Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8
Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 7.35 | 2.00 | 5.30 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.12 | 5.87 | -0.70 |
| North Harbour | 4.79 | 2.31 | 2.50 |
| Bay of Plenty | 4.64 | 0.10 | 4.50 |
| Waikato | 4.27 | 2.00 | 2.30 |
| Wellington | 4.24 | 3.58 | 0.70 |
| Tasman | 4.05 | 5.94 | -1.90 |
| Auckland | 3.44 | 4.50 | -1.10 |
| Otago | -0.39 | -1.63 | 1.20 |
| Taranaki | -0.69 | 3.63 | -4.30 |
| Counties Manukau | -6.22 | -6.32 | 0.10 |
| Northland | -6.89 | -6.68 | -0.20 |
| Southland | -9.49 | -7.01 | -2.50 |
| Manawatu | -11.90 | -5.97 | -5.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 62 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury vs. Auckland | Sep 23 | 38 – 20 | 5.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 24 | 20 – 14 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Tasman vs. Northland | Sep 24 | 52 – 17 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Wellington vs. Waikato | Sep 24 | 34 – 6 | 0.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Manawatu vs. Otago | Sep 25 | 35 – 54 | -7.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | North Harbour vs. Taranaki | Sep 25 | 35 – 19 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Southland vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 25 | 30 – 26 | -2.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Northland | Sep 28 | Bay of Plenty | 14.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David,
I just want to say thank you for the ongoing blog, it’s super helpful and has been extremely fruitful.
Cheers
2 years ago