Posts filed under Stat of the Week (363)

March 23, 2015

Stat of the Week Competition: March 21 – 27 2015

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday March 27 2015.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of March 21 – 27 2015 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

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Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: March 21 – 27 2015

If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

March 16, 2015

Stat of the Week Winner: March 7 – 13 2015

Thanks to Graeme Edgeler for winning our latest Stat of the Week competition and for his excellent explanation:

Statistic: “Māori adults have the highest levels of trust in the police, the health system & the courts. The lowest in the media”

Source: Tweet from Stats NZ

The statistic is written in a way that suggests Māori adults have the highest level of trust in the police etc., that is higher levels of trust than anyone else has in the police.

What the report actually shows is that the police etc. are the institutions in which Māori adults place the most trust as among institutions. It says nothing about whether Māori adults have more trust in them than anyone else. Anyone reading the tweet would think they did, but that was not even assessed.

It should be stat of the week, because, even if its not the most egregious stat this week, that fact that it is from Statistics New Zealand makes it worse.

Congratulations Graeme!

Stat of the Week Competition: March 14 – 20 2015

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday March 20 2015.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of March 14 – 20 2015 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

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Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: March 14 – 20 2015

If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

March 9, 2015

Stat of the Week Competition: March 7 – 13 2015

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday March 13 2015.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of March 7 – 13 2015 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

(more…)

Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: March 7 – 13 2015

If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

March 2, 2015

Stat of the Week Competition: February 28 – March 6 2015

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday March 6 2015.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of February 28 – March 6 2015 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

(more…)

Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: February 28 – March 6 2015

If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

February 25, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.49 10.42 -1.90
Waratahs 8.16 10.00 -1.80
Hurricanes 4.10 2.89 1.20
Brumbies 4.07 2.20 1.90
Sharks 3.21 3.91 -0.70
Stormers 3.03 1.68 1.30
Chiefs 2.65 2.23 0.40
Bulls 1.41 2.88 -1.50
Blues 0.56 1.44 -0.90
Highlanders -2.43 -2.54 0.10
Force -3.75 -4.67 0.90
Cheetahs -4.42 -5.55 1.10
Lions -4.56 -3.39 -1.20
Reds -6.00 -4.98 -1.00
Rebels -7.52 -9.53 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Feb 20 19 – 17 3.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 20 28 – 38 -12.10 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Hurricanes Feb 20 13 – 17 2.70 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 21 20 – 26 -7.10 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Force Feb 21 18 – 6 0.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Blues Feb 21 27 – 16 6.30 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Lions Feb 21 29 – 12 10.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Feb 27 Highlanders 8.10
2 Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 27 Hurricanes -3.40
3 Cheetahs vs. Blues Feb 27 Blues -0.50
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 Crusaders -1.80
5 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 28 Brumbies -7.60
6 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 28 Bulls 2.20
7 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 28 Stormers -3.60