Posts filed under General (738)

September 2, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.92 9.09 2.80
Broncos 10.03 4.03 6.00
Cowboys 6.63 9.52 -2.90
Storm 4.13 4.36 -0.20
Bulldogs 3.68 0.21 3.50
Rabbitohs 1.96 13.06 -11.10
Sea Eagles 0.13 2.68 -2.50
Dragons 0.00 -1.74 1.70
Sharks -0.38 -10.76 10.40
Raiders -1.40 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -3.79 3.69 -7.50
Knights -4.46 -0.28 -4.20
Eels -4.80 -7.19 2.40
Wests Tigers -5.65 -13.13 7.50
Warriors -8.32 3.07 -11.40
Titans -8.35 -8.20 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 27 12 – 47 -0.40 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 28 10 – 46 -4.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 29 28 – 35 -0.50 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 18 – 20 -5.70 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Cowboys Aug 29 14 – 6 -0.80 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 30 50 – 16 2.40 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Aug 30 28 – 26 -6.60 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 31 34 – 18 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 03 Broncos 8.90
2 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 Roosters 13.00
3 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 05 Panthers 3.70
4 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 05 Dragons 8.60
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Sep 05 Cowboys 18.00
6 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 06 Raiders -0.40
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Sharks 2.50
8 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Sep 06 Bulldogs 16.00

 

August 30, 2015

Briefly

  • “If you get the software a little bit wrong, you will break the law thousands of times” A different sort of big data story from Matt Levine
  • The number of ‘moderate’ voters is seriously overestimated, from Vox
  • You can do randomised controlled trials of natural products, as in the trial of kānuka honey for acne, covered by Jamie Morton at the Herald.  The trial doesn’t show the product is better than ordinary honey or that it’s better than other acne treatments, but it does show it’s better than just soap and water.
August 26, 2015

The death of the novel?

So, the Guardian has a list of the top-100 best ever novels written in English.  There’s the usual problem that lit people have with genre (can it really be true that The Moonstone is the best detective novel in English?), but I’m not an expert in novels.

There have been complaints about the diversity of the list, and that’s where there’s a definite statistical anomaly. The books are old. For example, 33 of them come from before the start of the twentieth century and none of them from after the end of the twentieth century, even though many more novels were published in the latter period.

An article in Seed magazine, and its technical notes tried to estimate the number of new book authors each year over time. That’s not quite the same thing, since we aren’t considering only first books and are considering only novels. However, it’s a reasonable surrogate. Using their estimates, as many books were published before 1930 (55 places on the list) as after 2000 (no places on the list).  Here’s a graph, with the dots indicating books on the list and the lines indicating total published.

arthurs

As I said, this isn’t my field. Maybe nineteenth century novels really were hundreds of times more likely to be ‘great’ than modern novels. But it’s not the only possible explanation.

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.60 4.93 -0.30
Lions 4.27 3.04 1.20
Sharks 2.36 3.43 -1.10
Blue Bulls 1.71 0.17 1.50
Cheetahs -1.81 -1.75 -0.10
Pumas -6.17 -6.47 0.30
Griquas -8.95 -7.81 -1.10
Kings -9.90 -9.44 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Pumas Aug 21 13 – 15 -0.00 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 9 – 31 -2.70 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 16 – 31 2.40 FALSE
4 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 22 47 – 29 -0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 28 Lions -6.90
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 28 Western Province -2.90
3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 29 Blue Bulls -7.20
4 Kings vs. Sharks Aug 29 Sharks -8.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.80 9.09 0.70
Broncos 7.71 4.03 3.70
Cowboys 7.26 9.52 -2.30
Rabbitohs 4.27 13.06 -8.80
Bulldogs 3.96 0.21 3.80
Storm 3.50 4.36 -0.90
Sea Eagles 2.25 2.68 -0.40
Dragons 0.62 -1.74 2.40
Sharks -0.86 -10.76 9.90
Raiders -2.27 -7.09 4.80
Panthers -2.92 3.69 -6.60
Eels -4.32 -7.19 2.90
Knights -4.74 -0.28 -4.50
Warriors -6.20 3.07 -9.30
Wests Tigers -7.77 -13.13 5.40
Titans -8.96 -8.20 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 20 19 – 12 6.40 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 21 18 – 32 6.10 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Aug 22 40 – 18 7.90 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Aug 22 16 – 50 -5.60 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 22 12 – 10 5.60 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 23 28 – 12 -6.80 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 23 16 – 20 11.80 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 24 6 – 20 15.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 27 Broncos -0.40
2 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 28 Roosters -4.60
3 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 29 Sharks -0.50
4 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 Bulldogs -5.70
5 Storm vs. Cowboys Aug 29 Cowboys -0.80
6 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 30 Wests Tigers 2.40
7 Titans vs. Dragons Aug 30 Dragons -6.60
8 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 31 Raiders 3.60

 

