Posts filed under Sports statistics (152)

April 16, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 7.55 12.35 -4.80
Rabbitohs 6.40 5.82 0.60
Bulldogs 6.24 2.46 3.80
Sea Eagles 5.95 9.10 -3.10
Cowboys 2.89 6.01 -3.10
Knights 2.86 5.23 -2.40
Storm 2.24 7.64 -5.40
Titans 0.26 1.45 -1.20
Broncos -1.83 -4.69 2.90
Sharks -2.75 2.32 -5.10
Panthers -2.92 -2.48 -0.40
Wests Tigers -4.13 -11.26 7.10
Warriors -4.40 -0.72 -3.70
Raiders -5.45 -8.99 3.50
Dragons -5.47 -7.57 2.10
Eels -9.20 -18.45 9.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 11 2 – 18 -2.30 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 11 12 – 8 7.30 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Knights Apr 12 12 – 26 -1.50 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Roosters Apr 12 14 – 12 -15.40 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Apr 12 16 – 4 -5.70 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Apr 13 20 – 21 -7.40 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Apr 13 24 – 4 11.60 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Dragons Apr 14 28 – 24 14.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 18 Rabbitohs 4.70
2 Knights vs. Broncos Apr 18 Knights 9.20
3 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Apr 18 Sea Eagles 7.60
4 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 19 Dragons 3.40
5 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 19 Roosters -5.80
6 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 20 Storm -3.20
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 21 Wests Tigers -0.60
8 Panthers vs. Titans Apr 21 Panthers 1.30

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 7.52 4.57 3.00
Crusaders 7.20 8.80 -1.60
Chiefs 4.10 4.38 -0.30
Brumbies 4.06 4.12 -0.10
Waratahs 3.18 1.67 1.50
Bulls 2.88 4.87 -2.00
Stormers 0.66 4.38 -3.70
Hurricanes 0.51 -1.44 1.90
Reds -0.84 0.58 -1.40
Blues -1.33 -1.92 0.60
Force -2.44 -5.37 2.90
Highlanders -3.83 -4.48 0.70
Cheetahs -4.29 0.12 -4.40
Rebels -5.18 -6.36 1.20
Lions -5.22 -6.93 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Bulls Apr 11 27 – 20 -4.10 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 11 20 – 23 -2.30 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels Apr 12 22 – 16 14.40 TRUE
4 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 12 28 – 16 -5.20 FALSE
5 Cheetahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 31 – 52 -5.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 12 12 – 25 -9.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues Apr 18 Hurricanes 4.30
2 Rebels vs. Force Apr 18 Force -0.20
3 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 19 Crusaders -0.60
4 Waratahs vs. Bulls Apr 19 Waratahs 4.30
5 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Apr 19 Sharks 14.30
6 Stormers vs. Lions Apr 19 Stormers 8.40

 

April 11, 2014

The favourite never wins?

From Deadspin, an analysis of accuracy in 11 million tournament predictions (‘brackets’) for the US college basketball competition, and 53 predictions by experts

s33yj1vrb8bx7dtfyenw

 

Stephen Pettigrew’s analysis shows the experts average more points than the general public (651681 vs 604.4). What he doesn’t point out explicitly is that picking the favourites, which corresponds to the big spike at 680 points, does rather better than the average expert.

 

April 9, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.12 12.35 -3.20
Bulldogs 6.88 2.46 4.40
Rabbitohs 5.14 5.82 -0.70
Sea Eagles 5.13 9.10 -4.00
Cowboys 4.48 6.01 -1.50
Storm 3.21 7.64 -4.40
Knights 1.69 5.23 -3.50
Titans 0.61 1.45 -0.80
Panthers -1.66 -2.48 0.80
Sharks -1.93 2.32 -4.30
Broncos -2.18 -4.69 2.50
Raiders -4.29 -8.99 4.70
Warriors -5.04 -0.72 -4.30
Wests Tigers -5.72 -11.26 5.50
Dragons -6.44 -7.57 1.10
Eels -10.77 -18.45 7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Apr 04 8 – 9 8.60 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Eels Apr 04 18 – 25 17.30 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 05 37 – 6 2.80 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 05 12 – 6 7.50 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Apr 05 6 – 26 -4.20 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Titans Apr 06 26 – 28 9.20 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 06 34 – 18 -11.00 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Knights Apr 07 28 – 2 3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 11 Rabbitohs -2.30
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 11 Titans 7.30
3 Raiders vs. Knights Apr 12 Knights -1.50
4 Eels vs. Roosters Apr 12 Roosters -15.40
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Apr 12 Cowboys -5.70
6 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Apr 13 Bulldogs -7.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Apr 13 Sea Eagles 11.60
8 Storm vs. Dragons Apr 14 Storm 14.10

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 7.29 4.57 2.70
Crusaders 6.27 8.80 -2.50
Chiefs 4.65 4.38 0.30
Waratahs 4.21 1.67 2.50
Brumbies 4.00 4.12 -0.10
Bulls 3.58 4.87 -1.30
Stormers 0.66 4.38 -3.70
Hurricanes 0.51 -1.44 1.90
Reds -0.78 0.58 -1.40
Blues -1.33 -1.92 0.60
Cheetahs -3.35 0.12 -3.50
Force -3.47 -5.37 1.90
Highlanders -4.52 -4.48 -0.00
Lions -4.99 -6.93 1.90
Rebels -5.73 -6.36 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Apr 04 33 – 30 5.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Apr 04 26 – 9 8.20 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Bulls Apr 05 25 – 20 0.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Force Apr 05 29 – 32 6.40 FALSE
5 Cheetahs vs. Chiefs Apr 05 43 – 43 -4.60 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 05 7 – 28 -5.40 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 05 11 – 22 2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Bulls Apr 11 Bulls -4.10
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 11 Brumbies -2.30
3 Chiefs vs. Rebels Apr 12 Chiefs 14.40
4 Force vs. Waratahs Apr 12 Waratahs -5.20
5 Cheetahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 Crusaders -5.60
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 12 Sharks -9.80

 

April 2, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 7.29 4.57 2.70
Crusaders 5.32 8.80 -3.50
Chiefs 4.96 4.38 0.60
Bulls 3.90 4.87 -1.00
Brumbies 3.44 4.12 -0.70
Waratahs 3.40 1.67 1.70
Stormers 1.46 4.38 -2.90
Hurricanes 0.19 -1.44 1.60
Reds -0.18 0.58 -0.80
Blues -0.76 -1.92 1.20
Cheetahs -3.67 0.12 -3.80
Lions -4.03 -6.93 2.90
Force -4.07 -5.37 1.30
Highlanders -4.34 -4.48 0.10
Rebels -5.91 -6.36 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 28 26 – 29 9.10 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 28 32 – 24 -8.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 29 30 – 12 4.40 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Stormers Mar 29 22 – 17 1.90 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 29 34 – 34 3.40 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 29 32 – 10 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Rebels Apr 04 Highlanders 5.60
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Apr 04 Brumbies 8.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Bulls Apr 05 Hurricanes 0.30
4 Reds vs. Force Apr 05 Reds 6.40
5 Cheetahs vs. Chiefs Apr 05 Chiefs -4.60
6 Lions vs. Crusaders Apr 05 Crusaders -5.40
7 Stormers vs. Waratahs Apr 05 Stormers 2.10

 

March 27, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 6.23 4.57 1.70
Crusaders 6.07 8.80 -2.70
Chiefs 4.72 4.38 0.30
Brumbies 4.45 4.12 0.30
Waratahs 4.38 1.67 2.70
Bulls 4.20 4.87 -0.70
Stormers 1.68 4.38 -2.70
Reds -0.48 0.58 -1.10
Hurricanes -0.57 -1.44 0.90
Blues -1.59 -1.92 0.30
Highlanders -3.50 -4.48 1.00
Cheetahs -3.66 0.12 -3.80
Lions -3.94 -6.93 3.00
Force -4.07 -5.37 1.30
Rebels -6.93 -6.36 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 21 35 – 31 -1.10 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 21 32 – 8 12.40 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Cheetahs Mar 22 40 – 30 5.40 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Stormers Mar 22 25 – 15 6.20 TRUE
5 Force vs. Chiefs Mar 22 18 – 15 -5.90 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Reds Mar 22 23 – 20 0.10 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 22 23 – 19 -0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 28 Crusaders 9.10
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 28 Brumbies -8.90
3 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 29 Blues 4.40
4 Reds vs. Stormers Mar 29 Reds 1.80
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 29 Bulls 3.50
6 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 29 Sharks 5.90

 

March 26, 2014

Graphic lie factor: sports edition

via Alberto Cairo, this gem from Malaprensa, a Spanish mediawatch site, originally from Marca.

futbol

 

This isn’t actually a pie chart, it’s a bar chart that has been horribly warped around a circle.  It shows top transfer fees in football (ie, soccer). One Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior has allegedly ended up with a transfer fee estimated at 111 million euros, through complicated arrangements. This would be a record; the originally announced figure was a mere 57 million euros, which would put Neymar in tenth place alongside Hernan Crespo

Malaprensa points out that the figures aren’t inflation-adjusted, and that they aren’t including comparable sets of payments for all the players. They don’t point out how bad the display is: compare the heights for 57 and 111 million euro, and then think about what the area comparison would be.

I’ve redrawn the bars in a sensible coordinate system,  showing the apparent differences based on the height, area, nominal euro amount, and euro amount adjusted for inflation (the last is from Malaprensa), with Crespo’s transfer fee scaled to 1 in each case

adjusted-futbol

It’s much less impressive when it’s shown accurately.

 

March 13, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

This week I don’t have full details because I have limited internet access and am having to copy the details from my computer.
 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

  Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 Sea Eagles 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 14 Cowboys -3.40
3 Warriors vs. Dragons Mar 15 Warriors 7.40
4 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 15 Storm 13.10
5 Roosters vs Eels Mar 15 Roosters 30.50
6 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Titans 19.40
7 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 16 Knights 15.30
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Mar 17 Bulldogs 4.10

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

  Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.27 8.80 -2.50
Sharks 5.75 4.57 1.20
Chiefs 4.67 4.38 0.30
Brumbies 4.02 4.12 -0.10
Bulls 3.92 4.87 -1.00
Waratahs 3.82 1.67 2.20
Stormers 2.58 4.38 -1.80
Reds 0.49 0.58 -0.10
Cheetahs -1.68 0.12 -1.80
Blues -1.79 -1.92 0.10
Hurricanes -1.89 -1.44 -0.50
Highlanders -3.34 -4.48 1.10
Lions -4.26 -6.93 2.70
Force -5.16 -5.37 0.20
Rebels -6.40 -6.36 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

  Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 07 21- 29 -1.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Cheetahs Mar 07 43 – 33 5.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 08 14 – 13 8.70 TRUE
4 Force vs. Rebels Mar 08 32 – 7 0.9 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 08 38 – 22 8.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 08 37 – 23 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

  Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Stormers Mar 14 Chiefs 6.10
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Mar 14 Crusaders -8.70
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 Hurricanes 3.80
4 Highlanders vs. Force Mar 15 Highlanders 5.80
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Brumbies 2.70
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 15 Lions 1.50
7 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 15 Sharks 7.80