Top 14 Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.70 | 6.34 | 1.40 |
| La Rochelle | 7.04 | 6.88 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 4.87 | 4.86 | 0.00 |
| Stade Francais | 4.77 | -1.05 | 5.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.53 | 5.27 | -0.70 |
| Montpellier | 4.23 | 4.18 | 0.00 |
| Toulon | 3.49 | 4.09 | -0.60 |
| Clermont | 1.57 | 4.05 | -2.50 |
| Lyon | 1.49 | 3.10 | -1.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.18 | 2.87 | -1.70 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -1.25 | -4.26 | 3.00 |
| Section Paloise | -1.95 | -2.12 | 0.20 |
| Brive | -5.10 | -4.20 | -0.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.29 | -2.75 | -2.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Jan 08 | 23 – 15 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Toulon | Jan 08 | 26 – 17 | -2.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 08 | 31 – 20 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 08 | 30 – 7 | 4.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Lyon | Jan 08 | 12 – 21 | 3.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 08 | 26 – 7 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Racing 92 | Jan 09 | 17 – 12 | 6.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive | Jan 28 | Aviron Bayonnais | 10.40 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jan 28 | Castres Olympique | 3.20 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Clermont | Jan 28 | Lyon | 6.40 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle | Jan 28 | Racing 92 | 4.30 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Jan 28 | Stade Toulousain | 10.00 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Jan 28 | Toulon | 11.90 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais | Jan 28 | Stade Francais | -3.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »