Team Ratings for the Grand Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 200 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Sharks vs. Cowboys||Sep 23||32 – 20||-0.90||FALSE|
|2||Storm vs. Raiders||Sep 24||14 – 12||2.40||TRUE|
Predictions for the Grand Final
Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Note that because that is how it appears in the official fixture list, I have listed the Storm as the first team here which is normally the home team. I have treated the venue as neutral. If the Sharks are considered to have home ground advantage, the expected margin drops to 0.70, still a win to the Storm, but close to even money.
|1||Storm vs. Sharks||Oct 02||Storm||3.70|