Posts filed under General (991)

August 24, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.56 4.41 5.10
Cowboys 8.27 10.29 -2.00
Raiders 7.56 -0.55 8.10
Panthers 4.33 -3.06 7.40
Sharks 3.49 -1.06 4.50
Broncos 3.04 9.81 -6.80
Bulldogs 1.79 1.50 0.30
Roosters 1.52 11.20 -9.70
Titans -0.51 -8.39 7.90
Sea Eagles -0.74 0.36 -1.10
Wests Tigers -2.76 -4.06 1.30
Eels -2.91 -4.62 1.70
Warriors -3.58 -7.47 3.90
Rabbitohs -4.14 -1.20 -2.90
Dragons -6.10 -0.10 -6.00
Knights -17.16 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 18 20 – 10 3.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 40 – 10 6.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Titans Aug 20 6 – 26 -12.60 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 20 18 – 38 -5.20 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 20 34 – 6 13.90 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels Aug 21 28 – 18 14.10 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 21 42 – 6 6.70 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 22 12 – 6 -6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -3.50
2 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 26 Storm 9.50
3 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Aug 27 Raiders -5.30
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 27 Panthers -1.80
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 27 Sharks 5.00
6 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Aug 28 Warriors 3.20
7 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 Rabbitohs -10.00
8 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 29 Eels 6.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.96 12.85 3.10
Auckland 8.23 11.34 -3.10
Taranaki 8.09 8.25 -0.20
Tasman 7.62 8.71 -1.10
Wellington 5.36 4.32 1.00
Otago 2.04 0.54 1.50
Counties Manukau 1.59 2.45 -0.90
Hawke’s Bay 0.81 1.85 -1.00
Waikato -3.23 -4.31 1.10
Bay of Plenty -5.38 -5.54 0.20
Manawatu -6.86 -6.71 -0.10
North Harbour -7.29 -8.15 0.90
Southland -11.22 -9.71 -1.50
Northland -19.22 -19.37 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 20 – 17 -6.60 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 19 27 – 34 -8.70 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 20 22 – 30 -9.80 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 20 26 – 36 1.50 FALSE
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 20 43 – 3 5.50 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 17 – 40 -6.20 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Waikato Aug 21 24 – 19 17.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 25 Otago 0.70
2 Manawatu vs. Southland Aug 26 Manawatu 8.40
3 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 Auckland 31.50
4 Waikato vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Waikato 8.10
5 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 Taranaki 11.30
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 28 Canterbury 12.30
7 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 Counties Manukau 11.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

PredictGames4.html

 

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.40 9.69 -0.30
Western Province 4.40 6.46 -2.10
Sharks 1.50 -0.60 2.10
Blue Bulls 0.97 1.80 -0.80
Cheetahs 0.13 -3.42 3.50
Pumas -10.40 -8.62 -1.80
Cavaliers -11.08 -10.00 -1.10
Griquas -11.68 -12.45 0.80
Kings -14.68 -14.29 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 25 – 32 9.70 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 19 30 – 24 -20.30 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 20 49 – 35 20.40 TRUE
4 Cavaliers vs. Sharks Aug 20 20 – 41 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Western Province Aug 26 Western Province -15.60
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 26 Pumas 4.80
3 Lions vs. Cavaliers Aug 27 Lions 24.00
4 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 27 Sharks 4.00

 

August 23, 2016

So where did the word ‘statistics’ come from?

Yes, the book about the history of statistics has been written, in case you were wondering. A History of Statistics in New Zealand was published in 1999, with funding from the New Zealand Statistical Association and the Lotteries Commission of New Zealand. H S (Stan) Roberts edited the history, and wrote substantial sections. It’s now available for free download here – the usual caveats about attribution apply. And it opens by tracing the history and usage of the word statistics:

“Statistics”, like most words, is continually changing its meaning. In order to find the meaning of a word we tend to reach for a dictionary, but dictionaries do not so much “define” the meanings of words, but rather give their current usages, together with examples. Following are examples relating to statistics taken from the 1933 Oxford English Dictionary (13 Vols). Note that in each entry the date indicates the first usage found.

Statism: Subservience to political expediency in religious matters. 1609 – “Religion turned into Statisme will soon prooue Atheisme.”

Statist: One skilled in state affairs, one having political knowledge, power, or influence; a politician, statesman. Very common in 17th c. 1584 – “When he plais the Statist, wringing veri unlukkili some of Machiavels Avioxmes to serve his Purpos then indeed; then he tryumphes.”

Statistical: 1. Of, or pertaining to statistics, consisting or founded on collections of numerical facts, esp. with reference to economic, sanitary, and vital conditions. 1787 “The work (by Zimmerman) before us is properly statistical. It consists of different tables, containing a general comparative view of the forces, the government, the extent and population of the different kingdoms of Europe.” 2: Of a writer, etc: Dealing with statistics. 1787 – “Some respectable statistical writers.”

Statistician: One versed or engaged in collecting and tabulating statistics. 1825 – “The object of the statistician is to describe the condition of a particular country at a particular period.”

Statistics: In early use, that branch of political science, dealing with the collection, classification, and discussion of facts (especially of a numerical kind), bearing on the condition of a state or community. In recent use, the department of study that has for its object the collection and arrangement of numerical facts or data, whether relating to human affairs or to natural phenomena. 1787 – Zimmerman – “This science distinguished by the newly-coined name of Statistics, is become a favourite in Germany.”

Statistic: The earliest known occurrence of the word seems to be in the title of the satirical work “Microscopium Statisticum”, by Helenus Politanus, Frankfort (1672). Here the sense is prob. “pertaining to statists or to statecraft”.

The Concise Oxford Dictionary (1976) gives us two modern usages.

Statistics: 1. Numerical facts systematically collected 2: Science of collecting, classifying and using statistics. The first verse of a poem composed in 1799 by William Wordsworth, and entitled, “A Poet’s Epitaph”, successfully clarifies this difficult matter.

Art thou a Statist in the van
Of public conflicts trained and bred?
First learn to love one living man;
Then may’st thou think upon the dead.

 

August 20, 2016

Briefly

  • Mining data from Lending Club.  And Matt Levine’s comments: Here are 50 data points about this loan. Do what you want….. And if there’s no field for “does this person have another LendingClub loan,” and if that data point would have been helpful, well, sometimes that happens.
  • It’s just gone Saturday in the US, so it is no longer National Potato Day, and it won’t be National Spumoni Day until Sunday. Nathan Yau has a graphic of the 214 days that are National <some food> Day.
  • Because genetic association studies are (or were) largely done in people of European ancestry, they can overpredict risks in everyone else. (NY Times). (The implication that this is also true of non-genetic research is, at least, exaggerated)
August 19, 2016

Has your life improved since 1966?

From Pew Research, is life better than 50 years ago for people like you?

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The answers aren’t going to mean much about reality, more about the sort of people we are or want to think we are.  As Fred Clark puts it

If you ask those of us who are 18-53 years old for our opinions about what life was like before we either existed or have any memory, we’ll give you an answer. And that speculative, possibly even informed, opinion may mean something or other in the aggregate. Maybe it tells us something fuzzy about general optimism or pessimism. Or maybe something about the dismal state of history, social studies, civics and science education.

Or, for the people who do have memories of the mid-sixties…

Age 65-70: I peaked in high school. Go away, nerd, or I’ll give you a swirlie.

August 18, 2016

Post-truth data maps

The Herald has a story “New map compares breast sizes around the world”. They blame news.com.au as the immediate cause, but a very similar story at the Daily Mail actually links to where it got the map.  You might wonder how the data were collected (you might wonder why, too). The journalist did get as far as that:

The breast map doesn’t reveal how the cup sizes were measured, it’s fair to say tracking bra purchases per country would be an ideal – and maybe a little weird – approach.

August 17, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.53 4.41 4.10
Raiders 7.90 -0.55 8.50
Cowboys 7.28 10.29 -3.00
Sharks 4.36 -1.06 5.40
Panthers 2.75 -3.06 5.80
Broncos 2.55 9.81 -7.30
Bulldogs 2.28 1.50 0.80
Sea Eagles 0.30 0.36 -0.10
Roosters -0.46 11.20 -11.70
Titans -1.04 -8.39 7.30
Wests Tigers -1.18 -4.06 2.90
Warriors -2.59 -7.47 4.90
Eels -3.24 -4.62 1.40
Dragons -4.12 -0.10 -4.00
Rabbitohs -5.01 -1.20 -3.80
Knights -16.62 -5.41 -11.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 11 20 – 16 5.20 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 12 38 – 16 6.60 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Aug 13 18 – 19 3.60 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 13 22 – 41 10.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 13 32 – 18 -8.60 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 14 6 – 42 -13.30 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 14 22 – 10 -7.40 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Storm Aug 15 22 – 8 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 18 Broncos 3.30
2 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 Panthers 6.90
3 Knights vs. Titans Aug 20 Titans -12.60
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 20 Storm -5.20
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 20 Cowboys 13.90
6 Raiders vs. Eels Aug 21 Raiders 14.10
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Aug 21 Roosters 6.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 22 Sharks -6.40

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.85 12.85 0.00
Auckland 11.34 11.34 0.00
Tasman 8.71 8.71 0.00
Taranaki 8.25 8.25 0.00
Wellington 4.32 4.32 0.00
Counties Manukau 2.45 2.45 0.00
Hawke’s Bay 1.85 1.85 0.00
Otago 0.54 0.54 0.00
Waikato -4.31 -4.31 0.00
Bay of Plenty -5.54 -5.54 0.00
Manawatu -6.71 -6.71 0.00
North Harbour -8.15 -8.15 0.00
Southland -9.71 -9.71 0.00
Northland -19.37 -19.37 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 18 Counties Manukau -6.60
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 19 Manawatu -8.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 20 Taranaki -9.80
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 20 Hawke’s Bay 1.50
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 20 Canterbury 5.50
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 Otago -6.20
7 Tasman vs. Waikato Aug 21 Tasman 17.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.77 9.69 1.10
Western Province 5.35 6.46 -1.10
Blue Bulls 1.61 1.80 -0.20
Sharks 0.70 -0.60 1.30
Cheetahs -0.82 -3.42 2.60
Cavaliers -10.28 -10.00 -0.30
Pumas -10.40 -8.62 -1.80
Griquas -13.05 -12.45 -0.60
Kings -15.32 -14.29 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 12 68 – 26 22.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 12 46 – 24 16.10 TRUE
3 Kings vs. Cavaliers Aug 13 10 – 28 0.50 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Aug 13 43 – 20 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 Western Province 9.70
2 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 19 Lions -20.30
3 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 20 Blue Bulls 20.40
4 Cavaliers vs. Sharks Aug 20 Sharks -7.50