Posts filed under Sports statistics (337)

June 22, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.48 10.29 0.20
Storm 9.22 4.41 4.80
Broncos 8.30 9.81 -1.50
Sharks 6.64 -1.06 7.70
Bulldogs 3.05 1.50 1.60
Raiders 2.45 -0.55 3.00
Eels 1.23 -4.62 5.90
Panthers -0.24 -3.06 2.80
Roosters -1.35 11.20 -12.60
Dragons -2.11 -0.10 -2.00
Titans -2.92 -8.39 5.50
Sea Eagles -3.03 0.36 -3.40
Warriors -3.48 -7.47 4.00
Rabbitohs -3.57 -1.20 -2.40
Wests Tigers -5.88 -4.06 -1.80
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jun 17 12 – 30 0.80 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Storm Jun 18 20 – 10 -11.20 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 19 12 – 10 1.80 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 30 – 10 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 24 Panthers 6.30
2 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 25 Dragons -12.00
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 25 Sharks 14.10
4 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jun 25 Broncos -2.30
5 Titans vs. Raiders Jun 26 Raiders -2.40
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 26 Storm 18.10
7 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jun 27 Cowboys 16.50

 

June 15, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.68 4.41 6.30
Cowboys 10.48 10.29 0.20
Broncos 8.30 9.81 -1.50
Sharks 6.64 -1.06 7.70
Bulldogs 3.05 1.50 1.60
Raiders 2.45 -0.55 3.00
Eels -0.07 -4.62 4.60
Panthers -0.24 -3.06 2.80
Roosters -1.34 11.20 -12.50
Sea Eagles -1.67 0.36 -2.00
Rabbitohs -2.28 -1.20 -1.10
Warriors -3.49 -7.47 4.00
Dragons -3.56 -0.10 -3.50
Titans -4.27 -8.39 4.10
Wests Tigers -5.88 -4.06 -1.80
Knights -17.13 -5.41 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 09 26 – 18 9.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 30 – 14 -6.70 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 11 14 – 50 -5.50 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Titans Jun 11 22 – 12 3.20 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 11 0 – 46 -3.40 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jun 12 24 – 31 3.00 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jun 13 16 – 34 -4.80 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jun 13 13 – 10 -1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jun 17 Rabbitohs 0.80
2 Dragons vs. Storm Jun 18 Storm -11.20
3 Warriors vs. Roosters Jun 19 Warriors 1.80
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 Titans 0.40

 

June 8, 2016

NRL Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.84 10.29 0.50
Broncos 8.38 9.81 -1.40
Storm 7.85 4.41 3.40
Sharks 6.27 -1.06 7.30
Raiders 2.37 -0.55 2.90
Bulldogs 2.12 1.50 0.60
Roosters 1.49 11.20 -9.70
Eels -0.56 -4.62 4.10
Rabbitohs -0.72 -1.20 0.50
Sea Eagles -0.96 0.36 -1.30
Panthers -0.96 -3.06 2.10
Dragons -2.63 -0.10 -2.50
Titans -3.78 -8.39 4.60
Warriors -5.55 -7.47 1.90
Wests Tigers -7.43 -4.06 -3.40
Knights -15.07 -5.41 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 03 30 – 18 5.40 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 04 36 – 18 -14.30 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 04 46 – 16 28.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 04 24 – 6 10.80 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 05 32 – 18 11.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 05 28 – 29 3.80 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 06 18 – 20 -1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 09 Broncos 9.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 Rabbitohs -6.70
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 11 Warriors -5.50
4 Eels vs. Titans Jun 11 Eels 3.20
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 11 Storm -3.40
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Jun 12 Sea Eagles 3.00
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Jun 13 Bulldogs -4.80
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Jun 13 Cowboys -1.60

 

June 1, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.81 9.84 -0.00
Highlanders 7.08 6.80 0.30
Hurricanes 6.99 7.26 -0.30
Brumbies 5.22 3.15 2.10
Waratahs 5.13 4.88 0.30
Lions 4.88 -1.80 6.70
Chiefs 4.55 2.68 1.90
Sharks 2.86 -1.64 4.50
Stormers 0.33 -0.62 1.00
Bulls -3.03 -0.74 -2.30
Blues -4.91 -5.51 0.60
Rebels -6.09 -6.33 0.20
Cheetahs -7.01 -9.27 2.30
Jaguares -9.08 -10.00 0.90
Reds -9.34 -9.81 0.50
Force -10.81 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -18.62 -10.00 -8.60
Kings -21.19 -13.66 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 27 27 – 20 2.90 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs May 27 45 – 25 2.50 TRUE
3 Kings vs. Jaguares May 27 29 – 22 -10.20 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Crusaders May 28 21 – 26 -12.10 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 28 66 – 5 23.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 28 31 – 24 11.40 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 28 20 – 56 -0.10 TRUE
8 Rebels vs. Force May 29 27 – 22 8.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 01 Crusaders -1.80
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Jul 01 Brumbies 18.10
3 Sunwolves vs. Waratahs Jul 02 Waratahs -19.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jul 02 Hurricanes 15.40
5 Rebels vs. Stormers Jul 02 Stormers -2.40
6 Cheetahs vs. Force Jul 02 Cheetahs 7.80
7 Kings vs. Highlanders Jul 02 Highlanders -24.30
8 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 02 Lions 5.50
9 Jaguares vs. Bulls Jul 02 Bulls -2.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cowboys 10.74 10.29 0.40
Broncos 10.55 9.81 0.70
Storm 7.33 4.41 2.90
Sharks 6.19 -1.06 7.20
Bulldogs 2.20 1.50 0.70
Raiders 1.89 -0.55 2.40
Roosters 1.29 11.20 -9.90
Rabbitohs -0.34 -1.20 0.90
Panthers -0.43 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 0.36 -0.80
Eels -0.56 -4.62 4.10
Dragons -2.63 -0.10 -2.50
Titans -4.16 -8.39 4.20
Wests Tigers -7.23 -4.06 -3.20
Warriors -7.72 -7.47 -0.30
Knights -14.97 -5.41 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 27 18 – 19 24.20 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys May 28 14 – 10 -12.70 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 29 32 – 20 1.10 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Eels May 30 18 – 20 -13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 03 Raiders 5.40
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 04 Broncos -14.30
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Jun 04 Cowboys 28.70
4 Storm vs. Panthers Jun 04 Storm 10.80
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 05 Roosters 11.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 05 Rabbitohs 3.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 06 Sharks -1.00

 

May 25, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.23 9.84 0.40
Highlanders 7.33 6.80 0.50
Hurricanes 6.75 7.26 -0.50
Chiefs 5.60 2.68 2.90
Waratahs 4.08 4.88 -0.80
Brumbies 2.95 3.15 -0.20
Sharks 2.86 -1.64 4.50
Lions 2.72 -1.80 4.50
Stormers 0.59 -0.62 1.20
Bulls -0.87 -0.74 -0.10
Blues -5.34 -5.51 0.20
Rebels -5.87 -6.33 0.50
Cheetahs -7.27 -9.27 2.00
Jaguares -8.05 -10.00 1.90
Reds -9.34 -9.81 0.50
Force -11.03 -8.43 -2.60
Sunwolves -16.35 -10.00 -6.40
Kings -22.22 -13.66 -8.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 20 29 – 10 8.90 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 21 35 – 25 11.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels May 21 36 – 15 14.70 TRUE
4 Force vs. Blues May 21 13 – 17 -1.40 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Jaguares May 21 52 – 24 13.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Kings May 21 53 – 0 25.30 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Stormers May 21 17 – 13 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 27 Hurricanes 2.90
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs May 27 Waratahs 2.50
3 Kings vs. Jaguares May 27 Jaguares -10.20
4 Blues vs. Crusaders May 28 Crusaders -12.10
5 Brumbies vs. Sunwolves May 28 Brumbies 23.30
6 Stormers vs. Cheetahs May 28 Stormers 11.40
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 28 Lions -0.10
8 Rebels vs. Force May 29 Rebels 8.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 12.27 9.81 2.50
Cowboys 11.90 10.29 1.60
Storm 7.33 4.41 2.90
Sharks 6.19 -1.06 7.20
Bulldogs 2.97 1.50 1.50
Roosters 1.29 11.20 -9.90
Raiders 1.12 -0.55 1.70
Eels 0.22 -4.62 4.80
Rabbitohs -0.34 -1.20 0.90
Panthers -0.43 -3.06 2.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 0.36 -0.80
Dragons -3.79 -0.10 -3.70
Titans -4.16 -8.39 4.20
Warriors -7.72 -7.47 -0.30
Wests Tigers -8.95 -4.06 -4.90
Knights -15.75 -5.41 -10.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 19 34 – 24 2.40 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 20 19 – 18 2.90 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 21 20 – 12 10.10 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Raiders May 21 12 – 38 -1.50 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 21 20 – 12 10.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Titans May 22 24 – 28 8.50 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 22 32 – 20 3.50 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Storm May 23 6 – 18 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers May 27 Broncos 24.20
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys May 28 Cowboys -12.70
3 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 29 Raiders 1.10
4 Knights vs. Eels May 30 Eels -13.00

 

May 21, 2016

Advertising, health promotion, and lots of latex

The biennial Olympic condom story is out.  The Rio Olympics are planning to give away 450,000 condoms in the Olympic Village, compared to a mere 150,000 in London, and 90,000 in Sydney (initially 70,000, but they ran out).

This graph shows (with black dots) the publicised numbers for the past Olympics that I could find easily (Torino seems to be keeping quiet, for some reason)

condoms

So, why so many? Condoms are cheap to produce and hard to advertise.  Even buying retail from Amazon you can get 1000 for less than US$150, so 450,000 would cost about US$65k.  In a setting like this, I’m sure the health promotion folks are paying a lot less than that, and the international news coverage implying that Olympic athletes have safe sex is worth far more than the cost of materials.

The red dot? Oh yes. That’s the number handed out by the Health Ministry campaigners at street parties for Carnival this year in Brazil.

May 18, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.63 9.84 -0.20
Highlanders 7.33 6.80 0.50
Hurricanes 6.75 7.26 -0.50
Chiefs 5.22 2.68 2.50
Waratahs 4.69 4.88 -0.20
Brumbies 2.95 3.15 -0.20
Lions 1.82 -1.80 3.60
Sharks 1.19 -1.64 2.80
Stormers 0.72 -0.62 1.30
Bulls -1.01 -0.74 -0.30
Rebels -5.49 -6.33 0.80
Blues -5.50 -5.51 0.00
Jaguares -7.15 -10.00 2.80
Cheetahs -7.27 -9.27 2.00
Reds -9.27 -9.81 0.50
Force -10.87 -8.43 -2.40
Sunwolves -16.42 -10.00 -6.40
Kings -20.56 -13.66 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 13 34 – 26 0.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 13 22 – 30 -4.50 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds May 14 29 – 14 20.70 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Bulls May 14 31 – 8 7.90 TRUE
5 Sunwolves vs. Stormers May 14 17 – 17 -14.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings May 14 34 – 20 17.20 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Blues May 14 43 – 5 7.70 TRUE
8 Jaguares vs. Sharks May 14 22 – 25 -4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 20 Crusaders 8.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 21 Reds 11.20
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels May 21 Chiefs 14.70
4 Force vs. Blues May 21 Blues -1.40
5 Lions vs. Jaguares May 21 Lions 13.00
6 Sharks vs. Kings May 21 Sharks 25.30
7 Bulls vs. Stormers May 21 Bulls 1.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Broncos 12.11 9.81 2.30
Cowboys 12.06 10.29 1.80
Storm 6.67 4.41 2.30
Sharks 6.35 -1.06 7.40
Bulldogs 2.36 1.50 0.90
Roosters 1.90 11.20 -9.30
Eels 0.88 -4.62 5.50
Panthers 0.45 -3.06 3.50
Raiders -0.55 -0.55 0.00
Sea Eagles -0.64 0.36 -1.00
Rabbitohs -0.89 -1.20 0.30
Dragons -3.24 -0.10 -3.10
Titans -5.04 -8.39 3.30
Warriors -6.04 -7.47 1.40
Wests Tigers -8.78 -4.06 -4.70
Knights -15.92 -5.41 -10.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Raiders May 12 16 – 12 -0.40 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs May 13 20 – 22 5.90 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Warriors May 14 30 – 18 5.60 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Cowboys May 14 15 – 14 -6.50 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 14 30 – 6 14.40 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Sharks May 15 0 – 62 -12.80 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 15 4 – 36 -7.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Roosters May 16 26 – 6 -7.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 19 Rabbitohs 2.40
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 20 Cowboys 2.90
3 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 21 Wests Tigers 10.10
4 Warriors vs. Raiders May 21 Raiders -1.50
5 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 21 Sharks 10.00
6 Panthers vs. Titans May 22 Panthers 8.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 22 Bulldogs 3.50
8 Eels vs. Storm May 23 Storm -2.80