September 29, 2020

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 15.67 15.13 0.50
Auckland 7.81 6.75 1.10
Canterbury 7.65 8.40 -0.80
Wellington 7.52 6.47 1.10
Bay of Plenty 4.65 8.21 -3.60
Waikato 3.87 1.31 2.60
Hawke’s Bay 0.49 0.91 -0.40
North Harbour 0.16 2.87 -2.70
Taranaki -3.34 -4.42 1.10
Otago -3.84 -4.03 0.20
Northland -7.58 -8.71 1.10
Counties Manukau -9.02 -8.18 -0.80
Southland -10.86 -14.04 3.20
Manawatu -13.07 -10.57 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 25 32 – 10 3.50 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Waikato Sep 26 34 – 17 14.20 TRUE
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Sep 26 11 – 10 -9.50 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 26 20 – 19 -5.10 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sep 27 50 – 12 21.70 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Otago Sep 27 19 – 30 5.70 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 27 15 – 24 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Oct 02 Auckland -0.20
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Oct 03 Counties Manukau 7.00
3 Northland vs. Taranaki Oct 03 Taranaki -1.20
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Oct 03 Canterbury 3.10
5 North Harbour vs. Tasman Oct 04 Tasman -12.50
6 Southland vs. Waikato Oct 04 Waikato -11.70
7 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 Hawke’s Bay -1.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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