Team Ratings for the SemiFinals
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Kings vs. Pumas||Oct 10||26 – 25||-2.20||FALSE|
|2||Lions vs. Cheetahs||Oct 11||47 – 7||11.30||TRUE|
|3||Western Province vs. Sharks||Oct 11||20 – 28||8.70||FALSE|
|4||Blue Bulls vs. Griquas||Oct 11||46 – 12||13.70||TRUE|
Predictions for the SemiFinals
Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team
|1||Lions vs. Sharks||Oct 18||Lions||6.70|
|2||Western Province vs. Blue Bulls||Oct 18||Western Province||10.00|