August 2, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.17 14.26 -2.10
Storm 11.06 19.20 -8.10
Rabbitohs 6.21 15.81 -9.60
Sharks 3.42 -1.10 4.50
Roosters 3.36 2.23 1.10
Cowboys 3.31 -12.27 15.60
Eels 1.48 2.54 -1.10
Sea Eagles 1.29 10.99 -9.70
Broncos -0.93 -8.90 8.00
Raiders -0.93 -1.10 0.20
Dragons -4.32 -7.99 3.70
Bulldogs -5.13 -10.25 5.10
Wests Tigers -7.72 -10.94 3.20
Titans -7.76 1.05 -8.80
Knights -8.23 -6.54 -1.70
Warriors -9.27 -8.99 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 28 10 – 20 2.50 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 29 12 – 24 -15.40 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 29 34 – 10 -11.70 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Raiders Jul 30 24 – 36 -2.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 21 – 20 0.10 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 18 – 32 12.90 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 10 – 24 1.80 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 31 8 – 34 -1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 04 Roosters 7.30
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 05 Storm 21.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 05 Sea Eagles 2.80
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 06 Rabbitohs 21.00
5 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 06 Panthers -10.10
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 06 Sharks 10.70
7 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 07 Cowboys -5.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 07 Wests Tigers 3.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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