June 14, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.79 14.79 2.00
Munster 9.78 10.69 -0.90
Ulster 9.27 7.41 1.90
Bulls 7.91 3.65 4.30
Stormers 7.06 0.00 7.10
Sharks 6.95 -0.07 7.00
Edinburgh 3.58 2.90 0.70
Glasgow -0.00 3.69 -3.70
Ospreys -0.83 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.23 -0.77 -0.50
Connacht -1.60 1.72 -3.30
Lions -1.74 -3.91 2.20
Benetton -3.68 -4.50 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.42 -0.11 -7.30
Dragons -11.81 -6.92 -4.90
Zebre -16.99 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 11 26 – 27 17.20 FALSE
2 Stormers vs. Ulster Jun 12 17 – 15 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Bulls Jun 19 Stormers 4.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »