March 14, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 4.36 7.93 -3.60
Sale Sharks 4.20 4.14 0.10
London Irish 3.43 -1.65 5.10
Bristol 1.26 -2.43 3.70
Saracens 1.25 -5.00 6.20
Harlequins 1.23 3.92 -2.70
Exeter Chiefs 1.00 3.67 -2.70
Northampton Saints 0.43 3.99 -3.60
Gloucester 0.31 5.92 -5.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bath -6.88 -9.15 2.30
Newcastle Falcons -7.67 -8.76 1.10
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 97 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 11 45 – 26 10.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 12 24 – 5 12.40 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Mar 12 36 – 18 2.00 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 13 5 – 26 2.80 FALSE
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 13 51 – 26 2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.40
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Mar 26 Leicester Tigers 7.60
3 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 26 London Irish 7.50
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Mar 26 Gloucester -3.50
5 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 26 Saracens 4.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »