Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 136 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Sharks vs. Cowboys||Jul 18||18 – 36||-6.10||TRUE|
|2||Eels vs. Rabbitohs||Jul 18||12 – 32||-10.60||TRUE|
|3||Roosters vs. Panthers||Jul 19||32 – 12||8.90||TRUE|
|4||Storm vs. Raiders||Jul 19||28 – 14||9.40||TRUE|
|5||Broncos vs. Warriors||Jul 19||28 – 22||1.40||TRUE|
|6||Knights vs. Titans||Jul 20||8 – 22||10.00||FALSE|
|7||Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs||Jul 20||46 – 18||-6.40||FALSE|
|8||Dragons vs. Sea Eagles||Jul 21||12 – 21||-7.40||TRUE|
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Knights vs. Roosters||Jul 25||Roosters||-5.80|
|2||Broncos vs. Storm||Jul 25||Broncos||7.40|
|3||Panthers vs. Sharks||Jul 26||Panthers||14.80|
|4||Titans vs. Eels||Jul 26||Titans||11.20|
|5||Bulldogs vs. Cowboys||Jul 26||Bulldogs||0.50|
|6||Warriors vs. Sea Eagles||Jul 27||Warriors||1.90|
|7||Wests Tigers vs. Dragons||Jul 27||Wests Tigers||3.60|
|8||Raiders vs. Rabbitohs||Jul 28||Rabbitohs||-7.60|