August 23, 2015

Briefly

  • I can’t resist mentioning a pointless number puzzle originating in New York. How does this sequence continue: 50, 42, 34, 23, 14,…
  • Big Data: from Jennifer Gardy, a Canadian genomic epidemiologist, on Twitter. This is 5000TB, ie, about 5 million gigabytes, of genetic sequence data CMtfy0YWIAE4PAQ
  • From Upshot at the New York Times again, How to Know Whether to Believe a Health Study. StatsChat readers will be familiar with most of this.
  • Another problem with errors in automatic classifications, for apps that purport to recognise bird songs
    If it tells you a nuthatch’s call is in fact a great tit (a bird which, by the way, is thought to have over 40 different types of call), you’ll take that mistake away with you and carry on misdiagnosing nuthatches.
    (On the other hand, I completely disagree with the argument that recognising bird songs should take work, dammit)
  • Nathan Yau, at Flowing Data, is recreating the Statistical Atlas of the United States, using modern data and the 1870-style graphics.
August 19, 2015

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 12.79 12.86 -0.10
Canterbury 11.10 10.90 0.20
Counties Manukau 6.75 7.86 -1.10
Taranaki 5.78 7.70 -1.90
Auckland 4.50 5.14 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay 1.41 -0.57 2.00
Manawatu -0.41 -1.52 1.10
Wellington -2.70 -4.62 1.90
Otago -5.04 -4.84 -0.20
Southland -5.37 -6.01 0.60
Northland -5.61 -3.64 -2.00
Waikato -6.88 -6.96 0.10
Bay of Plenty -9.39 -9.77 0.40
North Harbour -10.92 -10.54 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.


Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 13 23 – 23 -7.20 FALSE
2 Waikato vs. Tasman Aug 14 20 – 35 -15.80 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 14 20 – 11 4.80 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Wellington Aug 15 14 – 19 16.30 FALSE
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Aug 15 24 – 38 -11.70 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Aug 16 36 – 35 13.40 TRUE
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 16 39 – 10 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Wellington Aug 20 Wellington -4.20
2 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 Tasman 26.20
3 Manawatu vs. Waikato Aug 22 Manawatu 10.50
4 Northland vs. Southland Aug 22 Northland 3.80
5 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay -2.40
6 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 23 Auckland 2.70
7 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 Canterbury 8.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.08 9.09 1.00
Broncos 7.44 4.03 3.40
Rabbitohs 5.66 13.06 -7.40
Storm 5.48 4.36 1.10
Cowboys 5.34 9.52 -4.20
Sea Eagles 3.34 2.68 0.70
Bulldogs 2.58 0.21 2.40
Dragons 0.57 -1.74 2.30
Raiders -0.71 -7.09 6.40
Sharks -1.84 -10.76 8.90
Panthers -2.87 3.69 -6.60
Warriors -4.28 3.07 -7.40
Eels -5.42 -7.19 1.80
Knights -6.71 -0.28 -6.40
Wests Tigers -6.79 -13.13 6.30
Titans -10.53 -8.20 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 18 – 31 5.20 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 14 32 – 6 7.30 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 15 18 – 24 4.40 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Warriors Aug 15 24 – 10 4.00 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 15 28 – 18 19.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 16 36 – 26 -2.90 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 16 36 – 14 15.10 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Storm Aug 17 2 – 30 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 20 Dragons 6.40
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 21 Rabbitohs 6.10
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Aug 22 Sharks 7.90
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Aug 22 Cowboys -5.60
5 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 22 Roosters 5.60
6 Titans vs. Raiders Aug 23 Raiders -6.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 23 Sea Eagles 11.80
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 24 Storm 15.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.04 4.93 0.10
Lions 3.84 3.04 0.80
Sharks 2.79 3.43 -0.60
Blue Bulls 1.27 0.17 1.10
Cheetahs -2.27 -1.75 -0.50
Pumas -6.27 -6.47 0.20
Griquas -8.49 -7.81 -0.70
Kings -9.80 -9.44 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 14 44 – 27 13.20 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 14 36 – 12 12.60 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 15 9 – 3 11.30 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Kings Aug 15 33 – 25 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Pumas Aug 21 Pumas -0.00
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 Cheetahs -2.70
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 Sharks 2.40
4 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 22 Western Province -0.30

 

World Statistics Day – October 20, 2015

What are you doing on October 20? Statisticians all over the world will be showcasing the value of their work under the theme ‘Better data, better lives’. Quite. Here is the logo for this year, downloadable from the UNStats site here.

WSD_Logo_Final_Languages_Outline

 

The World Statistics Day was proclaimed by the United Nations General Assembly in 2010 – so, fairly recently – to recognise the importance of statistics in shaping our societies. National and regional statistical days already existed in more than 100 countries, but the General Assembly’s adoption of this international day as 20 October brought extra momentum. That first World Statistics Day in October 2010 was marked in more than 130 countries and areas.

According to UNStats, this year marks an important cornerstone for official statistics, with the conclusion of the Millennium Development Goals (see how countries have fared here), the post-2015 development agenda, the data revolution (see what the Data Revolution Group set up by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has to say here), the preparations for the 2020 World Population and Housing Census Programme and the likes.

Statschat hasn’t heard a lot about what might be happening in New Zealand and elsewhere – it might yet be a bit too early for announcements – but if you are running an event or know of one, please let us know. In the meantime, one cute initiative of UNStats is to translate the English logo into many of the languages of the world. We couldn’t miss the opportunity to have UNStats do ours in the first language of this country, te reo Māori. Te tino kē hoki o te moko nā! (Nice logo!)

 

WorldStatsDay_Logo_Maori-01