Top 14 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.34 | 6.34 | 2.00 |
| La Rochelle | 5.75 | 6.88 | -1.10 |
| Racing 92 | 4.47 | 4.86 | -0.40 |
| Montpellier | 4.23 | 4.18 | 0.00 |
| Toulon | 3.82 | 4.09 | -0.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.59 | 5.27 | -1.70 |
| Clermont | 3.46 | 4.05 | -0.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 2.70 | 2.87 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais | 2.30 | -1.05 | 3.40 |
| Lyon | 2.14 | 3.10 | -1.00 |
| Section Paloise | -0.82 | -2.12 | 1.30 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -2.08 | -4.26 | 2.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.65 | -2.75 | -1.90 |
| Brive | -5.99 | -4.20 | -1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. La Rochelle | Nov 06 | 17 – 19 | -5.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Nov 06 | 20 – 25 | 13.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 06 | 26 – 20 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 06 | 44 – 20 | 14.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais | Nov 06 | 16 – 16 | 13.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 07 | 33 – 7 | 0.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Nov 07 | 16 – 26 | 7.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 27 | La Rochelle | 9.60 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Nov 27 | Montpellier | 12.80 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Brive | Nov 27 | Section Paloise | 11.70 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Toulon | Nov 27 | Stade Francais | 5.00 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 27 | Bordeaux Begles | -1.70 |
| 6 | Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 28 | Lyon | 0.30 |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Clermont | Nov 28 | Racing 92 | 7.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »