NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1
Team Ratings for Finals Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.50 | 12.73 | 0.80 |
| Roosters | 10.89 | 12.25 | -1.40 |
| Panthers | 8.92 | -0.13 | 9.10 |
| Raiders | 6.96 | 7.06 | -0.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.41 | 2.85 | 3.60 |
| Eels | 2.38 | 2.80 | -0.40 |
| Sharks | -0.56 | 1.81 | -2.40 |
| Knights | -1.82 | -5.92 | 4.10 |
| Warriors | -1.84 | -5.17 | 3.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -3.07 | -0.18 | -2.90 |
| Sea Eagles | -4.77 | 1.05 | -5.80 |
| Dragons | -4.95 | -6.14 | 1.20 |
| Titans | -7.22 | -12.99 | 5.80 |
| Bulldogs | -7.62 | -2.52 | -5.10 |
| Cowboys | -8.05 | -3.95 | -4.10 |
| Broncos | -11.16 | -5.53 | -5.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Sep 24 | 32 – 16 | -2.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Knights | Sep 25 | 36 – 6 | -6.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Sep 25 | 60 – 8 | -6.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Sep 26 | 0 – 42 | -12.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Sep 26 | 28 – 38 | -4.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Eels | Sep 26 | 24 – 28 | -5.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | Sep 27 | 28 – 40 | 3.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Storm | Sep 27 | 30 – 22 | -18.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Finals Week 1
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Oct 02 | Panthers | 0.00 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Oct 03 | Raiders | 9.50 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Eels | Oct 03 | Storm | 11.10 |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Oct 04 | Rabbitohs | 10.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
what is panthers 00 outcome -no winner??
4 years ago
Panthers are the predicted winners. The prediction is given as 0.00 and is actually positive but then rounded to two decimal places. Essentially the probability of the Panthers winning is 0.5, but I give them as the winner because I never predict a draw.
4 years ago