Posts written by David Scott (248)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 5, 2015

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.93 4.93 -0.00
Sharks 3.43 3.43 0.00
Lions 3.04 3.04 -0.00
Blue Bulls 0.17 0.17 0.00
Cheetahs -1.75 -1.75 -0.00
Pumas -6.47 -6.47 0.00
Griquas -7.81 -7.81 -0.00
Kings -9.44 -9.44 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 07 Western Province -9.20
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 07 Sharks -6.40
3 Kings vs. Lions Aug 08 Lions -9.00
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 08 Cheetahs 1.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 22

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.71 9.09 1.60
Cowboys 7.85 9.52 -1.70
Broncos 6.90 4.03 2.90
Rabbitohs 5.77 13.06 -7.30
Storm 3.16 4.36 -1.20
Sea Eagles 2.88 2.68 0.20
Bulldogs 1.33 0.21 1.10
Dragons -0.79 -1.74 0.90
Raiders -0.84 -7.09 6.20
Warriors -0.91 3.07 -4.00
Sharks -1.24 -10.76 9.50
Panthers -3.11 3.69 -6.80
Eels -6.60 -7.19 0.60
Wests Tigers -6.83 -13.13 6.30
Knights -7.38 -0.28 -7.10
Titans -9.57 -8.20 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 38 – 28 12.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 31 34 – 16 -10.90 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 01 14 – 18 5.70 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 32 – 24 12.30 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 44 – 14 -5.80 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Aug 02 46 – 24 7.60 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 02 20 – 16 13.20 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Eels Aug 03 24 – 14 -1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 07 Broncos 8.60
2 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Aug 07 Sea Eagles 0.10
3 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 08 Warriors 3.90
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 08 Cowboys -6.10
5 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 08 Panthers -0.50
6 Storm vs. Titans Aug 09 Storm 15.70
7 Knights vs. Roosters Aug 09 Roosters -15.10
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 10 Raiders 9.00

 

July 29, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.93 9.09 1.80
Broncos 9.29 4.03 5.30
Cowboys 8.18 9.52 -1.30
Rabbitohs 6.42 13.06 -6.60
Storm 5.12 4.36 0.80
Bulldogs 1.11 0.21 0.90
Sea Eagles 0.49 2.68 -2.20
Warriors -0.22 3.07 -3.30
Raiders -1.16 -7.09 5.90
Dragons -1.80 -1.74 -0.10
Sharks -1.93 -10.76 8.80
Panthers -3.77 3.69 -7.50
Eels -5.78 -7.19 1.40
Knights -6.37 -0.28 -6.10
Wests Tigers -8.78 -13.13 4.30
Titans -10.39 -8.20 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Titans Jul 24 34 – 0 20.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 24 8 – 33 -15.30 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 25 52 – 6 11.10 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 25 22 – 4 8.60 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 12 – 32 7.00 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 26 16 – 18 7.40 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 26 24 – 34 2.10 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 27 46 – 4 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 Roosters 12.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 31 Storm -10.90
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 01 Warriors 5.70
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 Cowboys 12.30
5 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 Broncos -5.80
6 Dragons vs. Knights Aug 02 Dragons 7.60
7 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 02 Rabbitohs 13.20
8 Titans vs. Eels Aug 03 Eels -1.60

 

July 22, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.23 9.09 1.10
Broncos 8.36 4.03 4.30
Cowboys 6.22 9.52 -3.30
Storm 4.44 4.36 0.10
Rabbitohs 4.09 13.06 -9.00
Bulldogs 1.78 0.21 1.60
Warriors 1.61 3.07 -1.50
Dragons -1.12 -1.74 0.60
Sea Eagles -1.34 2.68 -4.00
Raiders -2.02 -7.09 5.10
Sharks -2.60 -10.76 8.20
Panthers -2.91 3.69 -6.60
Eels -3.82 -7.19 3.40
Knights -4.03 -0.28 -3.80
Wests Tigers -8.09 -13.13 5.00
Titans -9.46 -8.20 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 17 52 – 10 5.50 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 17 4 – 28 0.80 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 8 – 24 0.00 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 18 30 – 2 5.30 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 18 20 – 21 4.40 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 19 24 – 0 10.80 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 19 42 – 16 18.40 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 20 12 – 30 -2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Titans Jul 24 Broncos 20.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 24 Roosters -15.30
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 25 Rabbitohs 11.10
4 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 25 Storm 8.60
5 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 Warriors 7.00
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 26 Bulldogs 7.40
7 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 26 Panthers 2.10
8 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 27 Cowboys 13.00

 

July 15, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.81 4.03 3.80
Cowboys 5.13 9.52 -4.40
Rabbitohs 2.97 13.06 -10.10
Warriors 2.54 3.07 -0.50
Storm 2.00 4.36 -2.40
Panthers 0.60 3.69 -3.10
Bulldogs 0.10 0.21 -0.10
Dragons -0.01 -1.74 1.70
Sea Eagles -0.26 2.68 -2.90
Raiders -1.62 -7.09 5.50
Eels -2.14 -7.19 5.00
Sharks -3.00 -10.76 7.80
Knights -5.58 -0.28 -5.30
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60
Titans -7.91 -8.20 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 10 36 – 22 5.80 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 11 8 – 16 -4.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 12 28 – 14 3.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 12 28 – 8 -3.20 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 6 – 38 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 17 Storm 4.40
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 17 Eels 0.80
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 Dragons 0.00
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 18 Knights 5.30
5 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 18 Raiders 4.40
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 19 Roosters 9.70
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 19 Broncos 18.40
8 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 20 Cowboys -2.40

 

July 8, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.52 4.03 3.50
Cowboys 5.13 9.52 -4.40
Rabbitohs 2.97 13.06 -10.10
Storm 2.78 4.36 -1.60
Warriors 1.76 3.07 -1.30
Dragons 1.57 -1.74 3.30
Panthers 0.60 3.69 -3.10
Bulldogs 0.38 0.21 0.20
Eels -2.14 -7.19 5.00
Raiders -2.21 -7.09 4.90
Sea Eagles -2.38 2.68 -5.10
Sharks -4.58 -10.76 6.20
Knights -4.99 -0.28 -4.70
Titans -5.78 -8.20 2.40
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 20 – 6 -1.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 04 12 – 18 0.40 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 05 28 – 16 4.10 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 06 16 – 28 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 10 Raiders 5.80
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 11 Broncos -4.10
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 12 Warriors 3.00
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 12 Dragons -3.20
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 Sea Eagles -0.40
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 11 Roosters -4.60

 

July 1, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.52 4.03 3.50
Cowboys 4.67 9.52 -4.90
Rabbitohs 4.06 13.06 -9.00
Storm 2.78 4.36 -1.60
Dragons 2.04 -1.74 3.80
Warriors 1.76 3.07 -1.30
Bulldogs 0.38 0.21 0.20
Panthers -0.49 3.69 -4.20
Raiders -2.21 -7.09 4.90
Eels -2.93 -7.19 4.30
Sea Eagles -2.96 2.68 -5.60
Sharks -4.01 -10.76 6.70
Knights -4.99 -0.28 -4.70
Titans -5.78 -8.20 2.40
Wests Tigers -6.74 -13.13 6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 26 44 – 22 14.40 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 26 20 – 8 9.70 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 27 18 – 24 14.50 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 27 16 – 12 -3.00 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Raiders Jun 27 30 – 8 5.70 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Titans Jun 28 20 – 10 18.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 28 12 – 35 -0.10 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 29 20 – 4 -1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 Rabbitohs -1.50
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 04 Dragons 0.40
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 05 Sea Eagles 4.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 06 Eels -0.80

 

Super 15 Prediction for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 9.06 2.89 6.20
Highlanders 6.98 -2.54 9.50
Waratahs 6.13 10.00 -3.90
Brumbies 4.27 2.20 2.10
Chiefs 3.58 2.23 1.40
Stormers 0.47 1.68 -1.20
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 27 29 – 9 7.80 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jun 27 17 – 35 6.40 FALSE

 

Prediction for the Final

Here is the prediction for the final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 04 Hurricanes 6.10

 

June 24, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.82 9.09 -0.30
Broncos 6.98 4.03 2.90
Cowboys 6.07 9.52 -3.50
Storm 4.02 4.36 -0.30
Rabbitohs 3.88 13.06 -9.20
Dragons 2.55 -1.74 4.30
Warriors 0.63 3.07 -2.40
Bulldogs -0.85 0.21 -1.10
Raiders -1.08 -7.09 6.00
Panthers -2.05 3.69 -5.70
Sea Eagles -2.78 2.68 -5.50
Eels -3.44 -7.19 3.70
Knights -4.44 -0.28 -4.20
Wests Tigers -5.18 -13.13 7.90
Sharks -5.42 -10.76 5.30
Titans -6.37 -8.20 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 110 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 30 – 20 4.60 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Jun 20 24 – 12 2.90 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 20 20 – 21 -4.70 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 20 14 – 36 0.00 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Sharks Jun 21 28 – 30 5.00 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 21 12 – 14 0.40 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Jun 22 14 – 19 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 26 Broncos 14.40
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 26 Rabbitohs 9.70
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 27 Cowboys 14.50
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 27 Dragons -3.00
5 Warriors vs. Raiders Jun 27 Warriors 5.70
6 Roosters vs. Titans Jun 28 Roosters 18.20
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 28 Panthers -0.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 29 Storm -1.90

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals: Correction

I made a mistake in entering the fixtures and had the Waratahs playing away.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 8.31 2.89 5.40
Waratahs 7.48 10.00 -2.50
Highlanders 5.62 -2.54 8.20
Brumbies 5.03 2.20 2.80
Chiefs 3.58 2.23 1.40
Stormers 0.47 1.68 -1.20
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 20 24 – 14 5.40 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Brumbies Jun 20 19 – 39 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 27 Hurricanes 7.80
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jun 27 Waratahs 6.40