Top 14 Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing-Metro 92 | 7.19 | 6.21 | 1.00 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.94 | 4.80 | 2.10 |
| La Rochelle | 5.72 | 2.32 | 3.40 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.30 | 3.22 | 1.10 |
| RC Toulonnais | 4.09 | 3.56 | 0.50 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.38 | 5.61 | -2.20 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.08 | 2.83 | 0.30 |
| Montpellier | 1.54 | 2.30 | -0.80 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.09 | -3.22 | 3.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.67 | -0.47 | -1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -3.60 | -4.48 | 0.90 |
| Brive | -3.85 | -3.26 | -0.60 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -5.22 | -4.13 | -1.10 |
| SU Agen | -11.43 | -4.72 | -6.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 93 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 18 | 19 – 21 | 7.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne | Jan 17 | 16 – 16 | 3.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. RC Toulonnais | Jan 18 | 23 – 29 | 8.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise | Jan 17 | 22 – 23 | 4.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 24 | Clermont Auvergne | 11.50 |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Jan 23 | La Rochelle | 16.40 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby | Jan 24 | Montpellier | 3.70 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Jan 24 | Racing-Metro 92 | 9.60 |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris | Jan 25 | RC Toulonnais | 9.50 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Brive | Jan 25 | Section Paloise | 5.70 |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 24 | Stade Toulousain | -12.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »