NRL Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
This is an update after I realised I should have not given a home ground advantage for the first-named teams for the games played in Los Angeles. I got both results wrong as a result.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 14.73 | 14.73 | -0.00 |
Broncos | 9.07 | 9.07 | 0.00 |
Storm | 6.15 | 6.15 | -0.00 |
Roosters | 3.08 | 3.08 | -0.00 |
Sharks | 2.94 | 2.94 | 0.00 |
Cowboys | 2.47 | 2.47 | 0.00 |
Knights | 1.84 | 1.84 | 0.00 |
Rabbitohs | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.00 |
Eels | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
Warriors | -0.07 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
Sea Eagles | -0.48 | -0.48 | 0.00 |
Raiders | -4.31 | -4.31 | 0.00 |
Dragons | -6.93 | -6.93 | -0.00 |
Dolphins | -7.09 | -7.09 | 0.00 |
Titans | -7.89 | -7.89 | -0.00 |
Wests Tigers | -13.15 | -13.15 | -0.00 |
Bulldogs | -13.35 | -13.35 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 03 | Rabbitohs | -1.30 |
2 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Mar 03 | Broncos | -6.00 |
3 | Knights vs. Raiders | Mar 07 | Knights | 9.20 |
4 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Mar 08 | Warriors | 4.00 |
5 | Storm vs. Panthers | Mar 08 | Panthers | -5.60 |
6 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Mar 09 | Eels | 16.50 |
7 | Titans vs. Dragons | Mar 09 | Titans | 2.00 |
8 | Dolphins vs. Cowboys | Mar 10 | Cowboys | -6.60 |