June 6, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.24 12.99 -0.80
Rabbitohs 9.09 9.35 -0.30
Eels 4.45 6.78 -2.30
Storm 4.31 11.21 -6.90
Sharks 2.60 4.50 -1.90
Broncos 1.69 -5.92 7.60
Raiders 0.36 1.98 -1.60
Roosters 0.29 7.64 -7.40
Cowboys -0.12 6.23 -6.30
Dragons -2.82 -2.73 -0.10
Sea Eagles -4.59 -5.26 0.70
Warriors -4.81 -11.12 6.30
Dolphins -4.90 -10.00 5.10
Wests Tigers -6.42 -13.52 7.10
Titans -6.79 -6.32 -0.50
Bulldogs -8.08 -8.29 0.20
Knights -8.48 -9.53 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 02 19 – 20 -4.60 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Jun 03 30 – 8 3.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 03 28 – 46 -11.90 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jun 03 12 – 20 5.70 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 04 25 – 24 13.00 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Storm Jun 04 45 – 20 -4.80 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 04 26 – 18 19.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 Titans 2.60
2 Raiders vs. Warriors Jun 09 Raiders 11.20
3 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Jun 09 Sea Eagles 3.30
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 Rabbitohs -8.90
5 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 10 Broncos 13.20
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 10 Panthers -9.00
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 11 Storm 4.70
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 12 Eels -9.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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