United Rugby Championship Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.72 | 14.79 | -0.10 |
| Munster | 10.95 | 10.69 | 0.30 |
| Ulster | 7.83 | 7.41 | 0.40 |
| Connacht | 3.83 | 1.72 | 2.10 |
| Edinburgh | 3.03 | 2.90 | 0.10 |
| Bulls | 2.61 | 3.65 | -1.00 |
| Glasgow | 2.60 | 3.69 | -1.10 |
| Stormers | 1.57 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Sharks | 0.34 | -0.07 | 0.40 |
| Ospreys | 0.03 | 0.94 | -0.90 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -0.89 | -0.11 | -0.80 |
| Scarlets | -1.76 | -0.77 | -1.00 |
| Lions | -3.08 | -3.91 | 0.80 |
| Benetton | -4.31 | -4.50 | 0.20 |
| Dragons | -5.75 | -6.92 | 1.20 |
| Zebre | -15.68 | -13.47 | -2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connacht vs. Ospreys | Nov 27 | 46 – 18 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Benetton vs. Glasgow | Nov 27 | 19 – 18 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Edinburgh | Nov 28 | 14 – 30 | -0.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Nov 28 | 10 – 20 | 14.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Benetton | Dec 04 | Edinburgh | 13.80 |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Connacht | Dec 04 | Leinster | 15.90 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Dec 04 | Sharks | 2.70 |
| 4 | Ospreys vs. Ulster | Dec 05 | Ulster | -1.30 |
| 5 | Glasgow vs. Dragons | Dec 05 | Glasgow | 14.90 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Lions | Dec 05 | Stormers | 9.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, is there is a reason why you left out the predictions for the South African derbies i.e. Sharks vs Bulls and Stormers vs Lions?
2 years ago
Thanks Jacques for the heads up. I only checked games on FlashScore and they didn’t have the Sharks vs Bulls at that time and still don’t have Stormers vs Lions. I should know to go to the actual URC website having been caught out by Covid induced changes multiple times over the last two years.
The additional games are there now.
2 years ago