Posts written by David Scott (306)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 27, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.46 9.84 -0.40
Chiefs 6.79 2.68 4.10
Hurricanes 6.42 7.26 -0.80
Highlanders 5.50 6.80 -1.30
Waratahs 3.51 4.88 -1.40
Brumbies 2.41 3.15 -0.70
Lions 1.95 -1.80 3.80
Stormers 1.88 -0.62 2.50
Bulls -0.32 -0.74 0.40
Sharks -0.56 -1.64 1.10
Blues -3.92 -5.51 1.60
Rebels -5.24 -6.33 1.10
Cheetahs -6.33 -9.27 2.90
Jaguares -9.20 -10.00 0.80
Reds -9.72 -9.81 0.10
Force -11.01 -8.43 -2.60
Sunwolves -16.26 -10.00 -6.30
Kings -18.59 -13.66 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Apr 22 14 – 15 11.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Apr 22 36 – 14 2.80 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Jaguares Apr 23 36 – 28 -4.60 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 23 27 – 28 3.70 FALSE
5 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 23 13 – 49 -7.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Reds Apr 23 40 – 22 15.30 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Lions Apr 23 10 – 45 -14.60 TRUE
8 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 24 14 – 40 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 29 Chiefs 11.40
2 Force vs. Bulls Apr 29 Bulls -6.70
3 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 30 Highlanders 7.10
4 Blues vs. Rebels Apr 30 Blues 5.30
5 Reds vs. Cheetahs Apr 30 Reds 0.60
6 Lions vs. Hurricanes Apr 30 Hurricanes -0.50
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 30 Stormers 2.40
8 Jaguares vs. Kings Apr 30 Jaguares 13.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.93 10.29 2.60
Broncos 12.04 9.81 2.20
Storm 3.96 4.41 -0.50
Sharks 2.50 -1.06 3.60
Roosters 2.31 11.20 -8.90
Bulldogs 1.11 1.50 -0.40
Eels 1.04 -4.62 5.70
Panthers -0.10 -3.06 3.00
Raiders -0.12 -0.55 0.40
Sea Eagles -0.29 0.36 -0.70
Rabbitohs -0.35 -1.20 0.90
Dragons -2.46 -0.10 -2.40
Titans -4.75 -8.39 3.60
Warriors -6.70 -7.47 0.80
Wests Tigers -8.24 -4.06 -4.20
Knights -11.21 -5.41 -5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 22 30 – 8 14.30 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Titans Apr 23 21 – 20 10.20 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Apr 23 60 – 6 4.60 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Eels Apr 23 32 – 16 14.70 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 24 20 – 18 6.30 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 10 – 26 -6.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 20 – 18 -5.90 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 42 – 0 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 28 Rabbitohs 7.90
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 29 Eels 2.90
3 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 30 Panthers 0.00
4 Roosters vs. Knights Apr 30 Roosters 16.50
5 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Apr 30 Cowboys -10.20
6 Warriors vs. Dragons May 01 Dragons -0.20
7 Titans vs. Storm May 01 Storm -5.70
8 Sharks vs. Broncos May 01 Broncos -6.50

 

April 20, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.89 9.84 -1.90
Hurricanes 6.70 7.26 -0.60
Chiefs 6.51 2.68 3.80
Highlanders 6.25 6.80 -0.50
Brumbies 3.97 3.15 0.80
Waratahs 1.80 4.88 -3.10
Stormers 1.72 -0.62 2.30
Lions 0.73 -1.80 2.50
Bulls -0.32 -0.74 0.40
Sharks -1.31 -1.64 0.30
Blues -3.92 -5.51 1.60
Cheetahs -5.17 -9.27 4.10
Rebels -6.40 -6.33 -0.10
Jaguares -8.44 -10.00 1.60
Force -9.31 -8.43 -0.90
Reds -9.56 -9.81 0.30
Sunwolves -17.01 -10.00 -7.00
Kings -17.37 -13.66 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Apr 15 32 – 15 20.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Apr 15 13 – 38 -6.90 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Apr 15 92 – 17 7.80 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Sharks Apr 16 23 – 18 0.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 16 20 – 26 2.30 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 16 41 – 22 12.40 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 16 29 – 22 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Apr 22 Highlanders 11.60
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Apr 22 Rebels 2.80
3 Sunwolves vs. Jaguares Apr 23 Jaguares -4.60
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 23 Hurricanes 3.70
5 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 23 Waratahs -7.60
6 Stormers vs. Reds Apr 23 Stormers 15.30
7 Kings vs. Lions Apr 23 Lions -14.60
8 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 24 Brumbies 0.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.83 10.29 2.50
Broncos 11.48 9.81 1.70
Roosters 2.88 11.20 -8.30
Sharks 2.84 -1.06 3.90
Storm 1.83 4.41 -2.60
Bulldogs 1.77 1.50 0.30
Eels 1.15 -4.62 5.80
Rabbitohs 0.21 -1.20 1.40
Panthers -0.44 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.96 0.36 -1.30
Dragons -3.03 -0.10 -2.90
Raiders -3.37 -0.55 -2.80
Warriors -4.58 -7.47 2.90
Wests Tigers -4.99 -4.06 -0.90
Titans -5.41 -8.39 3.00
Knights -10.53 -5.41 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 14 10 – 22 3.00 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Apr 15 44 – 18 13.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 16 14 – 19 1.60 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Apr 16 20 – 24 12.70 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Knights Apr 16 53 – 0 20.70 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 17 16 – 40 0.10 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 17 18 – 19 -4.40 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 18 16 – 20 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 22 Broncos 14.30
2 Bulldogs vs. Titans Apr 23 Bulldogs 10.20
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Apr 23 Raiders 4.60
4 Cowboys vs. Eels Apr 23 Cowboys 14.70
5 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 24 Sharks 6.30
6 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 Sea Eagles -6.60
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -5.90
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 10.40

 

April 13, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.12 9.84 -1.70
Chiefs 6.51 2.68 3.80
Highlanders 6.25 6.80 -0.50
Hurricanes 5.62 7.26 -1.60
Brumbies 3.47 3.15 0.30
Waratahs 2.30 4.88 -2.60
Stormers 2.02 -0.62 2.60
Lions 0.42 -1.80 2.20
Bulls -0.72 -0.74 0.00
Sharks -1.06 -1.64 0.60
Blues -4.16 -5.51 1.30
Rebels -5.31 -6.33 1.00
Jaguares -8.67 -10.00 1.30
Reds -9.17 -9.81 0.60
Cheetahs -9.21 -9.27 0.10
Force -9.31 -8.43 -0.90
Sunwolves -12.98 -10.00 -3.00
Kings -17.37 -13.66 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 08 29 – 23 15.30 TRUE
2 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 08 19 – 20 -15.10 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Apr 08 46 – 19 17.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares Apr 09 40 – 22 18.30 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 09 28 – 27 -13.10 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 09 9 – 24 4.30 FALSE
7 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 09 6 – 38 -10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Apr 15 Crusaders 20.80
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Apr 15 Hurricanes -6.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Apr 15 Cheetahs 7.80
4 Blues vs. Sharks Apr 16 Blues 0.90
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 16 Waratahs 2.30
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 16 Bulls 12.40
7 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 16 Lions 1.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 11.97 10.29 1.70
Broncos 9.31 9.81 -0.50
Roosters 3.73 11.20 -7.50
Bulldogs 2.93 1.50 1.40
Storm 2.10 4.41 -2.30
Sharks 1.20 -1.06 2.30
Rabbitohs 1.06 -1.20 2.30
Eels 0.10 -4.62 4.70
Sea Eagles 0.08 0.36 -0.30
Panthers -1.29 -3.06 1.80
Raiders -1.73 -0.55 -1.20
Dragons -3.51 -0.10 -3.40
Titans -4.93 -8.39 3.50
Wests Tigers -5.25 -4.06 -1.20
Warriors -5.74 -7.47 1.70
Knights -8.36 -5.41 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Apr 07 26 – 0 14.10 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 08 10 – 17 1.60 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 09 36 – 6 0.90 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 18 – 34 0.50 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 09 18 – 23 -11.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Titans Apr 10 25 – 20 9.90 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 18 – 16 -0.50 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 11 12 – 18 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 14 Sea Eagles 3.00
2 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Apr 15 Cowboys 13.90
3 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 16 Titans 1.60
4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Apr 16 Bulldogs 12.70
5 Broncos vs. Knights Apr 16 Broncos 20.70
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 17 Raiders 0.10
7 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 17 Storm -4.40
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 18 Roosters 8.00

 

April 6, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.97 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 7.10 6.80 0.30
Chiefs 7.07 2.68 4.40
Hurricanes 5.64 7.26 -1.60
Brumbies 3.47 3.15 0.30
Waratahs 2.30 4.88 -2.60
Stormers 1.48 -0.62 2.10
Sharks 0.10 -1.64 1.70
Lions -0.74 -1.80 1.10
Bulls -2.00 -0.74 -1.30
Blues -4.72 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -5.31 -6.33 1.00
Jaguares -8.69 -10.00 1.30
Cheetahs -9.21 -9.27 0.10
Reds -10.01 -9.81 -0.20
Force -10.16 -8.43 -1.70
Sunwolves -12.43 -10.00 -2.40
Kings -16.08 -13.66 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Force Apr 01 32 – 20 22.50 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 37 – 43 -5.70 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 02 24 – 16 8.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Apr 02 23 – 48 3.90 FALSE
5 Kings vs. Sunwolves Apr 02 33 – 28 -0.30 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 02 23 – 18 11.50 TRUE
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 03 17 – 21 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 08 Chiefs 15.30
2 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 08 Crusaders -15.10
3 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Apr 08 Stormers 17.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares Apr 09 Hurricanes 18.30
5 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 09 Highlanders -13.10
6 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 09 Sharks 4.30
7 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 09 Bulls -10.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.42 10.29 2.10
Broncos 8.47 9.81 -1.30
Roosters 3.11 11.20 -8.10
Storm 2.78 4.41 -1.60
Bulldogs 2.25 1.50 0.80
Rabbitohs 1.67 -1.20 2.90
Sharks 1.59 -1.06 2.60
Raiders 0.23 -0.55 0.80
Sea Eagles -1.06 0.36 -1.40
Panthers -1.74 -3.06 1.30
Eels -1.87 -4.62 2.80
Dragons -2.67 -0.10 -2.60
Warriors -4.59 -7.47 2.90
Wests Tigers -5.05 -4.06 -1.00
Titans -5.32 -8.39 3.10
Knights -8.56 -5.41 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 31 12 – 16 1.10 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 01 16 – 24 -11.30 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Knights Apr 02 18 – 14 16.00 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 02 26 – 34 -2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons Apr 02 36 – 0 15.20 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 03 28 – 32 14.20 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 03 18 – 20 3.80 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Apr 04 8 – 22 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Apr 07 Broncos 14.10
2 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 08 Rabbitohs 1.60
3 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 09 Eels 0.90
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 Warriors 0.50
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 09 Cowboys -11.20
6 Sharks vs. Titans Apr 10 Sharks 9.90
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 Wests Tigers -0.50
8 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 11 Storm 3.50

 

March 30, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.95 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 7.73 6.80 0.90
Hurricanes 5.64 7.26 -1.60
Chiefs 5.34 2.68 2.70
Brumbies 5.21 3.15 2.10
Waratahs 3.34 4.88 -1.50
Stormers 1.48 -0.62 2.10
Sharks 0.10 -1.64 1.70
Lions -0.72 -1.80 1.10
Bulls -1.61 -0.74 -0.90
Blues -4.72 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -6.35 -6.33 -0.00
Jaguares -8.69 -10.00 1.30
Cheetahs -9.60 -9.27 -0.30
Reds -10.01 -9.81 -0.20
Force -10.79 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -12.12 -10.00 -2.10
Kings -16.40 -13.66 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 25 42 – 20 26.60 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Force Mar 26 53 – 10 17.00 TRUE
3 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 26 3 – 27 -8.20 TRUE
4 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Mar 26 27 – 30 -7.00 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Brumbies Mar 26 18 – 25 -11.30 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Crusaders Mar 26 14 – 19 -4.80 TRUE
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Mar 26 8 – 13 -6.30 TRUE
8 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 27 13 – 15 -10.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Force Apr 01 Highlanders 22.50
2 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 Crusaders -5.70
3 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 02 Blues 8.00
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Apr 02 Brumbies 3.90
5 Kings vs. Sunwolves Apr 02 Sunwolves -0.30
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 02 Bulls 11.50
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 03 Waratahs 13.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 11.00 10.29 0.70
Broncos 8.74 9.81 -1.10
Roosters 4.37 11.20 -6.80
Bulldogs 3.76 1.50 2.30
Storm 3.63 4.41 -0.80
Rabbitohs 1.27 -1.20 2.50
Sharks 1.17 -1.06 2.20
Sea Eagles -0.65 0.36 -1.00
Dragons -1.25 -0.10 -1.20
Raiders -1.28 -0.55 -0.70
Eels -1.40 -4.62 3.20
Panthers -2.21 -3.06 0.80
Wests Tigers -4.64 -4.06 -0.60
Titans -5.59 -8.39 2.80
Warriors -5.85 -7.47 1.60
Knights -9.41 -5.41 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 25 12 – 42 5.20 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 25 21 – 20 0.70 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 20 – 24 9.20 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 26 20 – 22 9.70 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 27 14 – 12 4.30 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 28 40 – 18 5.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Mar 28 0 – 8 1.10 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Storm Mar 28 14 – 6 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 31 Sea Eagles 1.10
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 01 Broncos -11.30
3 Storm vs. Knights Apr 02 Storm 16.00
4 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 02 Sharks -2.80
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons Apr 02 Cowboys 15.20
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 03 Roosters 14.20
7 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 03 Eels 3.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Apr 04 Bulldogs 8.00