November 9, 2021

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.50 10.71 -1.20
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 7.81 4.07 3.70
Wellington 5.93 5.62 0.30
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Canterbury 3.57 6.44 -2.90
Taranaki 2.29 -4.52 6.80
Waikato 2.22 2.52 -0.30
Bay of Plenty 0.78 5.20 -4.40
Otago -3.99 -3.47 -0.50
Northland -9.00 -4.75 -4.20
Manawatu -9.14 -14.72 5.60
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.34 -10.39 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Nov 03 22 – 14 15.20 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Otago Nov 05 27 – 25 11.00 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Nov 06 34 – 22 6.00 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 06 40 – 28 5.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Southland Nov 07 24 – 10 17.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Otago Nov 12 Otago -1.60
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Nov 13 Taranaki 17.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Nov 13 Hawke’s Bay 1.80
4 Waikato vs. Canterbury Nov 13 Waikato 2.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »