Posts filed under Sports statistics (260)

July 29, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.93 9.09 1.80
Broncos 9.29 4.03 5.30
Cowboys 8.18 9.52 -1.30
Rabbitohs 6.42 13.06 -6.60
Storm 5.12 4.36 0.80
Bulldogs 1.11 0.21 0.90
Sea Eagles 0.49 2.68 -2.20
Warriors -0.22 3.07 -3.30
Raiders -1.16 -7.09 5.90
Dragons -1.80 -1.74 -0.10
Sharks -1.93 -10.76 8.80
Panthers -3.77 3.69 -7.50
Eels -5.78 -7.19 1.40
Knights -6.37 -0.28 -6.10
Wests Tigers -8.78 -13.13 4.30
Titans -10.39 -8.20 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Titans Jul 24 34 – 0 20.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 24 8 – 33 -15.30 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 25 52 – 6 11.10 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 25 22 – 4 8.60 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 12 – 32 7.00 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 26 16 – 18 7.40 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 26 24 – 34 2.10 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 27 46 – 4 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 Roosters 12.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 31 Storm -10.90
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 01 Warriors 5.70
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 Cowboys 12.30
5 Dragons vs. Knights Aug 02 Dragons 7.60
6 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 02 Rabbitohs 13.20
7 Titans vs. Eels Aug 03 Eels -1.60

 

July 22, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.23 9.09 1.10
Broncos 8.36 4.03 4.30
Cowboys 6.22 9.52 -3.30
Storm 4.44 4.36 0.10
Rabbitohs 4.09 13.06 -9.00
Bulldogs 1.78 0.21 1.60
Warriors 1.61 3.07 -1.50
Dragons -1.12 -1.74 0.60
Sea Eagles -1.34 2.68 -4.00
Raiders -2.02 -7.09 5.10
Sharks -2.60 -10.76 8.20
Panthers -2.91 3.69 -6.60
Eels -3.82 -7.19 3.40
Knights -4.03 -0.28 -3.80
Wests Tigers -8.09 -13.13 5.00
Titans -9.46 -8.20 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 17 52 – 10 5.50 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 17 4 – 28 0.80 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 8 – 24 0.00 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 18 30 – 2 5.30 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 18 20 – 21 4.40 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 19 24 – 0 10.80 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 19 42 – 16 18.40 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 20 12 – 30 -2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Titans Jul 24 Broncos 20.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 24 Roosters -15.30
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 25 Rabbitohs 11.10
4 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 25 Storm 8.60
5 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 Warriors 7.00
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 26 Bulldogs 7.40
7 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 26 Panthers 2.10
8 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 27 Cowboys 13.00

 

July 15, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.81 4.03 3.80
Cowboys 5.13 9.52 -4.40
Rabbitohs 2.97 13.06 -10.10
Warriors 2.54 3.07 -0.50
Storm 2.00 4.36 -2.40
Panthers 0.60 3.69 -3.10
Bulldogs 0.10 0.21 -0.10
Dragons -0.01 -1.74 1.70
Sea Eagles -0.26 2.68 -2.90
Raiders -1.62 -7.09 5.50
Eels -2.14 -7.19 5.00
Sharks -3.00 -10.76 7.80
Knights -5.58 -0.28 -5.30
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60
Titans -7.91 -8.20 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 10 36 – 22 5.80 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 11 8 – 16 -4.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 12 28 – 14 3.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 12 28 – 8 -3.20 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 6 – 38 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 17 Storm 4.40
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jul 17 Eels 0.80
3 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 Dragons 0.00
4 Knights vs. Titans Jul 18 Knights 5.30
5 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 18 Raiders 4.40
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 19 Roosters 9.70
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 19 Broncos 18.40
8 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 20 Cowboys -2.40

 

July 8, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.52 4.03 3.50
Cowboys 5.13 9.52 -4.40
Rabbitohs 2.97 13.06 -10.10
Storm 2.78 4.36 -1.60
Warriors 1.76 3.07 -1.30
Dragons 1.57 -1.74 3.30
Panthers 0.60 3.69 -3.10
Bulldogs 0.38 0.21 0.20
Eels -2.14 -7.19 5.00
Raiders -2.21 -7.09 4.90
Sea Eagles -2.38 2.68 -5.10
Sharks -4.58 -10.76 6.20
Knights -4.99 -0.28 -4.70
Titans -5.78 -8.20 2.40
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 20 – 6 -1.50 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 04 12 – 18 0.40 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 05 28 – 16 4.10 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 06 16 – 28 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 10 Raiders 5.80
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 11 Broncos -4.10
3 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 12 Warriors 3.00
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 12 Dragons -3.20
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 Sea Eagles -0.40
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 11 Roosters -4.60

 

July 1, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.23 9.09 -0.90
Broncos 7.52 4.03 3.50
Cowboys 4.67 9.52 -4.90
Rabbitohs 4.06 13.06 -9.00
Storm 2.78 4.36 -1.60
Dragons 2.04 -1.74 3.80
Warriors 1.76 3.07 -1.30
Bulldogs 0.38 0.21 0.20
Panthers -0.49 3.69 -4.20
Raiders -2.21 -7.09 4.90
Eels -2.93 -7.19 4.30
Sea Eagles -2.96 2.68 -5.60
Sharks -4.01 -10.76 6.70
Knights -4.99 -0.28 -4.70
Titans -5.78 -8.20 2.40
Wests Tigers -6.74 -13.13 6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 26 44 – 22 14.40 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 26 20 – 8 9.70 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 27 18 – 24 14.50 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 27 16 – 12 -3.00 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Raiders Jun 27 30 – 8 5.70 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Titans Jun 28 20 – 10 18.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 28 12 – 35 -0.10 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 29 20 – 4 -1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 Rabbitohs -1.50
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 04 Dragons 0.40
3 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 05 Sea Eagles 4.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 06 Eels -0.80

 

Super 15 Prediction for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 9.06 2.89 6.20
Highlanders 6.98 -2.54 9.50
Waratahs 6.13 10.00 -3.90
Brumbies 4.27 2.20 2.10
Chiefs 3.58 2.23 1.40
Stormers 0.47 1.68 -1.20
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 27 29 – 9 7.80 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jun 27 17 – 35 6.40 FALSE

 

Prediction for the Final

Here is the prediction for the final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 04 Hurricanes 6.10

 

June 24, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.82 9.09 -0.30
Broncos 6.98 4.03 2.90
Cowboys 6.07 9.52 -3.50
Storm 4.02 4.36 -0.30
Rabbitohs 3.88 13.06 -9.20
Dragons 2.55 -1.74 4.30
Warriors 0.63 3.07 -2.40
Bulldogs -0.85 0.21 -1.10
Raiders -1.08 -7.09 6.00
Panthers -2.05 3.69 -5.70
Sea Eagles -2.78 2.68 -5.50
Eels -3.44 -7.19 3.70
Knights -4.44 -0.28 -4.20
Wests Tigers -5.18 -13.13 7.90
Sharks -5.42 -10.76 5.30
Titans -6.37 -8.20 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 110 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 30 – 20 4.60 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Jun 20 24 – 12 2.90 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 20 20 – 21 -4.70 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 20 14 – 36 0.00 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Sharks Jun 21 28 – 30 5.00 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 21 12 – 14 0.40 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Jun 22 14 – 19 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 26 Broncos 14.40
2 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 26 Rabbitohs 9.70
3 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 27 Cowboys 14.50
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 27 Dragons -3.00
5 Warriors vs. Raiders Jun 27 Warriors 5.70
6 Roosters vs. Titans Jun 28 Roosters 18.20
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 28 Panthers -0.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Storm Jun 29 Storm -1.90

 

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals: Correction

I made a mistake in entering the fixtures and had the Waratahs playing away.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 8.31 2.89 5.40
Waratahs 7.48 10.00 -2.50
Highlanders 5.62 -2.54 8.20
Brumbies 5.03 2.20 2.80
Chiefs 3.58 2.23 1.40
Stormers 0.47 1.68 -1.20
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 20 24 – 14 5.40 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Brumbies Jun 20 19 – 39 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Here are the predictions for the Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 27 Hurricanes 7.80
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Jun 27 Waratahs 6.40

 

June 17, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.66 9.09 -0.40
Broncos 6.79 4.03 2.80
Cowboys 6.35 9.52 -3.20
Storm 4.20 4.36 -0.20
Rabbitohs 3.88 13.06 -9.20
Dragons 2.70 -1.74 4.40
Warriors -0.88 3.07 -4.00
Raiders -1.36 -7.09 5.70
Panthers -1.40 3.69 -5.10
Bulldogs -1.51 0.21 -1.70
Sea Eagles -3.17 2.68 -5.80
Eels -3.44 -7.19 3.70
Knights -3.94 -0.28 -3.70
Wests Tigers -4.78 -13.13 8.30
Titans -4.86 -8.20 3.30
Sharks -5.92 -10.76 4.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 12 34 – 6 -10.80 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 13 21 – 25 -5.80 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 14 28 – 14 -2.70 FALSE
4 Storm vs. Eels Jun 15 22 – 26 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 Sea Eagles 4.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Jun 20 Bulldogs 2.90
3 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 20 Cowboys -4.70
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 20 Titans 0.00
5 Knights vs. Sharks Jun 21 Knights 5.00
6 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 21 Storm 0.40
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Jun 22 Roosters -3.00

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.77 10.42 0.40
Hurricanes 8.31 2.89 5.40
Waratahs 7.48 10.00 -2.50
Highlanders 5.29 -2.54 7.80
Chiefs 3.91 2.23 1.70
Brumbies 3.76 2.20 1.60
Stormers 1.74 1.68 0.10
Bulls 0.39 2.88 -2.50
Lions -0.55 -3.39 2.80
Sharks -0.65 3.91 -4.60
Blues -4.49 1.44 -5.90
Rebels -4.89 -9.53 4.60
Force -7.16 -4.67 -2.50
Cheetahs -8.22 -5.55 -2.70
Reds -8.70 -4.98 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 12 7 – 44 -2.10 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Force Jun 12 11 – 13 7.50 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Crusaders Jun 13 24 – 37 -1.00 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 13 – 21 0.70 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Jun 13 31 – 5 19.30 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 13 29 – 42 15.70 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers Jun 13 34 – 12 -1.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 20 Highlanders 5.40
2 Stormers vs. Brumbies Jun 20 Stormers 2.50