October 4, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.79 16.79 0.00
Ulster 9.78 9.27 0.50
Stormers 8.07 7.14 0.90
Bulls 7.62 7.84 -0.20
Munster 7.51 9.78 -2.30
Sharks 5.75 6.95 -1.20
Edinburgh 4.53 3.58 1.00
Ospreys -0.32 -0.83 0.50
Glasgow -0.65 -0.00 -0.60
Lions -1.29 -1.74 0.50
Scarlets -2.48 -1.23 -1.20
Connacht -2.53 -1.60 -0.90
Benetton -2.88 -3.68 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.93 -7.42 -0.50
Dragons -11.09 -11.81 0.70
Zebre -14.84 -16.99 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Connacht Oct 01 28 – 14 14.80 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Oct 01 18 – 31 -1.00 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Oct 01 13 – 20 -2.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Oct 01 34 – 18 7.10 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 02 32 – 17 3.70 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Zebre Oct 02 21 – 5 28.00 TRUE
7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Oct 02 34 – 23 3.30 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 02 19 – 20 -13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Munster Oct 08 Munster -6.00
2 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 08 Edinburgh 10.30
3 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 09 Stormers -18.40
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 09 Leinster 15.50
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 09 Scarlets 9.50
6 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 09 Bulls -3.80
7 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 09 Ulster 14.60
8 Benetton vs. Dragons Oct 09 Benetton 12.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »