United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 15.94 | 14.79 | 1.10 |
| Munster | 10.63 | 10.69 | -0.10 |
| Ulster | 8.17 | 7.41 | 0.80 |
| Stormers | 7.23 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
| Bulls | 7.22 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
| Sharks | 6.73 | -0.07 | 6.80 |
| Edinburgh | 3.66 | 2.90 | 0.80 |
| Glasgow | 1.76 | 3.69 | -1.90 |
| Ospreys | -0.83 | 0.94 | -1.80 |
| Scarlets | -1.23 | -0.77 | -0.50 |
| Connacht | -1.60 | 1.72 | -3.30 |
| Lions | -1.74 | -3.91 | 2.20 |
| Benetton | -3.68 | -4.50 | 0.80 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -7.42 | -0.11 | -7.30 |
| Dragons | -11.81 | -6.92 | -4.90 |
| Zebre | -16.99 | -13.47 | -3.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby | May 21 | 69 – 21 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Sharks | May 21 | 24 – 21 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Ospreys vs. Bulls | May 21 | 31 – 38 | -0.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Lions | May 22 | 11 – 21 | -2.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Zebre | May 22 | 22 – 20 | 24.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Scarlets vs. Stormers | May 22 | 21 – 26 | -1.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow | May 22 | 28 – 11 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Leinster vs. Munster | May 22 | 35 – 25 | 10.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Quarter Finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Jun 04 | Bulls | 5.50 |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Glasgow | Jun 05 | Leinster | 20.70 |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Edinburgh | Jun 05 | Stormers | 10.10 |
| 4 | Ulster vs. Munster | Jun 04 | Ulster | 2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »