November 2, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.06 7.35 -1.30
Wasps 4.15 5.66 -1.50
Saracens 2.39 -5.00 7.40
Sale Sharks 1.52 4.96 -3.40
Harlequins 0.27 -1.08 1.30
Leicester Tigers 0.26 -6.14 6.40
Northampton Saints -0.91 -2.48 1.60
Gloucester -1.56 -1.02 -0.50
Bristol -1.80 1.28 -3.10
Bath -2.35 2.14 -4.50
Newcastle Falcons -3.10 -3.52 0.40
London Irish -6.82 -8.05 1.20
Worcester Warriors -9.72 -5.71 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 30 13 – 16 -3.10 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Wasps Oct 31 17 – 27 -1.00 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 31 33 – 45 0.90 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 31 26 – 55 6.70 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Oct 31 27 – 14 -8.90 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Saracens Nov 01 22 – 29 3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Nov 06 Leicester Tigers 7.10
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 07 Bristol 12.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 07 Exeter Chiefs 13.70
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 07 Sale Sharks 6.90
5 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 07 Saracens 13.70
6 Wasps vs. Harlequins Nov 08 Wasps 8.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »