Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 176 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers||Aug 21||30 – 10||15.40||TRUE|
|2||Eels vs. Sea Eagles||Aug 22||22 – 12||-9.50||FALSE|
|3||Broncos vs. Knights||Aug 23||48 – 6||8.40||TRUE|
|4||Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys||Aug 23||10 – 22||8.40||FALSE|
|5||Warriors vs. Roosters||Aug 24||12 – 46||0.60||FALSE|
|6||Sharks vs. Raiders||Aug 24||12 – 22||4.70||FALSE|
|7||Dragons vs. Titans||Aug 24||34 – 6||7.20||TRUE|
|8||Panthers vs. Storm||Aug 25||10 – 24||0.90||FALSE|
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team
|1||Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs||Aug 28||Rabbitohs||-8.90|
|2||Broncos vs. Dragons||Aug 29||Broncos||8.90|
|3||Knights vs. Eels||Aug 30||Knights||4.50|
|4||Raiders vs. Wests Tigers||Aug 30||Raiders||10.20|
|5||Roosters vs. Storm||Aug 30||Roosters||8.20|
|6||Warriors vs. Titans||Aug 31||Warriors||12.20|
|7||Sea Eagles vs. Panthers||Aug 31||Sea Eagles||8.90|
|8||Cowboys vs. Sharks||Sep 01||Cowboys||26.30|