September 27, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.29 16.79 -0.50
Ulster 10.28 9.27 1.00
Munster 8.08 9.78 -1.70
Bulls 7.70 7.84 -0.10
Stormers 7.61 7.14 0.50
Sharks 6.33 6.95 -0.60
Edinburgh 4.99 3.58 1.40
Glasgow -0.10 -0.00 -0.10
Ospreys -0.87 -0.83 -0.00
Lions -1.86 -1.74 -0.10
Scarlets -2.06 -1.23 -0.80
Connacht -2.61 -1.60 -1.00
Benetton -3.30 -3.68 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -7.36 -7.42 0.10
Dragons -11.67 -11.81 0.10
Zebre -15.41 -16.99 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Sep 24 37 – 42 -18.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 24 52 – 24 10.30 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Benetton Sep 24 42 – 10 23.20 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Sep 24 39 – 55 -6.90 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 24 33 – 31 8.50 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Connacht Sep 25 38 – 15 13.80 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Lions Sep 25 27 – 28 6.30 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Munster Sep 26 23 – 17 -17.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Connacht Oct 01 Bulls 14.80
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Oct 01 Lions -1.00
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Oct 01 Leinster -2.00
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Oct 01 Stormers 7.10
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 02 Ospreys 3.70
6 Munster vs. Zebre Oct 02 Munster 28.00
7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Oct 02 Benetton 3.30
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 02 Sharks -13.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »