November 29, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.05 16.79 1.30
Ulster 9.71 9.27 0.40
Bulls 7.83 7.84 -0.00
Stormers 7.50 7.14 0.40
Munster 6.64 9.78 -3.10
Edinburgh 4.91 3.58 1.30
Sharks 4.06 6.95 -2.90
Connacht 0.44 -1.60 2.00
Glasgow -0.23 -0.00 -0.20
Lions -1.40 -1.74 0.30
Ospreys -2.21 -0.83 -1.40
Scarlets -4.18 -1.23 -2.90
Cardiff Rugby -4.63 -7.42 2.80
Benetton -4.80 -3.68 -1.10
Dragons -9.60 -11.81 2.20
Zebre -16.06 -16.99 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Scarlets Nov 26 36 – 19 16.00 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 26 36 – 15 31.30 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 24 – 17 -6.40 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Nov 26 43 – 26 13.90 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Glasgow Nov 27 40 – 5 21.50 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Connacht Nov 27 24 – 17 11.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Dragons Nov 28 33 – 25 13.90 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 28 0 – 35 16.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys Dec 03 Sharks 10.80
2 Edinburgh vs. Munster Dec 03 Edinburgh 2.80
3 Stormers vs. Dragons Dec 04 Stormers 21.60
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Dec 04 Glasgow -11.30
5 Connacht vs. Benetton Dec 04 Connacht 9.70
6 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 04 Bulls 17.00
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 04 Leinster 12.30
8 Lions vs. Scarlets Dec 05 Lions 7.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »