Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.36 | 6.34 | 1.00 |
| La Rochelle | 6.93 | 6.88 | 0.10 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.80 | 5.27 | -0.50 |
| Racing 92 | 4.43 | 4.86 | -0.40 |
| Lyon | 3.87 | 3.10 | 0.80 |
| Toulon | 3.84 | 4.09 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.36 | -1.05 | 4.40 |
| Montpellier | 2.67 | 4.18 | -1.50 |
| Clermont | 2.03 | 4.05 | -2.00 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.04 | 2.87 | -2.80 |
| Section Paloise | -0.21 | -2.12 | 1.90 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -1.41 | -4.26 | 2.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.60 | -2.75 | -0.90 |
| Brive | -6.85 | -4.20 | -2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 182 matches played, 132 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan | May 29 | 26 – 16 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | May 29 | 32 – 25 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais | May 29 | 14 – 10 | 10.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Aviron Bayonnais | May 29 | 53 – 19 | 10.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | May 29 | 35 – 10 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Brive | May 29 | 54 – 10 | 19.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 29 | 35 – 19 | 4.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Quarter-finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 | Jun 03 | Stade Francais | 5.40 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jun 05 | Lyon | 5.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »