Posts filed under Sports statistics (195)

September 2, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 26

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.62 12.35 -0.70
Rabbitohs 10.28 5.82 4.50
Cowboys 8.03 6.01 2.00
Storm 7.09 7.64 -0.50
Sea Eagles 4.77 9.10 -4.30
Broncos 4.50 -4.69 9.20
Warriors 4.09 -0.72 4.80
Panthers 1.92 -2.48 4.40
Dragons 0.35 -7.57 7.90
Bulldogs -2.68 2.46 -5.10
Knights -2.73 5.23 -8.00
Eels -7.17 -18.45 11.30
Raiders -8.58 -8.99 0.40
Titans -8.67 1.45 -10.10
Sharks -9.35 2.32 -11.70
Wests Tigers -15.25 -11.26 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 14 – 21 -8.90 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 29 30 – 22 8.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Eels Aug 30 42 – 12 4.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 27 – 12 10.20 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 30 24 – 12 8.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Titans Aug 31 42 – 0 12.20 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 31 26 – 25 8.90 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Sharks Sep 01 20 – 19 26.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 04 Roosters 5.80
2 Storm vs. Broncos Sep 05 Storm 7.10
3 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 06 Sharks -1.40
4 Raiders vs. Eels Sep 06 Raiders 3.10
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Cowboys 7.80
6 Knights vs. Dragons Sep 07 Knights 1.40
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 07 Bulldogs -1.50
8 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 08 Panthers 2.30

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60
Tasman 12.10 5.78 6.30
Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00
Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 1.75 2.75 -1.00
Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00
Auckland 0.31 4.92 -4.60
Otago -1.29 -1.45 0.20
Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20
Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60
Bay of Plenty -8.38 -5.47 -2.90
Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90
Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90
North Harbour -9.93 -9.77 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Taranaki Aug 27 17 – 46 8.50 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 28 48 – 3 32.80 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 29 21 – 27 21.60 FALSE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 30 21 – 27 4.40 FALSE
5 Southland vs. Otago Aug 30 22 – 33 0.00 FALSE
6 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 30 16 – 22 -6.70 TRUE
7 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 41 – 3 8.70 TRUE
8 Auckland vs. Tasman Aug 31 16 – 16 -1.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 03 Manawatu 2.90
2 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 04 Canterbury -17.00
3 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 05 Tasman 15.30
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 05 Hawke’s Bay -6.80
5 Auckland vs. Wellington Sep 06 Wellington -3.90
6 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 06 Taranaki 5.60
7 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Sep 07 Counties Manukau -7.60
8 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Bay of Plenty 5.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.39 3.43 2.00
Sharks 3.32 5.09 -1.80
Lions 3.02 0.07 3.00
Cheetahs 0.25 0.33 -0.10
Blue Bulls -3.53 -0.74 -2.80
Pumas -7.10 -10.00 2.90
Griquas -8.55 -7.49 -1.10
Kings -12.12 -10.00 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 29 32 – 22 -7.50 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 25 – 36 -2.70 TRUE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 30 18 – 23 -3.70 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Lions Aug 30 22 – 41 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Kings Sep 05 Western Province 22.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 06 Cheetahs 12.40
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Sep 06 Sharks 16.90
4 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 06 Lions -1.50

 

August 26, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 11.22 12.35 -1.10
Rabbitohs 10.50 5.82 4.70
Cowboys 10.23 6.01 4.20
Storm 7.48 7.64 -0.20
Sea Eagles 5.54 9.10 -3.60
Broncos 4.60 -4.69 9.30
Warriors 1.54 -0.72 2.30
Panthers 1.15 -2.48 3.60
Dragons 0.25 -7.57 7.80
Bulldogs -2.89 2.46 -5.40
Knights -4.94 5.23 -10.20
Eels -4.96 -18.45 13.50
Titans -6.12 1.45 -7.60
Raiders -9.08 -8.99 -0.10
Sharks -11.55 2.32 -13.90
Wests Tigers -14.75 -11.26 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 21 30 – 10 15.40 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 22 – 12 -9.50 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 23 48 – 6 8.40 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Aug 23 10 – 22 8.40 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Roosters Aug 24 12 – 46 0.60 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 24 12 – 22 4.70 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 24 34 – 6 7.20 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 25 10 – 24 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Aug 28 Rabbitohs -8.90
2 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 29 Broncos 8.90
3 Knights vs. Eels Aug 30 Knights 4.50
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 Raiders 10.20
5 Roosters vs. Storm Aug 30 Roosters 8.20
6 Warriors vs. Titans Aug 31 Warriors 12.20
7 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 31 Sea Eagles 8.90
8 Cowboys vs. Sharks Sep 01 Cowboys 26.30

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60
Tasman 9.09 5.78 3.30
Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00
Auckland 3.31 4.92 -1.60
Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 1.75 2.75 -1.00
Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00
Otago -1.29 -1.45 0.20
Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20
Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60
Bay of Plenty -8.38 -5.47 -2.90
Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90
Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90
North Harbour -9.93 -9.77 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Southland Aug 21 21 – 25 -0.70 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 22 27 – 58 -14.90 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Aug 22 29 – 26 9.40 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Wellington Aug 23 35 – 5 -13.30 FALSE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Aug 23 29 – 25 7.50 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 24 7 – 35 -8.80 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Aug 24 27 – 56 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Taranaki Aug 27 Waikato 8.50
2 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 28 Canterbury 32.80
3 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 29 Wellington 21.60
4 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 30 Counties Manukau 4.40
5 Southland vs. Otago Aug 30 Southland 0.00
6 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 30 Waikato -6.70
7 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 Taranaki 8.70
8 Auckland vs. Tasman Aug 31 Tasman -1.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.29 3.43 1.90
Sharks 4.37 5.09 -0.70
Lions 2.37 0.07 2.30
Cheetahs -0.28 0.33 -0.60
Blue Bulls -3.43 -0.74 -2.70
Griquas -8.02 -7.49 -0.50
Pumas -8.15 -10.00 1.80
Kings -11.47 -10.00 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 91.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 22 33 – 15 3.00 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 23 30 – 25 14.20 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 23 27 – 14 7.10 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 23 19 – 16 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 29 Sharks -7.50
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 Cheetahs -2.70
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Aug 30 Western Province -3.70
4 Kings vs. Lions Aug 30 Lions -8.80

 

August 20, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 12.31 5.82 6.50
Cowboys 8.42 6.01 2.40
Roosters 8.31 12.35 -4.00
Sea Eagles 7.28 9.10 -1.80
Storm 6.12 7.64 -1.50
Warriors 4.45 -0.72 5.20
Panthers 2.51 -2.48 5.00
Broncos 1.76 -4.69 6.40
Dragons -1.60 -7.57 6.00
Knights -2.10 5.23 -7.30
Bulldogs -3.37 2.46 -5.80
Titans -4.27 1.45 -5.70
Eels -6.70 -18.45 11.80
Sharks -10.20 2.32 -12.50
Raiders -10.43 -8.99 -1.40
Wests Tigers -14.28 -11.26 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 14 42 – 16 12.60 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 16 – 18 2.00 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 16 16 – 34 -1.30 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 16 48 – 6 16.40 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 16 4 – 48 -12.80 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 17 28 – 22 -4.00 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 12 – 15 -8.10 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 18 23 – 22 -2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 21 Bulldogs 15.40
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Sea Eagles -9.50
3 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 23 Broncos 8.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Aug 23 Rabbitohs 8.40
5 Warriors vs. Roosters Aug 24 Warriors 0.60
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 24 Sharks 4.70
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 24 Dragons 7.20
8 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 25 Panthers 0.90

 

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.69 18.09 1.60
Wellington 8.20 10.16 -2.00
Tasman 6.79 5.78 1.00
Auckland 3.31 4.92 -1.60
Counties Manukau 2.19 2.40 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 1.75 2.75 -1.00
Waikato 0.77 -1.20 2.00
Otago -1.29 -1.45 0.20
Taranaki -3.68 -3.89 0.20
Southland -5.25 -5.85 0.60
Bay of Plenty -6.08 -5.47 -0.60
Northland -9.09 -8.22 -0.90
Manawatu -9.45 -10.32 0.90
North Harbour -9.93 -9.77 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 14 9 – 9 -2.30 FALSE
2 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 34 – 23 3.60 TRUE
3 Otago vs. North Harbour Aug 16 28 – 14 12.30 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 16 48 – 9 17.20 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Waikato Aug 16 25 – 37 15.40 FALSE
6 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 35 – 15 7.00 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 23 – 28 6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Southland Aug 21 Southland -0.70
2 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 22 Canterbury -14.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay 9.40
4 Northland vs. Wellington Aug 23 Wellington -13.30
5 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Aug 23 Counties Manukau 7.50
6 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 24 Auckland -8.80
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Aug 24 Tasman -8.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.90 3.43 1.50
Sharks 4.87 5.09 -0.20
Lions 2.77 0.07 2.70
Cheetahs -0.78 0.33 -1.10
Blue Bulls -2.84 -0.74 -2.10
Griquas -7.10 -7.49 0.40
Pumas -9.07 -10.00 0.90
Kings -12.06 -10.00 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Aug 15 34 – 17 19.30 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 16 41 – 17 11.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Kings Aug 16 60 – 19 17.00 TRUE
4 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 16 34 – 27 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 22 Pumas 3.00
2 Blue Bulls vs. Kings Aug 23 Blue Bulls 14.20
3 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 23 Western Province 7.10
4 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 23 Sharks 10.60

 

August 13, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.06 5.82 5.20
Cowboys 8.75 6.01 2.70
Sea Eagles 7.80 9.10 -1.30
Roosters 5.65 12.35 -6.70
Warriors 5.40 -0.72 6.10
Storm 3.89 7.64 -3.70
Broncos 3.00 -4.69 7.70
Panthers 2.18 -2.48 4.70
Knights -3.05 5.23 -8.30
Dragons -3.11 -7.57 4.50
Bulldogs -3.78 2.46 -6.20
Titans -4.79 1.45 -6.20
Eels -6.28 -18.45 12.20
Sharks -7.97 2.32 -10.30
Raiders -8.92 -8.99 0.10
Wests Tigers -11.62 -11.26 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 23 – 4 5.20 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Aug 08 41 – 10 7.10 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 09 64 – 6 18.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 09 32 – 30 -3.60 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Raiders Aug 09 18 – 10 6.90 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 10 16 – 12 20.90 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 10 4 – 16 1.80 FALSE
8 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 11 26 – 18 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Aug 14 Rabbitohs 12.60
2 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 Eels 2.00
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 16 Dragons -1.30
4 Storm vs. Sharks Aug 16 Storm 16.40
5 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Aug 16 Roosters -12.80
6 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 17 Warriors -4.00
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 Sea Eagles -8.10
8 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 18 Cowboys -2.10