September 20, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.47 6.88 0.60
Stade Toulousain 6.61 6.34 0.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.18 5.27 -0.10
Montpellier 4.80 4.18 0.60
Racing 92 4.57 4.86 -0.30
Clermont 3.92 4.05 -0.10
Toulon 3.44 4.09 -0.70
Lyon 2.74 3.10 -0.40
Castres Olympique 2.54 2.87 -0.30
Stade Francais -0.78 -1.05 0.30
Section Paloise -1.76 -2.12 0.40
USA Perpignan -3.71 -2.75 -1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -3.87 -4.26 0.40
Brive -3.89 -4.20 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Sep 17 33 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Montpellier Sep 18 26 – 31 -1.90 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Sep 18 43 – 8 16.50 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Sep 18 32 – 19 7.80 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Sep 18 26 – 16 9.50 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 18 26 – 16 -2.70 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Clermont Sep 19 30 – 29 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Sep 24 Toulon -0.70
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 25 Bordeaux Begles -2.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Sep 25 Castres Olympique 12.90
4 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Sep 25 Lyon 10.00
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sep 25 Montpellier 13.10
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Sep 25 Stade Toulousain 8.50
7 Clermont vs. La Rochelle Sep 26 Clermont 2.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »