0.00
Sea Eagles -2.98 -2.98 -0.00
Wests Tigers -3.89 -3.89 0.00
Warriors -6.02 -6.02 -0.00
Dragons -7.74 -7.74 -0.00
Knights -16.94 -16.94 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Broncos Mar 02 Sharks 5.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Storm Mar 03 Storm -6.30
3 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 03 Rabbitohs 5.60
4 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 04 Panthers -10.30
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 04 Cowboys 0.50
6 Titans vs. Roosters Mar 04 Titans 3.70
7 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 05 Warriors 14.90
8 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 05 Sea Eagles 1.30

 

February 21, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.22 13.22 -0.00
Chiefs 9.75 9.75 -0.00
Highlanders 9.17 9.17 0.00
Crusaders 8.75 8.75 0.00
Lions 7.64 7.64 0.00
Waratahs 5.81 5.81 -0.00
Brumbies 3.83 3.83 0.00
Stormers 1.51 1.51 0.00
Sharks 0.42 0.42 -0.00
Bulls 0.29 0.29 0.00
Blues -1.07 -1.07 0.00
Jaguares -4.36 -4.36 -0.00
Cheetahs -7.36 -7.36 0.00
Rebels -8.17 -8.17 -0.00
Force -9.45 -9.45 0.00
Reds -10.28 -10.28 0.00
Sunwolves -17.76 -17.76 0.00
Kings -19.02 -19.02 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Blues Feb 23 Blues -3.10
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Highlanders 2.90
3 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 24 Sharks -6.70
4 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Hurricanes -27.00
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 25 Crusaders 8.90
6 Waratahs vs. Force Feb 25 Waratahs 18.80
7 Cheetahs vs. Lions Feb 25 Lions -11.50
8 Kings vs. Jaguares Feb 25 Jaguares -10.70
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 25 Stormers 4.70

 

October 25, 2016

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.53 12.85 1.70
Tasman 10.59 8.71 1.90
Taranaki 7.38 8.25 -0.90
Auckland 6.55 11.34 -4.80
Counties Manukau 5.89 2.45 3.40
Otago 0.44 0.54 -0.10
Waikato -0.37 -4.31 3.90
Wellington -1.72 4.32 -6.00
North Harbour -2.53 -8.15 5.60
Manawatu -3.94 -6.71 2.80
Bay of Plenty -4.25 -5.54 1.30
Hawke’s Bay -5.76 1.85 -7.60
Northland -13.35 -19.37 6.00
Southland -16.96 -9.71 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 21 27 – 20 9.10 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 22 37 – 40 6.50 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 23 22 – 7 12.10 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 23 29 – 41 3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. North Harbour Oct 28 Otago 7.00
2 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 29 Canterbury 7.90