There’s a Twitter account, @FifNdhs, that has five tweets, posted well before today’s game
- Prove FIFA is corrupt
- Tomorrow’s scoreline will be Germany win 1-0
- Germany will win at ET
- Gotze will score
- There will be a goal in the second half of ET
What’s the chance of getting these four predictions right, if the game isn’t rigged?
Pretty good, actually. None of these events is improbable on its own, and Twitter lets you delete tweets and delete accounts. If you set up several accounts, posted a few dozen tweets on each, describing plausible events, and then deleted the unsuccessful ones, you could easily come up with an implausible-sounding remainder.
Twitter can prove you made a prediction, but it can’t prove you didn’t also make a different one, so it’s only good evidence of a prediction if either the predictions were widely retweeted before they happened, or the event described in a single tweet is massively improbable.
If @FifNdhs had predicted a 7-1 victory for Germany over Brazil in the semifinal, that would have been worth paying attention to. Gotze scoring, not so much.