Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Chiefs vs. Brumbies||Feb 20||19 – 17||3.30||TRUE|
|2||Rebels vs. Waratahs||Feb 20||28 – 38||-12.10||TRUE|
|3||Bulls vs. Hurricanes||Feb 20||13 – 17||2.70||FALSE|
|4||Highlanders vs. Crusaders||Feb 21||20 – 26||-7.10||TRUE|
|5||Reds vs. Force||Feb 21||18 – 6||0.30||TRUE|
|6||Stormers vs. Blues||Feb 21||27 – 16||6.30||TRUE|
|7||Sharks vs. Lions||Feb 21||29 – 12||10.90||TRUE|
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Highlanders vs. Reds||Feb 27||Highlanders||8.10|
|2||Force vs. Hurricanes||Feb 27||Hurricanes||-3.40|
|3||Cheetahs vs. Blues||Feb 27||Blues||-0.50|
|4||Chiefs vs. Crusaders||Feb 28||Crusaders||-1.80|
|5||Rebels vs. Brumbies||Feb 28||Brumbies||-7.60|
|6||Bulls vs. Sharks||Feb 28||Bulls||2.20|
|7||Lions vs. Stormers||Feb 28||Stormers||-3.60|