Posts filed under Sports statistics (332)

May 25, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.23 9.84 0.40
Highlanders 7.33 6.80 0.50
Hurricanes 6.75 7.26 -0.50
Chiefs 5.60 2.68 2.90
Waratahs 4.08 4.88 -0.80
Brumbies 2.95 3.15 -0.20
Sharks 2.86 -1.64 4.50
Lions 2.72 -1.80 4.50
Stormers 0.59 -0.62 1.20
Bulls -0.87 -0.74 -0.10
Blues -5.34 -5.51 0.20
Rebels -5.87 -6.33 0.50
Cheetahs -7.27 -9.27 2.00
Jaguares -8.05 -10.00 1.90
Reds -9.34 -9.81 0.50
Force -11.03 -8.43 -2.60
Sunwolves -16.35 -10.00 -6.40
Kings -22.22 -13.66 -8.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 20 29 – 10 8.90 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 21 35 – 25 11.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels May 21 36 – 15 14.70 TRUE
4 Force vs. Blues May 21 13 – 17 -1.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Jaguares May 21 52 – 24 13.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Kings May 21 53 – 0 25.30 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Stormers May 21 17 – 13 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 27 Hurricanes 2.90
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs May 27 Waratahs 2.50
3 Kings vs. Jaguares May 27 Jaguares -10.20
4 Blues vs. Crusaders May 28 Crusaders -12.10
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 28 Brumbies 23.30
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 28 Stormers 11.40
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 28 Lions -0.10
8 Rebels vs. Force May 29 Rebels 8.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 12.27 9.81 2.50
Cowboys 11.90 10.29 1.60
Storm 7.33 4.41 2.90
Sharks 6.19 -1.06 7.20
Bulldogs 2.97 1.50 1.50
Roosters 1.29 11.20 -9.90
Raiders 1.12 -0.55 1.70
Eels 0.22 -4.62 4.80
Rabbitohs -0.34 -1.20 0.90
Panthers -0.43 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 0.36 -0.80
Dragons -3.79 -0.10 -3.70
Titans -4.16 -8.39 4.20
Warriors -7.72 -7.47 -0.30
Wests Tigers -8.95 -4.06 -4.90
Knights -15.75 -5.41 -10.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 19 34 – 24 2.40 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 20 19 – 18 2.90 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 21 20 – 12 10.10 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Raiders May 21 12 – 38 -1.50 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 21 20 – 12 10.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Titans May 22 24 – 28 8.50 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 22 32 – 20 3.50 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Storm May 23 6 – 18 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 27 Broncos 24.20
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys May 28 Cowboys -12.70
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 29 Raiders 1.10
4 Knights vs. Eels May 30 Eels -13.00

 

May 21, 2016

Advertising, health promotion, and lots of latex

The biennial Olympic condom story is out.  The Rio Olympics are planning to give away 450,000 condoms in the Olympic Village, compared to a mere 150,000 in London, and 90,000 in Sydney (initially 70,000, but they ran out).

This graph shows (with black dots) the publicised numbers for the past Olympics that I could find easily (Torino seems to be keeping quiet, for some reason)

condoms

So, why so many? Condoms are cheap to produce and hard to advertise.  Even buying retail from Amazon you can get 1000 for less than US$150, so 450,000 would cost about US$65k.  In a setting like this, I’m sure the health promotion folks are paying a lot less than that, and the international news coverage implying that Olympic athletes have safe sex is worth far more than the cost of materials.

The red dot? Oh yes. That’s the number handed out by the Health Ministry campaigners at street parties for Carnival this year in Brazil.

May 18, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.63 9.84 -0.20
Highlanders 7.33 6.80 0.50
Hurricanes 6.75 7.26 -0.50
Chiefs 5.22 2.68 2.50
Waratahs 4.69 4.88 -0.20
Brumbies 2.95 3.15 -0.20
Lions 1.82 -1.80 3.60
Sharks 1.19 -1.64 2.80
Stormers 0.72 -0.62 1.30
Bulls -1.01 -0.74 -0.30
Rebels -5.49 -6.33 0.80
Blues -5.50 -5.51 0.00
Jaguares -7.15 -10.00 2.80
Cheetahs -7.27 -9.27 2.00
Reds -9.27 -9.81 0.50
Force -10.87 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -16.42 -10.00 -6.40
Kings -20.56 -13.66 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 13 34 – 26 0.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 13 22 – 30 -4.50 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 14 29 – 14 20.70 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Bulls May 14 31 – 8 7.90 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 14 17 – 17 -14.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings May 14 34 – 20 17.20 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Blues May 14 43 – 5 7.70 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 14 22 – 25 -4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 20 Crusaders 8.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 21 Reds 11.20
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels May 21 Chiefs 14.70
4 Force vs. Blues May 21 Blues -1.40
5 Lions vs. Jaguares May 21 Lions 13.00
6 Sharks vs. Kings May 21 Sharks 25.30
7 Bulls vs. Stormers May 21 Bulls 1.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 12.11 9.81 2.30
Cowboys 12.06 10.29 1.80
Storm 6.67 4.41 2.30
Sharks 6.35 -1.06 7.40
Bulldogs 2.36 1.50 0.90
Roosters 1.90 11.20 -9.30
Eels 0.88 -4.62 5.50
Panthers 0.45 -3.06 3.50
Raiders -0.55 -0.55 0.00
Sea Eagles -0.64 0.36 -1.00
Rabbitohs -0.89 -1.20 0.30
Dragons -3.24 -0.10 -3.10
Titans -5.04 -8.39 3.30
Warriors -6.04 -7.47 1.40
Wests Tigers -8.78 -4.06 -4.70
Knights -15.92 -5.41 -10.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Raiders May 12 16 – 12 -0.40 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 13 20 – 22 5.90 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Warriors May 14 30 – 18 5.60 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Cowboys May 14 15 – 14 -6.50 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 14 30 – 6 14.40 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Sharks May 15 0 – 62 -12.80 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 15 4 – 36 -7.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Roosters May 16 26 – 6 -7.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 19 Rabbitohs 2.40
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 20 Cowboys 2.90
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 21 Wests Tigers 10.10
4 Warriors vs. Raiders May 21 Raiders -1.50
5 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 21 Sharks 10.00
6 Panthers vs. Titans May 22 Panthers 8.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 22 Bulldogs 3.50
8 Eels vs. Storm May 23 Storm -2.80

 

May 11, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 12

 

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.09 9.84 0.30
Hurricanes 7.09 7.26 -0.20
Highlanders 6.86 6.80 0.10
Chiefs 5.22 2.68 2.50
Waratahs 3.78 4.88 -1.10
Brumbies 2.75 3.15 -0.40
Stormers 1.62 -0.62 2.20
Sharks 1.29 -1.64 2.90
Lions 0.00 -1.80 1.80
Bulls -0.10 -0.74 0.60
Blues -3.68 -5.51 1.80
Rebels -5.29 -6.33 1.00
Cheetahs -7.08 -9.27 2.20
Jaguares -7.24 -10.00 2.80
Reds -9.61 -9.81 0.20
Force -10.87 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -17.32 -10.00 -7.30
Kings -20.75 -13.66 -7.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 06 38 – 5 22.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 06 23 – 6 5.50 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Force May 07 22 – 40 -0.30 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 07 13 – 26 3.90 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs May 07 21 – 6 14.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Hurricanes May 07 32 – 15 -4.40 FALSE
7 Kings vs. Blues May 07 18 – 34 -12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 13 Highlanders 0.30
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 13 Brumbies -4.50
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 14 Hurricanes 20.70
4 Waratahs vs. Bulls May 14 Waratahs 7.90
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 14 Stormers -14.90
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings May 14 Cheetahs 17.20
7 Lions vs. Blues May 14 Lions 7.70
8 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 14 Sharks -4.50

 

May 4, 2016

Should you have bet on Leicester City?

As you know, Leicester City won the English Premier League this week. At the start of the season, you could get 5000:1 odds on this happening. Twelve people did.

Now, most weeks someone wins NZ Lotto first division, which pays more than 5000:1 for a winning ticket, and where we know the odds are actually unfavourable to the punter. The 5000:1 odds on their own aren’t enough to conclude the bookies had it wrong.  Lotto is different because we have good reasons to know that the probabilities are very small, based on how the numbers are drawn. With soccer, we’re relying on much weaker evidence.

Here’s Tim Gowers explaining why 5000:1 should have been obviously too extreme

The argument that we know how things work from following the game for years or even decades is convincing if all you want to prove is that it is very unlikely that a team like Leicester will win. But here we want to prove that the odds are not just low, but one-in-five-thousand low.

Professor Gowers does leave half the question unexamined, though

I’m ignoring here the well-known question of whether it is sensible to take unlikely bets just because your expected gain is positive. I’m just wondering whether the expected gain was positive.

 

Super 18 Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.46 9.84 -0.40
Hurricanes 8.37 7.26 1.10
Chiefs 6.23 2.68 3.60
Highlanders 5.85 6.80 -0.90
Waratahs 3.77 4.88 -1.10
Brumbies 2.05 3.15 -1.10
Stormers 1.62 -0.62 2.20
Bulls 0.59 -0.74 1.30
Sharks 0.00 -1.64 1.60
Lions 0.00 -1.80 1.80
Blues -3.88 -5.51 1.60
Rebels -5.29 -6.33 1.00
Cheetahs -7.07 -9.27 2.20
Jaguares -7.24 -10.00 2.80
Reds -8.98 -9.81 0.80
Force -11.93 -8.43 -3.50
Sunwolves -16.26 -10.00 -6.30
Kings -20.55 -13.66 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 29 24 – 22 11.40 TRUE
2 Force vs. Bulls Apr 29 20 – 42 -6.70 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 30 23 – 10 7.10 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Rebels Apr 30 36 – 30 5.30 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Cheetahs Apr 30 30 – 17 0.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Hurricanes Apr 30 17 – 50 -0.50 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 30 30 – 32 2.40 FALSE
8 Jaguares vs. Kings Apr 30 73 – 27 13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 06 Crusaders 22.40
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 06 Brumbies 5.50
3 Sunwolves vs. Force May 07 Force -0.30
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 07 Chiefs 3.90
5 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs May 07 Waratahs 14.80
6 Sharks vs. Hurricanes May 07 Hurricanes -4.40
7 Kings vs. Blues May 07 Blues -12.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 12.60 10.29 2.30
Broncos 11.43 9.81 1.60
Storm 6.13 4.41 1.70
Roosters 3.78 11.20 -7.40
Sharks 3.11 -1.06 4.20
Eels 1.45 -4.62 6.10
Bulldogs 0.71 1.50 -0.80
Sea Eagles 0.05 0.36 -0.30
Panthers -0.02 -3.06 3.00
Raiders -0.20 -0.55 0.40
Rabbitohs -1.46 -1.20 -0.30
Dragons -3.59 -0.10 -3.50
Warriors -5.57 -7.47 1.90
Titans -6.92 -8.39 1.50
Wests Tigers -7.13 -4.06 -3.10
Knights -12.68 -5.41 -7.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 28 22 – 30 7.90 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 29 20 – 12 2.90 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 30 19 – 18 0.00 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Knights Apr 30 38 – 0 16.50 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Apr 30 28 – 34 -10.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Dragons May 01 26 – 10 -0.20 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Storm May 01 0 – 38 -5.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Broncos May 01 30 – 28 -6.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Raiders May 12 Raiders -0.40
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 13 Eels 5.90
3 Panthers vs. Warriors May 14 Panthers 5.60
4 Storm vs. Cowboys May 14 Cowboys -6.50
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 14 Broncos 14.40
6 Knights vs. Sharks May 15 Sharks -12.80
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 15 Bulldogs -7.80
8 Titans vs. Roosters May 16 Roosters -7.70

 

April 27, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.46 9.84 -0.40
Chiefs 6.79 2.68 4.10
Hurricanes 6.42 7.26 -0.80
Highlanders 5.50 6.80 -1.30
Waratahs 3.51 4.88 -1.40
Brumbies 2.41 3.15 -0.70
Lions 1.95 -1.80 3.80
Stormers 1.88 -0.62 2.50
Bulls -0.32 -0.74 0.40
Sharks -0.56 -1.64 1.10
Blues -3.92 -5.51 1.60
Rebels -5.24 -6.33 1.10
Cheetahs -6.33 -9.27 2.90
Jaguares -9.20 -10.00 0.80
Reds -9.72 -9.81 0.10
Force -11.01 -8.43 -2.60
Sunwolves -16.26 -10.00 -6.30
Kings -18.59 -13.66 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks Apr 22 14 – 15 11.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Apr 22 36 – 14 2.80 TRUE
3 Sunwolves vs. Jaguares Apr 23 36 – 28 -4.60 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 23 27 – 28 3.70 FALSE
5 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 23 13 – 49 -7.60 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Reds Apr 23 40 – 22 15.30 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Lions Apr 23 10 – 45 -14.60 TRUE
8 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Apr 24 14 – 40 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 29 Chiefs 11.40
2 Force vs. Bulls Apr 29 Bulls -6.70
3 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 30 Highlanders 7.10
4 Blues vs. Rebels Apr 30 Blues 5.30
5 Reds vs. Cheetahs Apr 30 Reds 0.60
6 Lions vs. Hurricanes Apr 30 Hurricanes -0.50
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 30 Stormers 2.40
8 Jaguares vs. Kings Apr 30 Jaguares 13.40