Posts written by David Scott (1348)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 23, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.50 10.73 0.80
Munster 8.72 10.54 -1.80
Bulls 8.58 9.00 -0.40
Glasgow 8.13 4.19 3.90
Lions 5.41 -4.26 9.70
Stormers 4.97 8.93 -4.00
Ulster 2.97 7.80 -4.80
Connacht 2.31 3.17 -0.90
Sharks -0.09 0.85 -0.90
Ospreys -0.80 -7.79 7.00
Edinburgh -1.10 -2.26 1.20
Cardiff Rugby -1.84 -5.16 3.30
Benetton -3.52 -5.12 1.60
Scarlets -13.40 -2.23 -11.20
Dragons -14.77 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -17.06 -20.25 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Sharks Apr 20 21 – 10 12.50 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 19 – 17 10.10 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Dragons Apr 21 36 – 19 14.80 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 21 44 – 12 -7.60 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Munster Apr 21 22 – 27 5.50 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 21 21 – 27 12.50 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Zebre Apr 21 54 – 16 20.80 TRUE
8 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Apr 21 43 – 18 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Sharks Apr 27 Sharks -9.30
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Apr 27 Ulster 10.50
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 27 Glasgow -21.20
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Apr 28 Bulls 13.40
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Apr 28 Cardiff Rugby 3.30
6 Lions vs. Munster Apr 28 Lions 0.70
7 Stormers vs. Leinster Apr 28 Leinster -2.50
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Apr 28 Connacht -13.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.33 7.24 0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.93 6.40 -0.50
Toulon 5.26 3.11 2.10
Racing 92 4.21 3.42 0.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.03 4.07 -0.00
Stade Francais 3.16 2.62 0.50
Section Paloise 0.83 -0.44 1.30
Castres Olympique 0.05 -0.39 0.40
Montpellier -0.09 2.09 -2.20
Bayonne -0.62 -1.32 0.70
Lyon -1.10 2.97 -4.10
Clermont -1.11 1.47 -2.60
USA Perpignan -1.46 -3.64 2.20
US Oyonnax -8.81 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 21 25 – 24 0.60 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Apr 21 31 – 23 7.40 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Apr 21 28 – 24 11.00 TRUE
4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 21 20 – 19 4.80 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. Racing 92 Apr 21 13 – 43 -5.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Apr 21 51 – 20 4.50 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Apr 22 41 – 7 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 28 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Apr 28 Lyon 4.60
3 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 28 Montpellier 7.90
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Apr 28 Stade Rochelais 7.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Apr 28 Stade Toulousain 9.60
6 US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique Apr 28 Castres Olympique -2.40
7 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Apr 29 Clermont 2.20

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.35 12.20 2.20
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 13.30 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 13.24 18.86 -5.60
Brumbies 6.31 6.52 -0.20
Reds 2.26 0.07 2.20
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Western Force -6.91 -6.15 -0.80
Fijian Drua -7.73 -9.21 1.50
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 15 – 38 -15.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 31 – 0 6.50 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 46 – 7 11.00 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 37 – 15 -17.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 26 Crusaders 22.10
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 26 Chiefs -10.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 27 Fijian Drua 9.30
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 27 Hurricanes -2.00
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Apr 27 Highlanders 10.90
6 Reds vs. Blues Apr 27 Blues -7.10

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.94 1.00 8.90
Saracens 8.87 6.82 2.10
Northampton Saints 4.76 2.66 2.10
Bath 3.70 -1.26 5.00
Leicester Tigers 2.58 6.13 -3.50
Sale Sharks 1.58 6.46 -4.90
Harlequins 0.92 1.93 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -2.25 -0.89 -1.40
Gloucester -3.28 -1.45 -1.80
Newcastle Falcons -16.07 -10.63 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 21 85 – 14 24.30 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 21 14 – 26 2.60 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 40 – 17 5.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 21 46 – 24 17.30 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 22 37 – 31 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Saracens Apr 28 Bath 0.80
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 Gloucester 5.00
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 28 Harlequins 2.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 28 Bristol -1.40
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 Sale Sharks -11.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.04 14.73 -2.70
Broncos 8.82 9.07 -0.20
Storm 5.63 6.15 -0.50
Roosters 4.14 3.08 1.10
Sharks 4.04 2.94 1.10
Sea Eagles 1.50 -0.48 2.00
Warriors 0.44 -0.07 0.50
Cowboys 0.10 2.47 -2.40
Knights -0.58 1.84 -2.40
Raiders -2.35 -4.31 2.00
Dolphins -2.85 -7.09 4.20
Eels -3.52 0.14 -3.70
Rabbitohs -5.07 0.87 -5.90
Dragons -6.14 -6.93 0.80
Bulldogs -6.99 -13.35 6.40
Wests Tigers -10.51 -13.15 2.60
Titans -10.70 -7.89 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Apr 18 12 – 18 2.60 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 19 30 – 12 -2.00 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Dolphins Apr 19 16 – 44 6.40 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 20 22 – 6 26.90 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 30 – 34 -10.00 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 20 34 – 10 12.80 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 21 36 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 21 42 – 6 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 Warriors 18.10
2 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -7.30
3 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 Storm 13.70
4 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 26 Sea Eagles 8.00
5 Wests Tigers vs. Broncos Apr 27 Broncos -16.30
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Apr 27 Panthers -8.90
7 Dolphins vs. Knights Apr 28 Dolphins 0.70
8 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -3.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 16.35 10.50 5.90
Melbourne Demons 15.87 13.91 2.00
Brisbane Lions 13.39 17.47 -4.10
GWS Giants 12.58 12.60 -0.00
Carlton Blues 12.01 9.73 2.30
Sydney Swans 11.20 9.23 2.00
Collingwood 11.12 14.87 -3.70
Western Bulldogs 8.43 6.04 2.40
Port Adelaide Power 7.23 8.83 -1.60
Adelaide Crows 2.88 9.56 -6.70
Fremantle Dockers 1.41 0.40 1.00
St Kilda Saints -0.60 -0.63 0.00
Gold Coast Suns -4.80 -4.60 -0.20
Richmond Tigers -10.08 -6.13 -3.90
Essendon Bombers -10.54 -17.70 7.20
Hawthorn Hawks -14.46 -11.08 -3.40
North Melbourne -33.24 -25.73 -7.50
West Coast Eagles -34.58 -43.10 8.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 18 64 – 124 -2.10 TRUE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 19 75 – 78 26.30 FALSE
3 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 20 123 – 81 8.50 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants Apr 20 117 – 98 5.50 TRUE
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Apr 20 37 – 63 10.70 FALSE
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 20 105 – 68 -45.30 FALSE
7 Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 21 110 – 57 20.80 TRUE
8 North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 21 68 – 113 -4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 24 Melbourne Demons -26.00
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Collingwood Apr 25 Collingwood -30.70
3 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 25 GWS Giants 8.20
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power 16.80
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 27 Adelaide Crows -27.10
6 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Apr 27 Carlton Blues -4.70
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 27 Fremantle Dockers 2.00
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 28 Gold Coast Suns 38.80
9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Apr 28 Sydney Swans -16.70

 

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April 16, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.58 18.86 -4.30
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 12.94 9.73 3.20
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.36 0.07 1.30
Highlanders -0.13 1.17 -1.30
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 17 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 43 – 40 -12.90 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 36 – 23 1.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 47 – 31 -0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 Hurricanes -15.30
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 Reds 6.50
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Blues 11.00
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 Crusaders -17.80

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.72 14.73 -2.00
Broncos 8.12 9.07 -0.90
Storm 5.09 6.15 -1.10
Roosters 4.68 3.08 1.60
Sharks 2.10 2.94 -0.80
Cowboys 2.04 2.47 -0.40
Sea Eagles 1.88 -0.48 2.40
Warriors 1.65 -0.07 1.70
Knights 1.25 1.84 -0.60
Eels -1.50 0.14 -1.60
Raiders -1.65 -4.31 2.70
Dolphins -4.87 -7.09 2.20
Rabbitohs -5.07 0.87 -5.90
Dragons -7.34 -6.93 -0.40
Bulldogs -8.83 -13.35 4.50
Titans -11.08 -7.89 -3.20
Wests Tigers -11.18 -13.15 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Roosters Apr 11 20 – 22 -0.20 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 16 – 14 19.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Dolphins Apr 12 28 – 14 16.30 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 22 – 22 7.70 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Apr 13 27 – 20 -1.60 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Apr 13 22 – 34 -3.00 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Apr 14 12 – 24 0.70 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Titans Apr 14 21 – 20 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Apr 18 Roosters 2.60
2 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 19 Warriors -2.00
3 Eels vs. Dolphins Apr 19 Eels 6.40
4 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 20 Panthers 26.90
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 Sea Eagles -10.00
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 20 Broncos 12.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 21 Knights -7.10
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 21 Sharks 3.10

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 15.87 13.91 2.00
Brisbane Lions 15.74 17.47 -1.70
GWS Giants 14.07 12.60 1.50
Geelong Cats 14.00 10.50 3.50
Carlton Blues 10.52 9.73 0.80
Port Adelaide Power 9.41 8.83 0.60
Sydney Swans 9.09 9.23 -0.10
Collingwood 8.94 14.87 -5.90
Fremantle Dockers 6.08 0.40 5.70
Western Bulldogs 4.96 6.04 -1.10
Adelaide Crows 4.82 9.56 -4.70
St Kilda Saints 2.86 -0.63 3.50
Gold Coast Suns -2.70 -4.60 1.90
Richmond Tigers -10.08 -6.13 -3.90
Essendon Bombers -12.48 -17.70 5.20
Hawthorn Hawks -17.01 -11.08 -5.90
North Melbourne -30.69 -25.73 -5.00
West Coast Eagles -39.25 -43.10 3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 11 60 – 82 13.70 FALSE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 67 – 96 23.90 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 13 80 – 79 23.30 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 13 98 – 100 17.40 FALSE
5 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 109 – 56 18.90 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 66 – 63 15.00 TRUE
7 Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne Apr 14 139 – 64 50.30 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 14 109 – 70 -28.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 18 Western Bulldogs -2.10
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 19 Adelaide Crows 26.30
3 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 20 Collingwood 8.50
4 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants Apr 20 Carlton Blues 5.50
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Apr 20 Brisbane Lions 10.70
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 20 Fremantle Dockers -45.30
7 Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 21 Sydney Swans 20.80
8 North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 21 Hawthorn Hawks -4.70

 

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April 9, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.22 18.86 -3.60
Chiefs 13.80 13.21 0.60
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Hurricanes 12.45 9.73 2.70
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.88 0.07 1.80
Highlanders 0.51 1.17 -0.70
Waratahs -2.69 -1.90 -0.80
Rebels -4.51 -4.59 0.10
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.59 -10.80 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Western Force Apr 05 50 – 3 24.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Apr 05 41 – 20 4.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 06 68 – 12 27.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 06 40 – 16 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 Reds -9.50
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 Crusaders -12.90
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 Hurricanes 1.60
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 Highlanders -0.00

 

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