Posts written by David Scott (180)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 20, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 12.31 5.82 6.50
Cowboys 8.42 6.01 2.40
Roosters 8.31 12.35 -4.00
Sea Eagles 7.28 9.10 -1.80
Storm 6.12 7.64 -1.50
Warriors 4.45 -0.72 5.20
Panthers 2.51 -2.48 5.00
Broncos 1.76 -4.69 6.40
Dragons -1.60 -7.57 6.00
Knights -2.10 5.23 -7.30
Bulldogs -3.37 2.46 -5.80
Titans -4.27 1.45 -5.70
Eels -6.70 -18.45 11.80
Sharks -10.20 2.32 -12.50
Raiders -10.43 -8.99 -1.40
Wests Tigers -14.28 -11.26 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 14 42 – 16 12.60 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 16 – 18 2.00 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 16 16 – 34 -1.30 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 16 48 – 6 16.40 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 16 4 – 48 -12.80 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 17 28 – 22 -4.00 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 12 – 15 -8.10 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 18 23 – 22 -2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 21 Bulldogs 15.40
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Sea Eagles -9.50
3 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 23 Broncos 8.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Aug 23 Rabbitohs 8.40
5 Warriors vs. Roosters Aug 24 Warriors 0.60
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 24 Sharks 4.70
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 24 Dragons 7.20
8 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 25 Panthers 0.90

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60
Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00
Tasman 6.79 5.78 1.00
Auckland 3.31 4.92 -1.60
Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 1.75 2.75 -1.00
Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00
Otago -1.29 -1.45 0.20
Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20
Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60
Bay of Plenty -6.08 -5.47 -0.60
Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90
Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90
North Harbour -9.93 -9.77 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 14 9 – 9 -2.30 FALSE
2 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 34 – 23 3.60 TRUE
3 Otago vs. North Harbour Aug 16 28 – 14 12.30 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 16 48 – 9 17.20 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Waikato Aug 16 25 – 37 15.40 FALSE
6 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 35 – 15 7.00 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 23 – 28 6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Southland Aug 21 Southland -0.70
2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 22 Canterbury -14.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay 9.40
4 Northland vs. Wellington Aug 23 Wellington -13.30
5 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Aug 23 Counties Manukau 7.50
6 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 24 Auckland -8.80
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Aug 24 Tasman -8.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.90 3.43 1.50
Sharks 4.87 5.09 -0.20
Lions 2.77 0.07 2.70
Cheetahs -0.78 0.33 -1.10
Blue Bulls -2.84 -0.74 -2.10
Griquas -7.10 -7.49 0.40
Pumas -9.07 -10.00 0.90
Kings -12.06 -10.00 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Aug 15 34 – 17 19.30 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 16 41 – 17 11.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Kings Aug 16 60 – 19 17.00 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 16 34 – 27 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 22 Pumas 3.00
2 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 23 Blue Bulls 14.20
3 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 23 Western Province 7.10
4 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 23 Sharks 10.60

 

August 13, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.06 5.82 5.20
Cowboys 8.75 6.01 2.70
Sea Eagles 7.80 9.10 -1.30
Roosters 5.65 12.35 -6.70
Warriors 5.40 -0.72 6.10
Storm 3.89 7.64 -3.70
Broncos 3.00 -4.69 7.70
Panthers 2.18 -2.48 4.70
Knights -3.05 5.23 -8.30
Dragons -3.11 -7.57 4.50
Bulldogs -3.78 2.46 -6.20
Titans -4.79 1.45 -6.20
Eels -6.28 -18.45 12.20
Sharks -7.97 2.32 -10.30
Raiders -8.92 -8.99 0.10
Wests Tigers -11.62 -11.26 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 23 – 4 5.20 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 41 – 10 7.10 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 09 64 – 6 18.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 09 32 – 30 -3.60 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Raiders Aug 09 18 – 10 6.90 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 10 16 – 12 20.90 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 10 4 – 16 1.80 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 11 26 – 18 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 14 Rabbitohs 12.60
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 Eels 2.00
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 16 Dragons -1.30
4 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 16 Storm 16.40
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 16 Roosters -12.80
6 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 17 Warriors -4.00
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 Sea Eagles -8.10
8 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 18 Cowboys -2.10

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.09 18.09 0.00
Wellington 10.16 10.16 0.00
Tasman 5.78 5.78 0.00
Auckland 4.92 4.92 0.00
Hawke’s Bay 2.75 2.75 0.00
Counties Manukau 2.40 2.40 0.00
Waikato -1.20 -1.20 0.00
Otago -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Taranaki -3.89 -3.89 0.00
Bay of Plenty -5.47 -5.47 0.00
Southland -5.85 -5.85 0.00
Northland -8.22 -8.22 0.00
North Harbour -9.77 -9.77 0.00
Manawatu -10.32 -10.32 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 14 Counties Manukau -2.30
2 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 Southland 3.60
3 Otago vs. North Harbour Aug 16 Otago 12.30
4 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 16 Canterbury 17.20
5 Wellington vs. Waikato Aug 16 Wellington 15.40
6 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 Tasman 7.00
7 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 Northland 6.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.04 5.09 -0.00
Western Province 4.10 3.43 0.70
Lions 1.37 0.07 1.30
Cheetahs -0.44 0.33 -0.80
Blue Bulls -2.04 -0.74 -1.30
Griquas -7.45 -7.49 0.00
Pumas -9.23 -10.00 0.80
Kings -10.67 -10.00 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Western Province Aug 08 16 – 35 -8.40 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Aug 09 24 – 31 -7.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Aug 09 41 – 13 5.80 TRUE
4 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 09 28 – 21 -5.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Aug 15 Sharks 19.30
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 16 Western Province 11.10
3 Lions vs. Kings Aug 16 Lions 17.00
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 16 Cheetahs 12.00

 

August 6, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 22

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.79 5.82 4.00
Sea Eagles 9.07 9.10 -0.00
Warriors 6.94 -0.72 7.70
Roosters 6.48 12.35 -5.90
Cowboys 5.45 6.01 -0.60
Storm 4.45 7.64 -3.20
Broncos 0.92 -4.69 5.60
Panthers 0.91 -2.48 3.40
Bulldogs -1.70 2.46 -4.20
Dragons -1.84 -7.57 5.70
Knights -3.61 5.23 -8.80
Titans -5.63 1.45 -7.10
Eels -6.41 -18.45 12.00
Wests Tigers -8.33 -11.26 2.90
Raiders -8.79 -8.99 0.20
Sharks -9.50 2.32 -11.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 16 – 4 12.90 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 01 16 – 22 3.80 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 02 12 – 32 5.90 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Aug 02 28 – 8 14.50 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 02 30 – 22 14.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Warriors Aug 03 18 – 54 -6.10 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 03 50 – 10 13.30 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Aug 04 6 – 28 -5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 Rabbitohs 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 Broncos 7.10
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 09 Cowboys 18.30
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 09 Storm -3.60
5 Eels vs. Raiders Aug 09 Eels 6.90
6 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 10 Warriors 20.90
7 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 10 Dragons 1.80
8 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 11 Roosters 16.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Note that new teams are given a rating of -10. This is somewhat arbitrary, but has proved reasonably satisfactory in predicting Super Rugby games.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.09 5.09 0.00
Western Province 3.43 3.43 -0.00
Cheetahs 0.33 0.33 0.00
Lions 0.07 0.07 0.00
Blue Bulls -0.74 -0.74 0.00
Griquas -7.49 -7.49 0.00
Kings -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Pumas -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Western Province Aug 08 Western Province -8.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Aug 09 Sharks -7.60
3 Lions vs. Blue Bulls Aug 09 Lions 5.80
4 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 09 Cheetahs -5.30

 

July 30, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sea Eagles 9.18 9.10 0.10
Rabbitohs 7.48 5.82 1.70
Roosters 7.09 12.35 -5.30
Cowboys 4.89 6.01 -1.10
Warriors 4.38 -0.72 5.10
Storm 2.94 7.64 -4.70
Broncos 0.81 -4.69 5.50
Panthers -0.02 -2.48 2.50
Bulldogs -0.76 2.46 -3.20
Knights -1.30 5.23 -6.50
Dragons -2.44 -7.57 5.10
Titans -5.06 1.45 -6.50
Raiders -6.23 -8.99 2.80
Wests Tigers -6.81 -11.26 4.50
Sharks -7.26 2.32 -9.60
Eels -8.66 -18.45 9.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 25 16 – 12 -5.80 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 25 8 – 30 7.40 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 26 16 – 18 14.80 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Eels Jul 26 18 – 24 11.20 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Jul 26 12 – 20 0.50 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 12 – 22 1.90 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Jul 27 12 – 28 3.60 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 18 – 34 -7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 Sea Eagles 12.90
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 01 Bulldogs 3.80
3 Sharks vs. Eels Aug 02 Sharks 5.90
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Aug 02 Cowboys 14.50
5 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 02 Roosters 14.00
6 Raiders vs. Warriors Aug 03 Warriors -6.10
7 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 03 Rabbitohs 13.30
8 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Aug 04 Storm -5.20

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 10.21 1.67 8.50
Crusaders 10.20 8.80 1.40
Sharks 3.91 4.57 -0.70
Hurricanes 2.89 -1.44 4.30
Bulls 2.88 4.87 -2.00
Chiefs 2.23 4.38 -2.10
Brumbies 2.20 4.12 -1.90
Stormers 1.68 4.38 -2.70
Blues 1.44 -1.92 3.40
Highlanders -2.54 -4.48 1.90
Lions -3.39 -6.93 3.50
Force -4.67 -5.37 0.70
Reds -4.98 0.58 -5.60
Cheetahs -5.55 0.12 -5.70
Rebels -9.53 -6.36 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks Jul 26 38 – 6 7.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 26 26 – 8 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Aug 02 Waratahs 4.00