Posts written by David Scott (328)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 27, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 11.19 7.26 3.90
Chiefs 9.46 2.68 6.80
Highlanders 8.92 6.80 2.10
Crusaders 8.25 9.84 -1.60
Lions 6.09 -1.80 7.90
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Brumbies 2.91 3.15 -0.20
Stormers 0.12 -0.62 0.70
Sharks -0.91 -1.64 0.70
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jul 22 9 – 15 -1.50 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Jul 22 41 – 0 12.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Crusaders Jul 23 42 – 25 -0.20 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 23 21 – 60 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 30 Hurricanes 5.20
2 Lions vs. Highlanders Jul 30 Lions 1.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.93 10.29 0.60
Storm 10.11 4.41 5.70
Sharks 7.79 -1.06 8.80
Bulldogs 3.09 1.50 1.60
Broncos 2.71 9.81 -7.10
Raiders 2.54 -0.55 3.10
Panthers 0.13 -3.06 3.20
Sea Eagles 0.08 0.36 -0.30
Eels -0.77 -4.62 3.90
Titans -0.79 -8.39 7.60
Warriors -1.74 -7.47 5.70
Roosters -1.89 11.20 -13.10
Wests Tigers -3.72 -4.06 0.30
Rabbitohs -5.50 -1.20 -4.30
Dragons -6.35 -0.10 -6.30
Knights -14.95 -5.41 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jul 21 36 – 0 6.90 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 22 12 – 31 9.40 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 26 – 22 9.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 23 34 – 14 0.30 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Roosters Jul 23 26 – 10 14.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 24 36 – 4 24.70 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 12 – 25 -0.90 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 12 – 20 -1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Jul 28 Broncos -1.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jul 29 Bulldogs 12.40
3 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 30 Warriors 2.10
4 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 Eels 6.00
5 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 30 Cowboys 3.80
6 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Jul 31 Raiders -5.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 31 Sea Eagles 18.00
8 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 01 Sharks -5.60

 

July 20, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 9.50 7.26 2.20
Crusaders 9.28 9.84 -0.60
Highlanders 8.65 6.80 1.90
Chiefs 7.17 2.68 4.50
Waratahs 5.12 4.88 0.20
Lions 5.06 -1.80 6.90
Brumbies 3.18 3.15 0.00
Stormers 2.41 -0.62 3.00
Sharks 0.79 -1.64 2.40
Bulls -1.13 -0.74 -0.40
Blues -2.11 -5.51 3.40
Jaguares -7.37 -10.00 2.60
Cheetahs -9.10 -9.27 0.20
Rebels -9.53 -6.33 -3.20
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Reds -11.74 -9.81 -1.90
Sunwolves -20.76 -10.00 -10.80
Kings -21.84 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jul 15 34 – 28 -4.50 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 15 28 – 31 1.90 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Jul 15 40 – 29 27.50 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 16 10 – 35 7.10 FALSE
5 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jul 16 25 – 15 4.30 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Force Jul 16 24 – 10 18.00 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Kings Jul 16 52 – 24 27.70 TRUE
8 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jul 16 17 – 43 -1.50 TRUE
9 Jaguares vs. Lions Jul 16 34 – 22 -11.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jul 22 Highlanders -1.50
2 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Jul 22 Hurricanes 12.70
3 Lions vs. Crusaders Jul 23 Crusaders -0.20
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 23 Chiefs -0.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.02 4.41 5.60
Cowboys 8.96 10.29 -1.30
Sharks 7.26 -1.06 8.30
Bulldogs 5.05 1.50 3.60
Broncos 4.63 9.81 -5.20
Raiders 2.95 -0.55 3.50
Eels 0.59 -4.62 5.20
Sea Eagles -0.38 0.36 -0.70
Panthers -1.79 -3.06 1.30
Roosters -1.80 11.20 -13.00
Warriors -2.15 -7.47 5.30
Titans -2.15 -8.39 6.20
Wests Tigers -4.57 -4.06 -0.50
Rabbitohs -5.03 -1.20 -3.80
Dragons -5.50 -0.10 -5.40
Knights -14.42 -5.41 -9.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 15 12 – 32 2.80 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 16 15 – 14 1.90 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 16 10 – 30 -4.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Storm Jul 17 16 – 20 -24.20 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 17 22 – 18 -0.00 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 18 20 – 32 -5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jul 21 Cowboys 6.90
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 22 Broncos 9.40
3 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 Raiders 9.10
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 23 Titans 0.30
5 Storm vs. Roosters Jul 23 Storm 14.80
6 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 24 Sharks 24.70
7 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 Wests Tigers -0.90
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 Sea Eagles -1.70

 

July 13, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 11.21 9.84 1.40
Highlanders 8.31 6.80 1.50
Hurricanes 7.57 7.26 0.30
Chiefs 7.51 2.68 4.80
Lions 6.45 -1.80 8.30
Waratahs 5.75 4.88 0.90
Brumbies 3.42 3.15 0.30
Stormers 2.39 -0.62 3.00
Sharks 1.78 -1.64 3.40
Bulls -2.60 -0.74 -1.90
Blues -2.74 -5.51 2.80
Cheetahs -7.63 -9.27 1.60
Jaguares -8.76 -10.00 1.20
Rebels -9.82 -6.33 -3.50
Force -11.05 -8.43 -2.60
Reds -11.45 -9.81 -1.60
Sunwolves -21.76 -10.00 -11.80
Kings -21.82 -13.66 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jul 08 40 – 15 -5.90 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Chiefs Jul 08 5 – 50 -10.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Kings Jul 08 57 – 21 31.20 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Rebels Jul 09 85 – 26 20.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jul 09 17 – 28 4.00 FALSE
6 Force vs. Stormers Jul 09 3 – 22 -8.10 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Sunwolves Jul 09 50 – 3 19.90 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 09 26 – 10 12.50 TRUE
9 Jaguares vs. Highlanders Jul 09 8 – 34 -11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Waratahs Jul 15 Waratahs -4.50
2 Reds vs. Rebels Jul 15 Reds 1.90
3 Sharks vs. Sunwolves Jul 15 Sharks 27.50
4 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 16 Crusaders 7.10
5 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jul 16 Highlanders 4.30
6 Brumbies vs. Force Jul 16 Brumbies 18.00
7 Stormers vs. Kings Jul 16 Stormers 27.70
8 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jul 16 Bulls -1.50
9 Jaguares vs. Lions Jul 16 Lions -11.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.41 4.41 7.00
Cowboys 8.96 10.29 -1.30
Sharks 6.75 -1.06 7.80
Bulldogs 5.05 1.50 3.60
Broncos 3.55 9.81 -6.30
Raiders 2.95 -0.55 3.50
Eels 0.91 -4.62 5.50
Sea Eagles -0.31 0.36 -0.70
Roosters -1.29 11.20 -12.50
Panthers -2.11 -3.06 0.90
Warriors -2.22 -7.47 5.20
Titans -3.70 -8.39 4.70
Dragons -3.94 -0.10 -3.80
Rabbitohs -3.95 -1.20 -2.70
Wests Tigers -4.57 -4.06 -0.50
Knights -15.81 -5.41 -10.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Roosters Jul 08 22 – 18 5.40 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 09 32 – 22 9.60 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 10 10 – 26 -4.20 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 11 26 – 12 -5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 15 Dragons 2.80
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 16 Sea Eagles 1.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jul 16 Broncos -4.50
4 Knights vs. Storm Jul 17 Storm -24.20
5 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 17 Eels -0.00
6 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 18 Sharks -5.00

 

July 6, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.89 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 7.43 6.80 0.60
Hurricanes 6.67 7.26 -0.60
Waratahs 6.65 4.88 1.80
Lions 6.17 -1.80 8.00
Chiefs 5.46 2.68 2.80
Brumbies 5.27 3.15 2.10
Stormers 1.74 -0.62 2.40
Sharks 1.57 -1.64 3.20
Bulls -4.23 -0.74 -3.50
Blues -4.59 -5.51 0.90
Cheetahs -7.42 -9.27 1.90
Rebels -7.50 -6.33 -1.20
Jaguares -7.88 -10.00 2.10
Reds -9.40 -9.81 0.40
Force -10.40 -8.43 -2.00
Sunwolves -20.13 -10.00 -10.10
Kings -21.54 -13.66 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 117 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 01 23 – 13 -5.30 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jul 01 43 – 24 18.10 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Jul 02 12 – 57 -19.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 02 37 – 27 15.40 TRUE
5 Rebels vs. Stormers Jul 02 31 – 57 -2.40 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Force Jul 02 30 – 29 7.80 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Highlanders Jul 02 18 – 48 -24.30 TRUE
8 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 02 37 – 10 5.50 TRUE
9 Jaguares vs. Bulls Jul 02 29 – 11 -2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jul 08 Brumbies -5.90
2 Reds vs. Chiefs Jul 08 Chiefs -10.90
3 Lions vs. Kings Jul 08 Lions 31.20
4 Crusaders vs. Rebels Jul 09 Crusaders 20.40
5 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jul 09 Waratahs 4.00
6 Force vs. Stormers Jul 09 Stormers -8.10
7 Bulls vs. Sunwolves Jul 09 Bulls 19.90
8 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 09 Sharks 12.50
9 Jaguares vs. Highlanders Jul 09 Highlanders -11.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.41 4.41 7.00
Cowboys 10.32 10.29 0.00
Sharks 5.92 -1.06 7.00
Bulldogs 5.02 1.50 3.50
Broncos 3.55 9.81 -6.30
Raiders 1.59 -0.55 2.10
Eels 1.03 -4.62 5.70
Sea Eagles -0.31 0.36 -0.70
Panthers -1.28 -3.06 1.80
Roosters -1.41 11.20 -12.60
Warriors -2.22 -7.47 5.20
Titans -3.70 -8.39 4.70
Dragons -3.94 -0.10 -3.80
Rabbitohs -3.95 -1.20 -2.70
Wests Tigers -4.54 -4.06 -0.50
Knights -15.81 -5.41 -10.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 20 – 24 -3.30 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 01 6 – 48 0.80 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Titans Jul 02 27 – 18 4.80 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 02 34 – 26 -1.60 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Eels Jul 02 34 – 24 7.50 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 03 29 – 25 23.00 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 03 0 – 20 -9.80 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 04 36 – 6 3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Roosters Jul 08 Eels 5.40
2 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 09 Bulldogs 9.60
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 10 Sharks -4.20
4 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 11 Cowboys -5.70

 

June 28, 2016

Updated Super Rugby Predictions

I posted predictions for Round 15 before the international games. I have just updated the predictions because I had not taken into account that the Chiefs versus Crusaders game is to be on a neutral ground.

See the updated post atSuper 18 Predictions for Round 15

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 9.60 10.29 -0.70
Storm 8.57 4.41 4.20
Broncos 6.39 9.81 -3.40
Sharks 5.71 -1.06 6.80
Bulldogs 4.96 1.50 3.50
Raiders 2.90 -0.55 3.50
Eels 1.23 -4.62 5.90
Panthers -0.59 -3.06 2.50
Roosters -1.35 11.20 -12.60
Dragons -2.11 -0.10 -2.00
Sea Eagles -2.14 0.36 -2.50
Warriors -2.56 -7.47 4.90
Rabbitohs -3.23 -1.20 -2.00
Titans -3.37 -8.39 5.00
Wests Tigers -5.23 -4.06 -1.20
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 24 28 – 26 6.30 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 25 18 – 30 -12.00 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 25 19 – 18 14.10 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jun 25 40 – 14 -2.30 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Raiders Jun 26 22 – 30 -2.40 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 26 29 – 20 18.10 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 27 30 – 26 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 30 Bulldogs -3.30
2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 01 Broncos 0.80
3 Warriors vs. Titans Jul 02 Warriors 4.80
4 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 02 Panthers -1.60
5 Sharks vs. Eels Jul 02 Sharks 7.50
6 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 03 Raiders 23.00
7 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Cowboys -9.80
8 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 04 Sea Eagles 3.00