Posts filed under General (893)

April 27, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.46 9.84 -0.40
Chiefs 6.79 2.68 4.10
Hurricanes 6.42 7.26 -0.80
Highlanders 5.50 6.80 -1.30
Waratahs 3.51 4.88 -1.40
Brumbies 2.41 3.15 -0.70
Lions 1.95 -1.80 3.80
Stormers 1.88 -0.62 2.50
Bulls -0.32 -0.74 0.40
Sharks -0.56 -1.64 1.10
Blues -3.92 -5.51 1.60
Rebels -5.24 -6.33 1.10
Cheetahs -6.33 -9.27 2.90
Jaguares -9.20 -10.00 0.80
Reds -9.72 -9.81 0.10
Force -11.01 -8.43 -2.60
Sunwolves -16.26 -10.00 -6.30
Kings -18.59 -13.66 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Apr 22 14 – 15 11.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Apr 22 36 – 14 2.80 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Jaguares Apr 23 36 – 28 -4.60 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 23 27 – 28 3.70 FALSE
5 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 23 13 – 49 -7.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Reds Apr 23 40 – 22 15.30 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Lions Apr 23 10 – 45 -14.60 TRUE
8 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 24 14 – 40 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 29 Chiefs 11.40
2 Force vs. Bulls Apr 29 Bulls -6.70
3 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 30 Highlanders 7.10
4 Blues vs. Rebels Apr 30 Blues 5.30
5 Reds vs. Cheetahs Apr 30 Reds 0.60
6 Lions vs. Hurricanes Apr 30 Hurricanes -0.50
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 30 Stormers 2.40
8 Jaguares vs. Kings Apr 30 Jaguares 13.40

 

April 24, 2016

On numbers meaning something

From a 2014 interview of Randall Munroe (XKCD) at 538,

We’re always seeing things like, “This canal project will require 1.15 million tons of concrete.” It’s presented as if it should mean something to us, as if numbers are inherently informative. So we feel like if we don’t understand it, it’s our fault.

[…]

 …Or is this just easy, space-filling trivia? A good rule of thumb might be, “If I added a zero to this number, would the sentence containing it mean something different to me?” If the answer is “no,” maybe the number has no business being in the sentence in the first place.

via Jenny Bryan

Briefly

  • An example of bad forms design. 73% of members of the “American Indepedent Party” in California didn’t realise they were members of a party. They won’t be able to vote in the Democratic primary, though unaffiliated voters will be able to.  This ‘73%’ is also an example of the denominator mattering: the errors are estimated at 73% of AIP members but only 12% of independents
  • Herald (Daily Mail) headline “Meditation can knock 7 years off age of your brain”. Text: “those who meditate may lead healthier lifestyles in general. It is also possible that some inherent difference in brain structure makes some people more likely to take up meditating. Those studied had practised various types of traditional meditation for an average of 20 years.
  • Amazon has been distinctive for making the same prices available to rich and poor Americans. But the same-day free delivery service is becoming an exception. Bloomberg looks at why (with graphics) (via Harkanwal Singh)
  • Maps of electorate-level odds for the Australian election, with an interesting attempt to solve the problem of a continent made up mostly of empty space
  • A data proofreading app designed for data journalists (via Kristin Henry)
April 20, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.89 9.84 -1.90
Hurricanes 6.70 7.26 -0.60
Chiefs 6.51 2.68 3.80
Highlanders 6.25 6.80 -0.50
Brumbies 3.97 3.15 0.80
Waratahs 1.80 4.88 -3.10
Stormers 1.72 -0.62 2.30
Lions 0.73 -1.80 2.50
Bulls -0.32 -0.74 0.40
Sharks -1.31 -1.64 0.30
Blues -3.92 -5.51 1.60
Cheetahs -5.17 -9.27 4.10
Rebels -6.40 -6.33 -0.10
Jaguares -8.44 -10.00 1.60
Force -9.31 -8.43 -0.90
Reds -9.56 -9.81 0.30
Sunwolves -17.01 -10.00 -7.00
Kings -17.37 -13.66 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Apr 15 32 – 15 20.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Apr 15 13 – 38 -6.90 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Apr 15 92 – 17 7.80 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Sharks Apr 16 23 – 18 0.90 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 16 20 – 26 2.30 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 16 41 – 22 12.40 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 16 29 – 22 1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Apr 22 Highlanders 11.60
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Apr 22 Rebels 2.80
3 Sunwolves vs. Jaguares Apr 23 Jaguares -4.60
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 23 Hurricanes 3.70
5 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 23 Waratahs -7.60
6 Stormers vs. Reds Apr 23 Stormers 15.30
7 Kings vs. Lions Apr 23 Lions -14.60
8 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 24 Brumbies 0.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.83 10.29 2.50
Broncos 11.48 9.81 1.70
Roosters 2.88 11.20 -8.30
Sharks 2.84 -1.06 3.90
Storm 1.83 4.41 -2.60
Bulldogs 1.77 1.50 0.30
Eels 1.15 -4.62 5.80
Rabbitohs 0.21 -1.20 1.40
Panthers -0.44 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.96 0.36 -1.30
Dragons -3.03 -0.10 -2.90
Raiders -3.37 -0.55 -2.80
Warriors -4.58 -7.47 2.90
Wests Tigers -4.99 -4.06 -0.90
Titans -5.41 -8.39 3.00
Knights -10.53 -5.41 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 14 10 – 22 3.00 FALSE
2 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Apr 15 44 – 18 13.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 16 14 – 19 1.60 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Apr 16 20 – 24 12.70 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Knights Apr 16 53 – 0 20.70 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 17 16 – 40 0.10 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 17 18 – 19 -4.40 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 18 16 – 20 8.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 22 Broncos 14.30
2 Bulldogs vs. Titans Apr 23 Bulldogs 10.20
3 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Apr 23 Raiders 4.60
4 Cowboys vs. Eels Apr 23 Cowboys 14.70
5 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 24 Sharks 6.30
6 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 Sea Eagles -6.60
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 Roosters -5.90
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 10.40

 

April 17, 2016

Briefly

  • “Statistical bullshit: how politicians poisoned statistics”, by Tim Harford in the Financial Times. An important piece to read, but it’s also worth bearing in mind Daniel Davies’s response on Twitter: “it wasn’t politicians that gave us the replicability crisis…”
  • Graphics: every attempted scoring shot Kobe Bryant made during his career.  Some features (like the three-point line) are obvious, more would probably be clear to basketball fans.  It still misses out a bit on the ‘compared to what?’ scale. How did Kobe’s shots compare to other players’, for example?
  • The dark side of comments. The Guardian analysed the 70 million comments on their website: results not surprising, but depressing.

Although the majority of our regular opinion writers are white men, we found that those who experienced the highest levels of abuse and dismissive trolling were not. The 10 regular writers who got the most abuse were eight women (four white and four non-white) and two black men. Two of the women and one of the men were gay. And of the eight women in the “top 10”, one was Muslim and one Jewish.

And the 10 regular writers who got the least abuse? All men

  • At Slate: maps of cholera: “at CDC headquarters today, five-and-a-half years into the epidemic, they are proudly displaying two historic maps that have everything to do with each other, but they are not telling you why” 
  • From 538: when people in the US file their taxes.
    casselman-taxday-v2
April 13, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.12 9.84 -1.70
Chiefs 6.51 2.68 3.80
Highlanders 6.25 6.80 -0.50
Hurricanes 5.62 7.26 -1.60
Brumbies 3.47 3.15 0.30
Waratahs 2.30 4.88 -2.60
Stormers 2.02 -0.62 2.60
Lions 0.42 -1.80 2.20
Bulls -0.72 -0.74 0.00
Sharks -1.06 -1.64 0.60
Blues -4.16 -5.51 1.30
Rebels -5.31 -6.33 1.00
Jaguares -8.67 -10.00 1.30
Reds -9.17 -9.81 0.60
Cheetahs -9.21 -9.27 0.10
Force -9.31 -8.43 -0.90
Sunwolves -12.98 -10.00 -3.00
Kings -17.37 -13.66 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 08 29 – 23 15.30 TRUE
2 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 08 19 – 20 -15.10 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Apr 08 46 – 19 17.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares Apr 09 40 – 22 18.30 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 09 28 – 27 -13.10 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 09 9 – 24 4.30 FALSE
7 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 09 6 – 38 -10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Apr 15 Crusaders 20.80
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Apr 15 Hurricanes -6.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Sunwolves Apr 15 Cheetahs 7.80
4 Blues vs. Sharks Apr 16 Blues 0.90
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Apr 16 Waratahs 2.30
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 16 Bulls 12.40
7 Lions vs. Stormers Apr 16 Lions 1.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 11.97 10.29 1.70
Broncos 9.31 9.81 -0.50
Roosters 3.73 11.20 -7.50
Bulldogs 2.93 1.50 1.40
Storm 2.10 4.41 -2.30
Sharks 1.20 -1.06 2.30
Rabbitohs 1.06 -1.20 2.30
Eels 0.10 -4.62 4.70
Sea Eagles 0.08 0.36 -0.30
Panthers -1.29 -3.06 1.80
Raiders -1.73 -0.55 -1.20
Dragons -3.51 -0.10 -3.40
Titans -4.93 -8.39 3.50
Wests Tigers -5.25 -4.06 -1.20
Warriors -5.74 -7.47 1.70
Knights -8.36 -5.41 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Apr 07 26 – 0 14.10 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 08 10 – 17 1.60 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 09 36 – 6 0.90 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 09 18 – 34 0.50 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 09 18 – 23 -11.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Titans Apr 10 25 – 20 9.90 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 18 – 16 -0.50 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 11 12 – 18 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Apr 14 Sea Eagles 3.00
2 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs Apr 15 Cowboys 13.90
3 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 16 Titans 1.60
4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Apr 16 Bulldogs 12.70
5 Broncos vs. Knights Apr 16 Broncos 20.70
6 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 17 Raiders 0.10
7 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Apr 17 Storm -4.40
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 18 Roosters 8.00

 

April 8, 2016

Briefly

  • A lottery in the US rigged by subverting the random number generator.  That’s harder to do with the complicated balls-from-a-machine we use — and it’s also more obvious when drawing balls from a machine that betting systems based on sophisticated numerical sequences won’t work.
  • The (US) Transport Security Administration has a ‘fast lane’ for more-trusted travellers, who get chosen for screening randomly. They use a randomizer app to make sure it really is random, which is a good idea — people are very bad at random choices. But perhaps it shouldn’t have cost $50k.
  • The Panama Papers are an example of the importance of data skills to journalists.
  • University of Otago research on microRNA may help with Alzheimer’s Disease diagnosis, which is interesting and potentially very useful, but there have been a lot of ‘potential tests’ recently. Also the research is unpublished and they aren’t disclosing yet which microRNAs are involved, so perhaps the publicity could have waited.
April 6, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.97 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 7.10 6.80 0.30
Chiefs 7.07 2.68 4.40
Hurricanes 5.64 7.26 -1.60
Brumbies 3.47 3.15 0.30
Waratahs 2.30 4.88 -2.60
Stormers 1.48 -0.62 2.10
Sharks 0.10 -1.64 1.70
Lions -0.74 -1.80 1.10
Bulls -2.00 -0.74 -1.30
Blues -4.72 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -5.31 -6.33 1.00
Jaguares -8.69 -10.00 1.30
Cheetahs -9.21 -9.27 0.10
Reds -10.01 -9.81 -0.20
Force -10.16 -8.43 -1.70
Sunwolves -12.43 -10.00 -2.40
Kings -16.08 -13.66 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Force Apr 01 32 – 20 22.50 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 01 37 – 43 -5.70 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Jaguares Apr 02 24 – 16 8.00 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Apr 02 23 – 48 3.90 FALSE
5 Kings vs. Sunwolves Apr 02 33 – 28 -0.30 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 02 23 – 18 11.50 TRUE
7 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 03 17 – 21 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 08 Chiefs 15.30
2 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 08 Crusaders -15.10
3 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Apr 08 Stormers 17.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares Apr 09 Hurricanes 18.30
5 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 09 Highlanders -13.10
6 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 09 Sharks 4.30
7 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 09 Bulls -10.60