September 6, 2022

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.44 19.20 -6.80
Panthers 10.42 14.26 -3.80
Roosters 8.82 2.23 6.60
Rabbitohs 8.00 15.81 -7.80
Cowboys 6.39 -12.27 18.70
Sharks 6.22 -1.10 7.30
Eels 5.86 2.54 3.30
Raiders 2.54 -1.10 3.60
Dragons -2.73 -7.99 5.30
Sea Eagles -5.26 10.99 -16.30
Broncos -5.92 -8.90 3.00
Titans -6.32 1.05 -7.40
Bulldogs -8.29 -10.25 2.00
Knights -9.53 -6.54 -3.00
Warriors -11.12 -8.99 -2.10
Wests Tigers -13.52 -10.94 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 132 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Sep 01 22 – 14 -5.20 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 02 21 – 20 -0.20 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 02 26 – 16 2.60 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Titans Sep 03 26 – 27 1.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Broncos Sep 03 22 – 12 5.50 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers Sep 03 38 – 8 -4.90 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 04 16 – 38 -11.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Sep 04 10 – 56 -8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 09 Panthers 7.60
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 10 Storm 12.90
3 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Sharks 2.80
4 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 11 Roosters 3.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »