June 14, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

 

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.47 13.43 2.00
Blues 12.01 9.26 2.70
Hurricanes 7.70 8.28 -0.60
Chiefs 7.61 5.56 2.00
Brumbies 5.52 3.61 1.90
Highlanders 3.31 6.54 -3.20
Reds 0.26 1.37 -1.10
Waratahs -2.59 -9.00 6.40
Western Force -6.94 -4.96 -2.00
Rebels -8.27 -5.79 -2.50
Moana Pasifika -11.64 -10.00 -1.60
Fijian Drua -14.14 -10.00 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 10 20 – 7 13.40 TRUE
2 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 11 20 – 19 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Jun 18 Blues 2.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Geoff Bailey

    David, you had me worried until I saw your predicted Blues win is for a game to be played in September and not tonight’s cliffhanger! On a serious note let the best team win and please let the ref not take centre stage with his cards. That 1 in 20 year Blues win down in CHC was heavily influenced by the questionable red card dished out to Scott Barrett.

    2 years ago

    • avatar

      Ah the perils of data entry. Date fixed now.

      No change to the prediction though: home ground advantage making the difference in a close game.

      2 years ago