Posts filed under Sports statistics (236)

April 22, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.52 9.09 -0.60
Rabbitohs 8.05 13.06 -5.00
Cowboys 7.76 9.52 -1.80
Storm 5.11 4.36 0.80
Broncos 4.63 4.03 0.60
Warriors 1.75 3.07 -1.30
Panthers 0.77 3.69 -2.90
Dragons 0.35 -1.74 2.10
Bulldogs 0.31 0.21 0.10
Knights -2.28 -0.28 -2.00
Sea Eagles -2.85 2.68 -5.50
Raiders -5.31 -7.09 1.80
Titans -5.36 -8.20 2.80
Sharks -5.85 -10.76 4.90
Eels -6.24 -7.19 0.90
Wests Tigers -8.00 -13.13 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 17 28 – 16 5.20 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Broncos Apr 17 12 – 10 -1.90 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Apr 18 28 – 24 11.00 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 18 17 – 16 -0.70 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 18 32 – 6 -7.60 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Eels Apr 19 22 – 28 9.10 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Apr 19 22 – 30 1.70 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Apr 20 18 – 10 -13.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 24 Bulldogs 11.30
2 Broncos vs. Eels Apr 25 Broncos 13.90
3 Knights vs. Cowboys Apr 25 Cowboys -7.00
4 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 11.20
5 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 Storm 11.00
6 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 Warriors 11.10
7 Panthers vs. Sharks Apr 26 Panthers 9.60
8 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 26 Rabbitohs 16.40

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.84 10.42 -2.60
Waratahs 7.50 10.00 -2.50
Chiefs 5.25 2.23 3.00
Hurricanes 5.18 2.89 2.30
Stormers 3.64 1.68 2.00
Bulls 3.43 2.88 0.60
Brumbies 3.22 2.20 1.00
Highlanders 1.02 -2.54 3.60
Blues 0.15 1.44 -1.30
Sharks -0.50 3.91 -4.40
Lions -3.19 -3.39 0.20
Force -5.75 -4.67 -1.10
Rebels -6.02 -9.53 3.50
Cheetahs -6.71 -5.55 -1.20
Reds -8.08 -4.98 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Apr 17 9 – 26 9.50 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 18 24 – 29 3.30 FALSE
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 18 30 – 24 4.60 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Apr 18 8 – 13 15.60 FALSE
5 Force vs. Stormers Apr 18 6 – 13 -4.40 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 18 10 – 17 1.10 FALSE
7 Cheetahs vs. Reds Apr 18 17 – 18 6.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Force Apr 24 Chiefs 15.50
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Apr 24 Brumbies 6.70
3 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 25 Crusaders 11.70
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 25 Waratahs 17.50
5 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 25 Lions 7.50
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 25 Stormers 4.20
7 Reds vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 Hurricanes -8.80

 

April 15, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.55 13.06 -3.50
Roosters 8.65 9.09 -0.40
Cowboys 8.27 9.52 -1.30
Storm 4.98 4.36 0.60
Broncos 4.92 4.03 0.90
Panthers 3.02 3.69 -0.70
Warriors 1.24 3.07 -1.80
Dragons 0.06 -1.74 1.80
Bulldogs -0.19 0.21 -0.40
Knights -1.23 -0.28 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.36 2.68 -5.00
Raiders -6.00 -7.09 1.10
Eels -7.29 -7.19 -0.10
Wests Tigers -7.31 -13.13 5.80
Sharks -7.35 -10.76 3.40
Titans -7.62 -8.20 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 10 22 – 18 -1.50 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 10 22 – 6 -6.20 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Titans Apr 11 16 – 38 7.30 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 11 22 – 12 8.10 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 32 – 22 13.00 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 31 – 6 -0.20 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 12 10 – 14 -8.70 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 13 12 – 30 7.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 17 Bulldogs 5.20
2 Dragons vs. Broncos Apr 17 Broncos -1.90
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Apr 18 Cowboys 11.00
4 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 18 Roosters -0.70
5 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 18 Panthers -7.60
6 Knights vs. Eels Apr 19 Knights 9.10
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Apr 19 Wests Tigers 1.70
8 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Apr 20 Rabbitohs -13.90

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.30 10.42 -1.10
Waratahs 6.96 10.00 -3.00
Hurricanes 5.72 2.89 2.80
Brumbies 4.40 2.20 2.20
Chiefs 3.79 2.23 1.60
Stormers 3.41 1.68 1.70
Bulls 2.89 2.88 0.00
Highlanders 0.90 -2.54 3.40
Blues 0.27 1.44 -1.20
Sharks 0.04 3.91 -3.90
Lions -3.19 -3.39 0.20
Force -5.51 -4.67 -0.80
Cheetahs -6.18 -5.55 -0.60
Rebels -7.20 -9.53 2.30
Reds -8.60 -4.98 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 10 16 – 14 0.00 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 11 20 – 25 14.70 FALSE
3 Waratahs vs. Stormers Apr 11 18 – 32 10.80 FALSE
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Apr 11 15 – 24 7.10 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 11 43 – 22 15.20 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 11 23 – 21 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Apr 17 Crusaders 9.50
2 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 18 Hurricanes 3.30
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 18 Highlanders 4.60
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Apr 18 Brumbies 15.60
5 Force vs. Stormers Apr 18 Stormers -4.40
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 18 Sharks 1.10
7 Cheetahs vs. Reds Apr 18 Cheetahs 6.90

 

April 10, 2015

Odds and probabilities

When quoting results of medical research there’s often confusion between odds and probabilities, but there are stories in the Herald and Stuff at the moment that illustrate the difference.

As you know (unless you’ve been on Mars with your eyes shut and your fingers in your ears), Jeremy Clarkson will no longer be presenting Top Gear, and the world is waiting with bated breath to hear about his successor.  Coral, a British firm of bookmakers, say that Sue Perkins is the current favourite.

The Herald quotes the Daily Mail, and so gives the odds as odds:

It has made her evens for the role, ahead of former X-factor presenter Dermot O’Leary who is 2-1 and British model Jodie Kidd who is third at 5-2.

Stuff translates these into NZ gambling terms, quoting the dividend, which is the reciprocal of the probability at which these would be regarded as fair bets

Bookmaker Coral have Perkins as the equivalent of a $2 favourite after a flurry of bets, while British-Irish presenter Dermot O’Leary was at $3 and television personality and fashion model Jodie Kidd at $3.50.

An odds of 5-2 means that betting £2 and winning gives you a profit of £5.  The NZ approach is to quote the total money you get back: a bet of $2 gets you $2 back plus $5 profit, for a total of $7, so a bet of $1 would get you $3.50.

The fair probability of winning for an odds of 5-2 is 2/(5+2); the fair probability for a dividend of $3.50 is 1/3.50, the same number.

Of course, if these were fair bets the bookies would go out of business: the actual implied probability for Jodie Kidd is lower than 1/3.5 and the actual implied probability for Sue Perkins is lower than 0.5.  On top of that, there is no guarantee the betting public is well calibrated on this issue.

 

April 8, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.30 13.06 -1.80
Roosters 9.06 9.09 -0.00
Cowboys 6.51 9.52 -3.00
Storm 5.32 4.36 1.00
Broncos 4.51 4.03 0.50
Panthers 2.88 3.69 -0.80
Bulldogs 1.52 0.21 1.30
Warriors 1.47 3.07 -1.60
Knights 0.29 -0.28 0.60
Dragons -1.66 -1.74 0.10
Sea Eagles -2.21 2.68 -4.90
Eels -5.31 -7.19 1.90
Raiders -6.34 -7.09 0.70
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60
Sharks -8.87 -10.76 1.90
Titans -9.60 -8.20 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 03 17 – 18 -7.80 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 03 16 – 26 -11.30 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 04 0 – 13 7.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 04 16 – 29 10.30 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 05 12 – 20 25.40 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 6 – 22 8.60 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 06 10 – 30 2.40 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 06 30 – 14 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 10 Roosters -1.50
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 10 Knights -6.20
3 Eels vs. Titans Apr 11 Eels 7.30
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 11 Panthers 8.10
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 Warriors 13.00
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 Bulldogs -0.20
7 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 12 Storm -8.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 13 Rabbitohs 7.80

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.43 10.42 0.00
Waratahs 8.34 10.00 -1.70
Hurricanes 5.72 2.89 2.80
Brumbies 4.58 2.20 2.40
Chiefs 3.79 2.23 1.60
Bulls 2.49 2.88 -0.40
Stormers 2.03 1.68 0.30
Sharks 0.17 3.91 -3.70
Blues 0.09 1.44 -1.30
Highlanders -0.23 -2.54 2.30
Lions -3.32 -3.39 0.10
Force -4.56 -4.67 0.10
Cheetahs -7.14 -5.55 -1.60
Rebels -7.20 -9.53 2.30
Reds -8.20 -4.98 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 03 25 – 20 8.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 23 – 15 4.30 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 04 23 – 16 7.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Apr 04 20 – 3 16.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 04 10 – 52 -1.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Bulls Apr 04 22 – 18 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 10 Blues 0.00
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 11 Crusaders 14.70
3 Waratahs vs. Stormers Apr 11 Waratahs 10.80
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Apr 11 Force 7.10
5 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 11 Bulls 15.20
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 11 Lions 0.50

 

April 1, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.79 13.06 -1.30
Roosters 11.30 9.09 2.20
Cowboys 4.98 9.52 -4.50
Storm 4.64 4.36 0.30
Broncos 4.61 4.03 0.60
Panthers 4.41 3.69 0.70
Warriors 2.15 3.07 -0.90
Knights 1.72 -0.28 2.00
Bulldogs 1.03 0.21 0.80
Sea Eagles -0.61 2.68 -3.30
Dragons -3.09 -1.74 -1.40
Eels -3.63 -7.19 3.60
Raiders -7.94 -7.09 -0.90
Wests Tigers -9.21 -13.13 3.90
Titans -9.71 -8.20 -1.50
Sharks -11.11 -10.76 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Mar 27 29 – 16 -16.40 FALSE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 24 – 25 -8.30 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 28 12 – 4 -0.70 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 28 26 – 14 -1.60 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 28 22 – 24 2.20 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Raiders Mar 29 34 – 6 21.30 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Broncos Mar 29 16 – 24 3.10 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 30 18 – 17 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 03 Rabbitohs -7.80
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 03 Broncos -11.30
3 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 04 Knights 7.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 04 Sea Eagles 10.30
5 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 05 Roosters 25.40
6 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 Eels 8.60
7 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 06 Panthers 2.40
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 06 Storm 6.50

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.34 10.42 -2.10
Waratahs 8.34 10.00 -1.70
Hurricanes 6.07 2.89 3.20
Brumbies 4.50 2.20 2.30
Chiefs 3.86 2.23 1.60
Bulls 2.95 2.88 0.10
Sharks 2.26 3.91 -1.70
Stormers 1.68 1.68 -0.00
Blues 0.02 1.44 -1.40
Highlanders -0.23 -2.54 2.30
Lions -3.78 -3.39 -0.40
Force -4.56 -4.67 0.10
Cheetahs -7.05 -5.55 -1.50
Rebels -7.53 -9.53 2.00
Reds -7.87 -4.98 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 47 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 27 36 – 12 17.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Lions Mar 27 17 – 18 0.70 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 28 37 – 27 16.30 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 28 39 – 21 0.50 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 28 23 – 11 13.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Force Mar 28 15 – 9 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Crusaders Mar 28 31 – 19 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 03 Hurricanes 8.90
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 Rebels 4.30
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 04 Chiefs 7.80
4 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Apr 04 Brumbies 16.00
5 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 04 Crusaders -1.60
6 Lions vs. Bulls Apr 04 Bulls -2.70

 

March 25, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 13.78 13.06 0.70
Roosters 10.81 9.09 1.70
Panthers 5.37 3.69 1.70
Cowboys 5.19 9.52 -4.30
Storm 4.43 4.36 0.10
Broncos 3.83 4.03 -0.20
Warriors 2.94 3.07 -0.10
Bulldogs 1.56 0.21 1.40
Knights 0.77 -0.28 1.00
Sea Eagles 0.01 2.68 -2.70
Dragons -3.71 -1.74 -2.00
Eels -5.62 -7.19 1.60
Raiders -7.45 -7.09 -0.40
Wests Tigers -9.74 -13.13 3.40
Titans -10.02 -8.20 -1.80
Sharks -10.80 -10.76 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 20 44 – 22 -1.60 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 20 12 – 16 2.40 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Mar 21 20 – 22 -0.50 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sharks Mar 21 36 – 18 18.30 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Eels Mar 21 29 – 16 12.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 20 – 6 28.60 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 18 – 20 -8.80 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 23 20 – 12 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Mar 27 Rabbitohs -16.40
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 Bulldogs -8.30
3 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 28 Sea Eagles -0.70
4 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 28 Panthers -1.60
5 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 28 Sharks 2.20
6 Roosters vs. Raiders Mar 29 Roosters 21.30
7 Warriors vs. Broncos Mar 29 Warriors 3.10
8 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 30 Cowboys 3.80