Team Ratings for the Semi-finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 139 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Brumbies vs. Highlanders||Jul 22||9 – 15||-1.50||TRUE|
|2||Hurricanes vs. Sharks||Jul 22||41 – 0||12.70||TRUE|
|3||Lions vs. Crusaders||Jul 23||42 – 25||-0.20||FALSE|
|4||Stormers vs. Chiefs||Jul 23||21 – 60||-0.80||TRUE|
Predictions for the Semi-finals
Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Hurricanes vs. Chiefs||Jul 30||Hurricanes||5.20|
|2||Lions vs. Highlanders||Jul 30||Lions||1.20|