Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Knights vs. Roosters||Jul 25||16 – 12||-5.80||FALSE|
|2||Broncos vs. Storm||Jul 25||8 – 30||7.40||FALSE|
|3||Panthers vs. Sharks||Jul 26||16 – 18||14.80||FALSE|
|4||Titans vs. Eels||Jul 26||18 – 24||11.20||FALSE|
|5||Bulldogs vs. Cowboys||Jul 26||12 – 20||0.50||FALSE|
|6||Warriors vs. Sea Eagles||Jul 27||12 – 22||1.90||FALSE|
|7||Wests Tigers vs. Dragons||Jul 27||12 – 28||3.60||FALSE|
|8||Raiders vs. Rabbitohs||Jul 28||18 – 34||-7.60||TRUE|
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Sea Eagles vs. Broncos||Aug 01||Sea Eagles||12.90|
|2||Bulldogs vs. Panthers||Aug 01||Bulldogs||3.80|
|3||Sharks vs. Eels||Aug 02||Sharks||5.90|
|4||Cowboys vs. Titans||Aug 02||Cowboys||14.50|
|5||Roosters vs. Dragons||Aug 02||Roosters||14.00|
|6||Raiders vs. Warriors||Aug 03||Warriors||-6.10|
|7||Rabbitohs vs. Knights||Aug 03||Rabbitohs||13.30|
|8||Wests Tigers vs. Storm||Aug 04||Storm||-5.20|