Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 8.97 | 7.93 | 1.00 |
| Gloucester | 5.43 | 5.92 | -0.50 |
| Harlequins | 4.18 | 3.92 | 0.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.14 | 4.14 | 0.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.41 | 3.67 | -0.30 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.94 | 3.99 | -1.00 |
| Wasps | 0.98 | 0.77 | 0.20 |
| London Irish | -1.67 | -1.65 | -0.00 |
| Bristol | -2.41 | -2.43 | 0.00 |
| Saracens | -4.51 | -5.00 | 0.50 |
| Bath | -9.36 | -9.15 | -0.20 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -10.32 | -8.76 | -1.60 |
| Worcester Warriors | -10.71 | -12.27 | 1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Wasps | Sep 24 | 31 – 39 | -5.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. London Irish | Sep 25 | 40 – 36 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers | Sep 25 | 21 – 41 | 0.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Gloucester | Sep 25 | 41 – 39 | -6.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons | Sep 25 | 39 – 5 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Sep 26 | 43 – 42 | 4.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol | Oct 01 | Bristol | -3.40 |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors | Oct 02 | Gloucester | 20.60 |
| 3 | London Irish vs. Bath | Oct 02 | London Irish | 12.20 |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 02 | Sale Sharks | 5.20 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 02 | Leicester Tigers | -9.00 |
| 6 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 03 | Harlequins | 5.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »