Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches
Team Ratings for Postponed Matches
Another update because of a rescheduled match. And what is even weirder, another match listed as a Round 12 match. Can the season get any more messed up?
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 17.79 | 16.52 | 1.30 |
| Munster | 10.32 | 9.90 | 0.40 |
| Ulster | 9.06 | 4.58 | 4.50 |
| Edinburgh | 3.49 | 5.49 | -2.00 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 3.35 | 5.66 | -2.30 |
| Scarlets | 1.61 | 1.98 | -0.40 |
| Connacht | 1.40 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Cheetahs | -0.46 | -0.46 | 0.00 |
| Cardiff Blues | -0.59 | 0.08 | -0.70 |
| Ospreys | -1.90 | -2.82 | 0.90 |
| Treviso | -5.62 | -3.50 | -2.10 |
| Dragons | -8.19 | -7.85 | -0.30 |
| Southern Kings | -14.92 | -14.92 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -15.35 | -15.37 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 57 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets | Jan 10 | 29 – 20 | 1.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Connacht vs. Munster | Jan 10 | 10 – 16 | -3.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Jan 10 | 20 – 28 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Jan 10 | 29 – 20 | 14.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Matches
Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connacht vs. Ospreys | Jan 25 | Connacht | 10.80 |
| 2 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh | Jan 17 | Glasgow Warriors | 4.40 |
| 3 | Munster vs. Leinster | Jan 24 | Leinster | -4.10 |
| 4 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Jan 24 | Edinburgh | -12.30 |
| 5 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues | Jan 23 | Scarlets | 7.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »