January 31, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.83 16.79 0.00
Munster 9.56 9.78 -0.20
Ulster 9.49 9.27 0.20
Bulls 6.75 7.84 -1.10
Stormers 6.68 7.14 -0.50
Sharks 6.00 6.95 -1.00
Glasgow 2.74 -0.00 2.70
Connacht 1.87 -1.60 3.50
Edinburgh 1.66 3.58 -1.90
Ospreys -1.51 -0.83 -0.70
Benetton -3.56 -3.68 0.10
Lions -3.59 -1.74 -1.80
Scarlets -3.69 -1.23 -2.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.43 -7.42 2.00
Dragons -10.80 -11.81 1.00
Zebre -16.96 -16.99 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Jan 28 37 – 28 -7.40 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Jan 28 35 – 5 5.40 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Munster Jan 29 30 – 40 -8.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Jan 29 28 – 42 -7.80 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 29 38 – 14 27.40 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Jan 29 19 – 22 0.90 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Lions Jan 29 43 – 24 8.90 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Jan 30 24 – 28 -11.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 04 Sharks 3.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »