Updated now to give correct teams for the game on Saturday. Thanks to email@example.com for pointing out my mistake.
Team Ratings for Finals Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 196 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs||Sep 12||24 – 40||-6.30||TRUE|
|2||Roosters vs. Panthers||Sep 13||18 – 19||12.70||FALSE|
|3||Cowboys vs. Broncos||Sep 13||32 – 20||9.00||TRUE|
|4||Storm vs. Bulldogs||Sep 14||4 – 24||14.90||FALSE|
Predictions for Finals Week 2
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Roosters vs. Cowboys||Sep 19||Roosters||5.70|
|2||Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs||Sep 20||Sea Eagles||3.20|