March 28, 2023

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

I was not aware the Currie Cup was starting, and only just saw the results recently. Sorry that I missed the first three rounds: I had always intended to give predictions for it this year again.

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 8.86 4.67 4.20
Pumas 5.64 2.84 2.80
Griquas -0.36 1.39 -1.80
Sharks -0.63 -1.30 0.70
Bulls -1.61 3.43 -5.00
Western Province -1.85 -3.24 1.40
Lions -7.50 -7.79 0.30
Griffons -12.56 -10.00 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griffons Mar 25 41 – 26 8.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 25 32 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Griquas Mar 25 28 – 13 9.10 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Western Province Mar 26 20 – 7 3.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Bulls Apr 01 Bulls -6.90
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Apr 01 Cheetahs 7.20
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 02 Sharks -2.90
4 Western Province vs. Griquas Apr 02 Western Province 2.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »