Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|1||Kings vs. Blue Bulls||Sep 12||13 – 28||-5.10||TRUE|
|2||Griquas vs. Pumas||Sep 13||31 – 27||3.20||TRUE|
|3||Cheetahs vs. Sharks||Sep 13||30 – 30||1.60||FALSE|
|4||Lions vs. Western Province||Sep 13||35 – 33||1.10||TRUE|
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Lions vs. Pumas||Sep 19||Lions||13.00|
|2||Western Province vs. Griquas||Sep 20||Western Province||18.40|
|3||Blue Bulls vs. Sharks||Sep 20||Blue Bulls||0.60|
|4||Kings vs. Cheetahs||Sep 20||Cheetahs||-7.10|