NRL Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12.84 | 12.99 | -0.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 11.59 | 9.35 | 2.20 |
| Storm | 5.92 | 11.21 | -5.30 |
| Sharks | 2.90 | 4.50 | -1.60 |
| Eels | 2.88 | 6.78 | -3.90 |
| Raiders | 1.56 | 1.98 | -0.40 |
| Roosters | 1.49 | 7.64 | -6.20 |
| Cowboys | 0.77 | 6.23 | -5.50 |
| Broncos | 0.51 | -5.92 | 6.40 |
| Dragons | -3.16 | -2.73 | -0.40 |
| Dolphins | -4.58 | -10.00 | 5.40 |
| Warriors | -5.46 | -11.12 | 5.70 |
| Sea Eagles | -5.79 | -5.26 | -0.50 |
| Titans | -6.10 | -6.32 | 0.20 |
| Knights | -8.72 | -9.53 | 0.80 |
| Bulldogs | -9.11 | -8.29 | -0.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -9.54 | -13.52 | 4.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Broncos | May 11 | 24 – 16 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Warriors | May 12 | 12 – 24 | 4.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Roosters | May 12 | 48 – 4 | 10.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | May 13 | 20 – 0 | 25.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Dragons | May 13 | 42 – 22 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Eels | May 13 | 26 – 18 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Titans | May 14 | 46 – 26 | -2.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Sharks | May 14 | 14 – 20 | -5.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Panthers | May 18 | Panthers | -9.30 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Roosters | May 19 | Roosters | -1.60 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Eels | May 19 | Rabbitohs | 11.70 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Knights | May 20 | Sharks | 14.60 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | May 20 | Cowboys | -7.30 |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. Storm | May 20 | Storm | -7.50 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | May 21 | Titans | -0.00 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | May 21 | Raiders | 10.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
My first time commenting here, Just wanna say thanks for your time and effort in doing all the analysis to come out with the best tips
11 months ago
I’m new here and this is my first time commenting so please I just want to ask one question.
Can somebody please help me tip the total match point for all the matches in nrl round 12??
Thank-you very much
Love from PAPUA NEW GUINEA❤️💯
11 months ago
Good luck with that.
Only someone with considerable expertise and a good amount of time would be able to do that, and even then the accuracy achievable would be low in my view.
11 months ago
thanks for the tips.
11 months ago