Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games
|1||Broncos vs. Cowboys||Mar 20||44 – 22||-1.60||FALSE|
|2||Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs||Mar 20||12 – 16||2.40||FALSE|
|3||Raiders vs. Dragons||Mar 21||20 – 22||-0.50||TRUE|
|4||Storm vs. Sharks||Mar 21||36 – 18||18.30||TRUE|
|5||Warriors vs. Eels||Mar 21||29 – 16||12.50||TRUE|
|6||Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers||Mar 22||20 – 6||28.60||TRUE|
|7||Titans vs. Knights||Mar 22||18 – 20||-8.80||TRUE|
|8||Roosters vs. Panthers||Mar 23||20 – 12||8.50||TRUE|
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Eels vs. Rabbitohs||Mar 27||Rabbitohs||-16.40|
|2||Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs||Mar 27||Bulldogs||-8.30|
|3||Dragons vs. Sea Eagles||Mar 28||Sea Eagles||-0.70|
|4||Knights vs. Panthers||Mar 28||Panthers||-1.60|
|5||Sharks vs. Titans||Mar 28||Sharks||2.20|
|6||Roosters vs. Raiders||Mar 29||Roosters||21.30|
|7||Warriors vs. Broncos||Mar 29||Warriors||3.10|
|8||Cowboys vs. Storm||Mar 30||Cowboys||3.80|