May 23, 2023

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

 

 

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 5.28 2.84 2.40
Cheetahs 3.80 4.67 -0.90
Sharks 3.50 -1.30 4.80
Western Province 0.31 -3.24 3.60
Bulls -0.61 3.43 -4.00
Griquas -2.60 1.39 -4.00
Lions -4.77 -7.79 3.00
Griffons -14.92 -10.00 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas May 20 22 – 14 -2.50 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs May 20 35 – 23 2.30 TRUE
3 Griffons vs. Griquas May 21 21 – 47 -5.60 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Bulls May 21 32 – 33 0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Sharks May 27 Sharks -14.40
2 Western Province vs. Lions May 27 Western Province 9.10
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas May 28 Cheetahs 10.40
4 Pumas vs. Bulls May 28 Pumas 9.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »