Posts filed under Sports statistics (211)

October 15, 2014

Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 6.03 0.07 6.00
Western Province 6.02 3.43 2.60
Sharks 4.36 5.09 -0.70
Blue Bulls 1.02 -0.74 1.80
Cheetahs -3.53 0.33 -3.90
Pumas -8.20 -10.00 1.80
Griquas -10.10 -7.49 -2.60
Kings -14.91 -10.00 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Pumas Oct 10 26 – 25 -2.20 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 11 47 – 7 11.30 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Oct 11 20 – 28 8.70 FALSE
4 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 11 46 – 12 13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team


Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Oct 18 Lions 6.70
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Oct 18 Western Province 10.00

 

ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the ITM Cup Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.65 18.09 -4.40
Tasman 10.97 5.78 5.20
Counties Manukau 6.58 2.40 4.20
Auckland 6.05 4.92 1.10
Taranaki 5.06 -3.89 9.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.84 2.75 -1.90
Manawatu -2.66 -10.32 7.70
Wellington -2.74 10.16 -12.90
Otago -3.98 -1.45 -2.50
Northland -4.42 -8.22 3.80
Waikato -5.74 -1.20 -4.50
Southland -6.31 -5.85 -0.50
Bay of Plenty -9.23 -5.47 -3.80
North Harbour -10.13 -9.77 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 08 41 – 18 1.40 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 29 – 12 5.70 TRUE
3 Otago vs. Manawatu Oct 10 25 – 38 5.40 FALSE
4 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 11 58 – 34 9.10 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Oct 11 20 – 20 13.20 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Northland Oct 11 38 – 10 13.60 TRUE
7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 12 23 – 26 -5.00 TRUE
8 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 16 – 21 12.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Oct 17 Hawke’s Bay 9.30
2 Manawatu vs. Southland Oct 18 Manawatu 7.70
3 Taranaki vs. Auckland Oct 18 Taranaki 3.00
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 18 Tasman 1.30

 

October 7, 2014

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 7.02 3.43 3.60
Lions 4.39 0.07 4.30
Sharks 3.35 5.09 -1.70
Blue Bulls -0.18 -0.74 0.60
Cheetahs -1.89 0.33 -2.20
Pumas -7.97 -10.00 2.00
Griquas -8.90 -7.49 -1.40
Kings -15.13 -10.00 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 03 26 – 23 4.10 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 03 6 – 37 0.80 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Oct 04 29 – 34 -3.70 TRUE
4 Griquas vs. Kings Oct 04 45 – 25 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Kings vs. Pumas Oct 10 Pumas -2.20
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 11 Lions 11.30
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Oct 11 Western Province 8.70
4 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Oct 11 Blue Bulls 13.70

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 13.83 18.09 -4.30
Tasman 12.17 5.78 6.40
Auckland 6.43 4.92 1.50
Taranaki 4.87 -3.89 8.80
Counties Manukau 3.79 2.40 1.40
Hawke’s Bay 1.86 2.75 -0.90
Otago -2.60 -1.45 -1.20
Northland -3.21 -8.22 5.00
Wellington -3.87 10.16 -14.00
Manawatu -4.03 -10.32 6.30
Waikato -6.62 -1.20 -5.40
Southland -7.33 -5.85 -1.50
Bay of Plenty -8.35 -5.47 -2.90
North Harbour -9.00 -9.77 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Oct 01 36 – 14 9.00 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Oct 02 60 – 19 13.00 TRUE
3 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 03 58 – 27 6.20 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Oct 04 10 – 24 -5.80 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 04 33 – 16 -5.00 FALSE
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 04 10 – 38 11.10 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 05 29 – 3 -5.50 FALSE
8 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 05 22 – 38 -1.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Oct 08 Counties Manukau 1.40
2 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 Waikato 5.70
3 Otago vs. Manawatu Oct 10 Otago 5.40
4 Wellington vs. North Harbour Oct 11 Wellington 9.10
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Oct 11 Hawke’s Bay 13.20
6 Auckland vs. Northland Oct 11 Auckland 13.60
7 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Oct 12 Canterbury -5.00
8 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 Tasman 12.40

 

October 1, 2014

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.81 5.82 6.00
Cowboys 9.46 6.01 3.40
Roosters 9.27 12.35 -3.10
Storm 4.47 7.64 -3.20
Broncos 3.86 -4.69 8.50
Panthers 3.49 -2.48 6.00
Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50
Sea Eagles 2.78 9.10 -6.30
Bulldogs 1.38 2.46 -1.10
Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50
Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50
Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40
Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30
Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90
Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20
Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 26 32 – 22 6.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 27 12 – 18 4.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Oct 05 Rabbitohs 10.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.92 3.43 3.50
Lions 4.30 0.07 4.20
Sharks 3.44 5.09 -1.60
Cheetahs -1.79 0.33 -2.10
Blue Bulls -1.98 -0.74 -1.20
Pumas -6.17 -10.00 3.80
Griquas -9.54 -7.49 -2.00
Kings -14.49 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Sep 26 23 – 31 7.00 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 27 8 – 46 -5.10 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 26 23 – 37 -7.20 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 27 53 – 24 22.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Kings Oct 04 Griquas 10.00
2 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Oct 04 Pumas 0.80
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Oct 04 Western Province -3.70
4 Sharks vs. Lions Oct 04 Sharks 4.10

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.54 18.09 -1.50
Tasman 9.46 5.78 3.70
Auckland 4.43 4.92 -0.50
Taranaki 3.85 -3.89 7.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.14 2.75 0.40
Counties Manukau 3.13 2.40 0.70
Otago -0.99 -1.45 0.50
Wellington -1.84 10.16 -12.00
Waikato -4.62 -1.20 -3.40
Northland -5.01 -8.22 3.20
Manawatu -6.33 -10.32 4.00
Southland -6.66 -5.85 -0.80
North Harbour -7.20 -9.77 2.60
Bay of Plenty -9.96 -5.47 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 24 29 – 24 -27.60 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 25 27 – 30 -0.50 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 26 35 – 22 1.60 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 27 20 – 22 7.20 FALSE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 27 55 – 7 2.80 TRUE
6 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 27 28 – 25 -10.40 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Otago Sep 28 32 – 24 15.70 TRUE
8 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 28 26 – 28 34.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Oct 01 Hawke’s Bay 9.00
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Oct 02 Auckland 13.00
3 Northland vs. North Harbour Oct 03 Northland 6.20
4 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Oct 04 Counties Manukau -5.80
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 04 Otago -5.00
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 04 Canterbury 11.10
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 05 Hawke’s Bay -5.50
8 Wellington vs. Taranaki Oct 05 Taranaki -1.70

 

September 24, 2014

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.42 5.82 5.60
Roosters 9.66 12.35 -2.70
Cowboys 9.46 6.01 3.40
Storm 4.47 7.64 -3.20
Panthers 4.45 -2.48 6.90
Broncos 3.86 -4.69 8.50
Warriors 2.82 -0.72 3.50
Sea Eagles 2.78 9.10 -6.30
Bulldogs 0.42 2.46 -2.00
Knights -0.28 5.23 -5.50
Dragons -2.10 -7.57 5.50
Raiders -7.64 -8.99 1.40
Eels -8.12 -18.45 10.30
Titans -8.40 1.45 -9.90
Sharks -10.92 2.32 -13.20
Wests Tigers -13.68 -11.26 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Cowboys Sep 19 31 – 30 5.70 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Sep 20 17 – 18 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 26 Rabbitohs 6.30
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Sep 27 Panthers 4.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 6.47 3.43 3.00
Sharks 2.98 5.09 -2.10
Lions 2.44 0.07 2.40
Cheetahs -0.88 0.33 -1.20
Blue Bulls -2.90 -0.74 -2.20
Pumas -5.72 -10.00 4.30
Griquas -7.69 -7.49 -0.20
Kings -14.04 -10.00 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 19 29 – 15 13.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 20 36 – 12 18.40 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 20 15 – 26 0.60 FALSE
4 Kings vs. Cheetahs Sep 20 22 – 37 -7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Sep 26 Cheetahs 7.00
2 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 27 Lions -5.10
3 Pumas vs. Western Province Sep 27 Western Province -7.20
4 Sharks vs. Kings Sep 27 Sharks 22.00

 

Revised ITM Cup Predictions for Round 7

Reviewing the ratings I noticed I have been giving Wellington a ridiculously high rating given their disastrous performance this year. I discovered a problem with my code which meant I have not been updating ratings properly. I have some different code for the ITM Cup because of the strange nature of the fixtures where teams can play more than one game a week.

Team Ratings for Round 7

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 21.23 18.09 3.10
Tasman 10.08 5.78 4.30
Auckland 5.32 4.92 0.40
Hawke’s Bay 4.02 2.75 1.30
Taranaki 2.96 -3.89 6.90
Wellington 1.25 10.16 -8.90
Counties Manukau 0.04 2.40 -2.40
Otago -1.62 -1.45 -0.20
Waikato -3.89 -1.20 -2.70
Northland -5.24 -8.22 3.00
Manawatu -7.06 -10.32 3.30
Southland -9.05 -5.85 -3.20
Bay of Plenty -9.73 -5.47 -4.30
North Harbour -10.37 -9.77 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Tasman Sep 17 14 – 38 -13.30 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Taranaki Sep 18 20 – 31 -1.40 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 19 20 – 28 -13.50 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 20 36 – 17 10.20 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 20 32 – 7 18.50 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 20 41 – 20 -0.20 FALSE
7 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 21 38 – 7 1.60 TRUE
8 Wellington vs. Tasman Sep 21 20 – 42 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 24 Canterbury -27.60
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 25 Northland -0.50
3 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 26 Taranaki 1.60
4 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sep 27 Waikato 7.20
5 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 27 Counties Manukau 2.80
6 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 27 Hawke’s Bay -10.40
7 Tasman vs. Otago Sep 28 Tasman 15.70
8 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 28 Canterbury 34.30